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Diaz Hector Mazzorana Bruno Gems Bernhard Rojas Ivan Santibañez Nicole Iribarren Pablo Pino Mario Iroumé Andrés 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(3):3099-3120
Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.
相似文献2.
A sound, evidence-based hazard mapping requires the analysis of stochastic processes taking place at critical configurations
(e.g., bridges, levees) in order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities. Here,
we discuss an approach aiming to support an enhanced determination of flood hazard patterns by identifying within alluvial
fans and river corridors two main types of spatial domains based on the predictability of their dynamics, i.e., stochastic
and quasi-deterministic domains. The former represents critical configurations whose dynamic evolution (e.g., clogging by
large wood, failure due to breaching) cannot be realistically specified by deterministic models, whereas the latter refers
to the part of the system where the flood propagation can be computed with sufficient precision and accuracy by hydrodynamic
models. The applicability of the proposed approach is discussed on the basis of a case study in the Autonomous Province of
Bolzano (Italy). 相似文献
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Pablo Iribarren Anacona Kevin Norton Andrew Mackintosh Fernando Escobar Simon Allen Bruno Mazzorana Marius Schaefer 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):93-112
The rise of total water levels at the coast is caused primarily by three factors that encompass storm surges, tides and wind waves. The accuracy of total water elevation (TWE) forecast depends not only on the cyclonic track and its intensity, but also on the spatial distribution of winds which include its speed and direction. In the present study, the cyclonic winds are validated using buoy winds for the recent cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal since 2010 using Jelesnianski wind scheme. It is found that the cyclonic winds computed from the scheme show an underestimate in the magnitude and also a mismatch in its direction. Hence, the wind scheme is suitably modified based on the buoy observations available at different locations using a power law which reduces the exponential decay of winds by about 30%. Moreover, the cyclonic wind direction is also corrected by suitably modifying its inflow angle. The significance of modified exponential factor and inflow angle in the computation cyclonic winds is highlighted using statistical analysis. A hydrodynamic finite element-based Advanced Circulation 2D depth integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model is used here to compute TWE as a response to combined effect of cyclonic winds and astronomical tides. As contribution of wave setup plays an important role near the coast, a coupled ADCIRC + SWAN is used to perceive the contribution of wind waves on the TWE. The experiments are performed to validate computed surge residuals with available tide gauge data. On comparison of observed surge residuals with the simulations using modified winds from the uncoupled and coupled models, it is found that the simulated surge residuals are better compared, especially with the inclusion of wave effect through the coupled model. 相似文献
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An evidence-based flood hazard analysis in mountain streams requires the identification and the quantitative characterisation of multiple possible processes. These processes result from specific triggering mechanisms on the hillslopes (i.e. landslides, debris flows), in-channel morphodynamic processes associated with sudden bed changes and stochastic processes taking place at critical stream configurations (e.g. occlusion of bridges, failure of levees). From a hazard assessment perspective, such possible processes are related to considerable uncertainties underlying the hydrological cause-effect chains. Overcoming these uncertainties still remains a major challenge in hazard and risk assessment and represents a necessary condition for a reliable spatial representation of process intensities and the associated probabilities. As a result of an accurate analysis of the conceptual flaws present in the procedures currently employed for hazard mapping in South Tyrol (Italy) and Carinthia (Austria), we propose a structured approach as a means to enhance the integration of hillslope, morphodynamic and stochastic processes into conventional flood hazard prediction for mountain basins. To this aim, a functional distinction is introduced between prevailing one-dimensional and two-dimensional process propagation domains, i.e., between confined and semi- to unconfined stream segments. The former domains are mostly responsible for the generation of water, sediment and wood fluxes, and the latter are where flooding of inactive channel areas (i.e. alluvial fans, floodplains) can occur. For the 1D process propagation domain, we discuss how to carry out a process routing along the stream system and how to integrate numerical models output with expert judgement in order to derive consistent event scenarios, thus providing a consistent quantification of the input variables needed for the associated 2D domains. Within these latter domains, two main types of spatial sub-domains can be identified based on the predictability of their dynamics, i.e., stochastic and quasi-deterministic. Advantages and limitations offered by this methodology are finally discussed with respect to hazard and risk assessment in mountain basins. 相似文献
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Lorenzo Picco Cordelia Scalari Andrés Iroumé Bruno Mazzorana Andrea Andreoli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(2):371-384
