Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mabel C. Marulanda  Martha L. Carreño  Omar D. Cardona  Mario G. Ordaz  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):59-84

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.  相似文献   

UNISDR’s global exposure database and disaster risk: current developments and required improvements     

Marulanda  M. C.  Salgado-G&#;lvez  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):185-212

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Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of seismic risk resulting from multiple hazard models     

Marulanda  M. C.  de la Llera  J. C.  Bernal  G. A.  Cardona  O. D. 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):3203-3227

Natural Hazards - Quite frequently, catastrophes impact populated areas of the world, and hence the need for proper risk evaluations that support mitigation and management processes. Because of the...  相似文献   

Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country     

Mabel C. Marulanda  Omar D. Cardona  Miguel G. Mora  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2071-2088

Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are probabilistic metrics useful for risk analyses, for designing strategies for risk reduction and mitigation, for emergency response strategies and for risk financing. This article presents, based on probabilistic risk models, the design and implementation of a risk transfer instrument to cover the private buildings of the city of Manizales, Colombia. This voluntary collective instrument provides financial protection to both, the estate tax payers and the low-income homeowners through a cross-subsidy strategy; besides, it promotes not only the insurance culture but also the solidarity of the community. The city administration and the insurance industry are promoting this program using the mechanism of the property tax payment. This collective insurance helps the government to access key resources for low-income householders recovery and improve disaster risk management at local level.  相似文献   

Current status of coral takeover by an encrusting excavating sponge in a Caribbean reef          下载免费PDF全文

Ángela Marulanda‐Gómez  Mateo López‐Victoria  Sven Zea 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(1)

On Caribbean reefs, the excavating sponge Cliona tenuis opportunistically colonized dead skeletons of the elkhorn coral Acropora palmata after its massive die‐off in the 1980s. Further C. tenuis population increase occurred by colonization of other coral species, causing coral tissue death through undermining of live tissue and lateral growth. To follow up on a previous (2001) characterization of the abundance and size structure of C. tenuis at Islas del Rosario (Colombia), these factors were again estimated in 2014, along with its substratum utilization. The fate of sponge individuals colonizing massive coral colonies marked in 2001–2004 was also followed. By 2014 C. tenuis was still disproportionally occupying dead A. palmata branches, but its abundance and density, and the cover of other benthic elements, had not significantly changed over the 13‐year period, suggesting that a stasis has been reached. Cliona tenuis was thus initially favored in the 1980s, but substratum monopolization did not occur. From 2001 to 2014, small individuals increased in number and very large ones decreased, suggesting not only that new recruitment is occurring, but also that larger sponges are shrinking or fragmenting. Marked sponges continued killing corals over the first few years, but over longer times they retreated or died, allowing corals to resume upward growth. However, it could not be ascertained whether the sponge retreat was age‐related or the result of some environmental effect. The apparent preference for recently dead clean coral by larvae of C. tenuis and its current dynamics of recruitment, growth, fragmentation and mortality have stabilized its space occupation at Islas del Rosario.  相似文献   

Unravelling the widening of the earliest Andean northern orogen: Maastrichtian to early Eocene intra‐basinal deformation in the northern Eastern Cordillera of Colombia     

Germn Bayona  Mauricio Baquero  Catalina Ramírez  Manuela Tabares  Ana M. Salazar  Giovanny Nova  Edward Duarte  Andrs Pardo  Angelo Plata  Carlos Jaramillo  Guillermo Rodríguez  Victor Caballero  Agustín Cardona  Camilo Montes  Sebastin Gmez Marulanda  Andrs L. Crdenas‐Rozo 《Basin Research》2021,33(1):809-845

The onset of deformation in the northern Andes is overprinted by subsequent stages of basin deformation, complicating the examination of competing models illustrating potential location of earliest synorogenic basins and uplifts. To establish the width of the earliest northern Andean orogen, we carried out field mapping, palynological dating, sedimentary, stratigraphic and provenance analyses in Campanian to lower Eocene units exposed in the northern Eastern Cordillera of Colombia (Cocuy region) and compare the results with coeval succession in adjacent basins. The onset of deformation is recorded in earliest Maastrichtian time, as terrigenous detritus arrived into the basin marking the end of chemical precipitation and the onset of clastic deposition produced by the uplift of a western source area dominated by shaly Cretaceous rocks. Disconformable contacts within the upper Maastrichtian to middle Palaeocene succession document increasing supply of quartzose sandy detritus from Cretaceous quartzose rocks exposed in eastern source areas. The continued unroofing of both source areas produced a rapid shift in depositional environments from shallow marine in Maastrichtian to fluvial‐lacustrine systems during the Palaeocene‐early Eocene. Supply of immature Jurassic sandstones from nearby western uplifts, together with localized plutonic and volcanic Cretaceous rocks, caused a shift in Palaeocene sandstones composition from quartzarenites to litharenites. Supply of detrital sandy fragments, unstable heavy minerals and Cretaceous to Ordovician detrital zircons, were derived from nearby uplifted blocks and from SW fluvial systems within the synorogenic basin, instead of distal basement rocks. The presence of volcanic rock fragments and 51–59 Ma volcanic zircons constrain magmatism within the basin. The Maastrichtian–Palaeocene sequence studied here documents crustal deformation that correlates with coeval deformation farther south in Ecuador and Peru. Slab flattening of the subducting Caribbean plate produced a wider orogen (>400 km) with a continental magmatic arc and intra‐basinal deformation and magmatism.  相似文献