Process‐based hydrological modelling: The potential of a bottom‐up approach for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Manuel Antonetti  Simon Scherrer  Peter Matthias Kienzler  Michael Margreth  Massimiliano Zappa 《水文研究》2017,31(16):2902-2920

Conceptual rainfall–runoff models are a valuable tool for predictions in ungauged catchments. However, most of them rely on calibration to determine parameter values. Improving the representation of runoff processes in models is an attractive alternative to calibration. Such an approach requires a straightforward, a priori parameter allocation procedure applicable on a wide range of spatial scales. However, such a procedure has not been developed yet. In this paper, we introduce a process‐based runoff generation module (RGM‐PRO) as a spin‐off of the traditional runoff generation module of the PREVAH hydrological modelling system. RGM‐PRO is able to exploit information from maps of runoff types, which are developed on the basis of field investigations and expert knowledge. It is grid based, and within each grid cell, the process heterogeneity is considered to avoid information loss due to grid resolution. The new module is event based, and initial conditions are assimilated and downscaled from continuous simulations of PREVAH, which are also available for real‐time applications. Four parameter allocation strategies were developed, on the basis of the results of sprinkling experiments on 60‐m² hillslope plots at several grassland locations in Switzerland, and were tested on five catchments on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps. For the same catchments, simulation results obtained with the best parameter allocation strategy were compared with those obtained with different configurations of the traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, which was also applied as an event‐based module here. These configurations include a version that avoids calibration, one that transfers calibrated parameters, and one that uses regionalised parameter values. RGM‐PRO simulated heavy events in a more realistic way than the uncalibrated traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, and, in some instances, it even exceeded the performance of the calibrated traditional one. The use of information on the spatial distribution of runoff types additionally proved to be valuable as a regionalisation technique and showed advantages over the other regionalisation approaches, also in terms of robustness and transferability.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

Sven Fuchs  Margreth Keiler  Sergey Sokratov  Alexander Shnyparkov 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(3):1217-1241

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.  相似文献   

Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review   总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3  

Melanie S. Kappes  Margreth Keiler  Kirsten von Elverfeldt  Thomas Glade 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1925-1958

Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties.  相似文献   

Complexity and non‐linearity in earth surface processes – concepts,methods and applications          下载免费PDF全文

Arnaud J.A.M. Temme  Margreth Keiler  Derek Karssenberg  Andreas Lang 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(9):1270-1274

Complexity has long been recognized and is increasingly becoming mainstream in geomorphology. However, the relative novelty of various concepts and techniques associated to it means that ambiguity continues to surround complexity. In this commentary, we present and discuss a variety of recent contributions that have the potential to help clarify issues and advance the use of complexity in geomorphology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Benthic foraminifera as bioindicator for cold-water coral reef ecosystems along the Irish margin     

Stephan Margreth  Andres Rüggeberg  Silvia Spezzaferri 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(12):2216-2234

Cold-water coral ecosystems building cold-water carbonate mounds occur worldwide and are especially developed along the European margin, from northern Norway to the Gulf of Cadiz. A remarkable mound province is documented southwest of Ireland along the Porcupine and Rockall Banks. In this area carbonate mounds are formed in water depths between 500 and 1200 m and are often densely settled by cold-water coral ecosystems offering many ecological niches for benthic foraminifera. We investigated total (unstained) benthic foraminiferal assemblages from surface sediments (0–1 cm, >63 μm size fraction) of this region with the aim to trace their distribution patterns and to test if they can be used as bioindicators for facies characterization in different parts of carbonate mound systems. Our quantitative data were further statistically treated with non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) based on Bray–Curtis similarity matrix to highlight community patterns that were not readily apparent. Our results indicate that different benthic foraminiferal assemblages characterize different facies along cold-water carbonate mounds and are related to the environmental conditions and available substrates. The following facies can be described: (1) the Off-Mound Facies is dominated by uvigerinids and other infaunal species; (2) the Dropstone Facies is characterized by infaunal Globocassidulina subglobosa and attached-epifaunal Cibicidoides sp.; (3) the Dead Coral Facies is characterised by epifaunal species (e.g., Planulina ariminensis, Hanzawaia boueana) and infaunal species (Spiroplectinella wrightii, Angulogerina angulosa, Epistominella vitrea); (4) the Living Coral Facies includes both infaunal and epifaunal species, but is dominated by the epifaunal Discanomalina coronata; and (5) the Sandwave Facies contains high abundances of epifaunal species including D. coronata. Based on this distribution, we propose D. coronata, as an indicator species to identify active mounds and/or living cold-water coral ecosystems. Our results also emphasise the importance of studying the small size fractions that yield many infaunal species. A causal link exists between distribution patterns of benthic foraminifera and cold-water coral facies, thus providing an independent tool to identify and describe the different facies in this setting.  相似文献   

A method to reconstruct flood scenarios using field interviews and hydrodynamic modelling: application to the 2017 Suleja and Tafa,Nigeria flood     

Malgwi  Mark Bawa  Ramirez  Jorge Alberto  Zischg  Andreas  Zimmermann  Markus  Schürmann  Stefan  Keiler  Margreth 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(2):1781-1805

Natural Hazards - The scarcity of model input and calibration data has limited efforts in reconstructing scenarios of past floods in many regions globally. Recently, the number of studies that use...  相似文献