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Experimental real-time multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall during monsoon 2008: Large-scale medium-range aspects 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A K MITRA G R IYENGAR V R DURAI J SANJAY T N KRISHNAMURTI A MISHRA D R SIKKA 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(1):27-52
Realistic simulation/prediction of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on various space–time scales is a challenging scientific
task. Compared to mid-latitudes, a proportional skill improvement in the prediction of monsoon rainfall in the medium range
has not happened in recent years. Global models and data assimilation techniques are being improved for monsoon/tropics. However,
multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasting is gaining popularity, as it has the potential to provide more information for practical
forecasting in terms of making a consensus forecast and handling model uncertainties. As major centers are exchanging model
output in near real-time, MME is a viable inexpensive way of enhancing the forecasting skill and information content. During
monsoon 2008, on an experimental basis, an MME forecasting of large-scale monsoon precipitation in the medium range was carried
out in real-time at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India. Simple ensemble mean (EMN) giving
equal weight to member models, bias-corrected ensemble mean (BCEMn) and MME forecast, where different weights are given to
member models, are the products of the algorithm tested here. In general, the aforementioned products from the multi-model
ensemble forecast system have a higher skill than individual model forecasts. The skill score for the Indian domain and other
sub-regions indicates that the BCEMn produces the best result, compared to EMN and MME. Giving weights to different models
to obtain an MME product helps to improve individual member models only marginally. It is noted that for higher rainfall values,
the skill of the global model rainfall forecast decreases rapidly beyond day-3, and hence for day-4 and day-5, the MME products
could not bring much improvement over member models. However, up to day-3, the MME products were always better than individual
member models. 相似文献
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The Nellore Schist Belt (NSB) is a curvilinear Archaean schist belt, approximately 350 km long and 8–50 km wide. The Nellore Schist Belt is considered to be Neoarchean in age and stratigraphically NSB is classified as the western Udayagiri group (dominated by metasediments) and underlying eastern Vinjamuru group (dominated by metabasalts). There is a long controversy regarding the contact relationship between Udayagiri and Vinjamuru groups. Earlier researchers regarded the contact between two groups as tectonic on the basis of metamorphism. A shear zone and a possible thrust contact between the two groups have also been reported. On the basis of present study, an NNW–SSE trending, westerly dipping inclined transpressional zone is found at the contact between Udayagiri and Vinjamuru groups in the central western part of the NSB. Kinematic analysis of both the hanging wall and foot wall of the westerly dipping thrust zone shows presence of strong S1 schistosity, shear bands and S-C fabric in both strike and dip section along with east-verging overturned fold, westerly dipping inverted beds, suggesting partitioning of non-coaxial deformation in strike-slip and dip-slip component along with a pure shear component. Strike-slip is more prominent in the northern part of the contact than the southern part. The presence of steep to moderate northerly plunging non-orthogonal stretching/mineral elongation lineation all along the contact and clockwise shift of plot of the same in stereo net from its orthogonal position and presence of other kinematic indicators in plan suggests a right lateral strike-slip component. As a whole, it is suggested that Udayagiri group is thrusted over Vinjamuru group along a westerly dipping thrust plane with a right lateral strike-slip motion and simultaneous E–W contraction. 相似文献
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