The importance of monitoring and analysing wood fluxes in mountain environments is widely recognized. However, there is a lack of information related to the long-term fluctuations in wood load and associated to the changes in large wood (LW) characteristics. The main aims of the research were to analyse (i) changes in wood characteristics, (ii) fluctuations in wood load, and (iii) the relationship between wood load and sub-reach settings, proposing an ad hoc roughness index (RI). Repeated field surveys to measure wood load and LW characteristics during a 13-year period were conducted within a 2.2 km-long reach of the Rio Toro (Chile), which flows through the Malleco Forest National Reserve that was affected by wildfires in 2002 and 2015. Two spatial scales (i.e. study reach and sub-reach) were considered. Irrespective of the adopted scale wood load fluctuated considerably, in both number and volume, with significant changes in LW characteristics (i.e. mean diameter and length). Moreover, a clear tendency to the aggregation in wood jams (WJs) was observed within the entire study reach. Based on our results, we conclude that 17 years after the first wildfire wood recruitment has started in the upper parts of the basin. Moreover, Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) analyses were carried out to investigate the relationship between RI and both number and volume of LW. Both models are characterized by high adjusted R2 of 74.9% and 72.8% for volume and number, respectively. This demonstrated that the RI can characterize the reaches in terms of tendency to deposition and trapping of wood. These results are promising, particularly in improving the knowledge related to potential deposition areas that can control wood load fluctuations, also permitting its management to be improved. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva Bruno Mazzorana Ernest Bladé Livia Bürkli Pablo Iribarren-Anacona Luca Mao Futoshi Nakamura Diego Ravazzolo Dieter Rickenmann Marcos Sanz-Ramos Markus Stoffel Ellen Wohl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(9):1694-1709
Inorganic sediment is not the only solid-fraction component of river flows; flows may also carry significant amounts of large organic material (i.e. large wood), but the characteristics of these wood-laden flows (WLFs) are not well understood yet. With the aim to shed light on these relatively unexamined phenomena, we collected home videos showing natural flows with wood as the main solid component. Analyses of these videos as well as the watersheds and streams where the videos were recorded allowed us to define for the first time WLFs, describe the main characteristics of these flows and broaden the definition of wood transport regimes (adding a new regime called here hypercongested wood transport). According to our results, WLFs may occur repeatedly, in a large range of catchment sizes, generally in steep, highly confined single thread channels in mountain areas. WLFs are typically highly unsteady and the log motion is non-uniform, as described for other inorganic sediment-laden flows (e.g. debris flows). The conceptual integration of wood into our understanding of flow phenomena is illustrated by a novel classification defining the transition from clear water to hypercongested, wood and sediment-laden flows, according to the composition of the mixture (sediment, wood, and water). We define the relevant metrics for the quantification and modelling of WLFs, including an exhaustive discussion of different modelling approaches (i.e. Voellmy, Bingham and Manning) and provide a first attempt to simulate WLFs. We draw attention to WLF phenomena to encourage further field, theoretical, and experimental investigations that may contribute to a better understanding of flows in river basins, leading to more accurate predictions, and better hazard mitigation and management strategies. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Recent flood events in Switzerland and Western Austria in 2005 were characterised by an increase in impacts and associated
losses due to the transport of woody material. As a consequence, protection measures and bridges suffered considerable damages.
Furthermore, cross-sectional obstructions due to woody material entrapment caused unexpected flood plain inundations resulting
in severe damage to elements at risk. Until now, the transport of woody material is neither sufficiently taken into account
nor systematically considered, leading to prediction inaccuracies during the procedure of hazard mapping. To close this gap,
we propose a modelling approach that (1) allows the estimation of woody material recruitment from wood-covered banks and flood
plains; (2) allows the evaluation of the disposition for woody material entrainment and transport to selected critical configurations
along the stream and that (3) enables the delineation of hazard process patterns at these critical configurations. Results
from a case study suggest the general applicability of the concept. This contribution to woody material transport analysis
refines flood hazard assessments due to the consideration of woody material transport scenarios. 相似文献
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Andrés Iroumé Manuel Cartagena Luisa Villablanca Daniel Sanhueza Bruno Mazzorana Lorenzo Picco 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):1959-1973
The eco-hydrogeomorphic significance of large wood (LW) and its potential for increasing downstream hazards during extreme floods have been widely recognized. We used LW data collected for a 10-year period from the two low-order streams of Pichún (Pi) and Vuelta de Zorra (VZ) in Southern Chile to (a) determine if the abundance and dimensions of individual LW pieces change with time, (b) quantify wood load fluctuations during the 10-year period, and (c) assess the role of LW recruitment from the riparian forests to explain wood load fluctuations during the study period. Nine years after the first survey, the number of LW pieces in Pi and VZ diminished by 60 and 40%, respectively. Despite the reduction in these numbers, in Pi, the LW dimensions did not change significantly during the study. In VZ, the dimensions exhibited statistically significant differences, despite being within the same class. In both catchments, the LW load fluctuated during a 10-year period, but the drivers of change differed. Although tree toppling was the recruitment mechanism responsible for LW in both stream cases, the high wood load measured in Pi at the beginning of the study suggested massive tree recruitments before the first survey, followed by wood exports which were higher than inputs in the subsequent 10-year period. In VZ, LW load decreased during the first 9 years (mean annual rate of ~9.2 m3 year−1) and then increased by ~12.1 m3 year−1 in year 10. At VZ, the inputs consisted of single trees that were recruited from the riparian area and by upstream flotation, while exports occurred by downstream fluvial transport. Wood inputs and exports occurred asynchronously and led to LW load fluctuations at decadal and annual intervals. Land management and tree species thus exert a major influence on wood inventory and budget in streams. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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