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1.
Jalal Samia Arnaud Temme Arnold K. Bregt Jakob Wallinga John Stuiver Fausto Guzzetti Francesca Ardizzone Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144
Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
2.
Minze Stuiver 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1976,32(2):322-330
14C specific activities in the western Atlantic show aging of about 160 years between 42°N and 30°S for southward-moving North Atlantic Deep Water. Most of the aging occurs in the North Atlantic, with a small increase in14C level for abyssal water near the equator.The northward-flowing Antarctic Bottom Water component ages about 80 years between 50°S and the equator. The rate of Atlantic bottom water formation is estimated at 18 Sverdrups; the rate of flow for northward-moving Antarctic Bottom Water at about 6 Sverdrups. 相似文献
3.
Pieter M Grootes Eric J Steig Minze Stuiver Edwin D Waddington David L Morse Marie-Jose Nadeau 《Quaternary Research》2001,56(3)
The 18O/16O profile of a 554-m long ice core through Taylor Dome, Antarctica, shows the climate variability of the last glacial–interglacial cycle in detail and extends at least another full cycle. Taylor Dome shares the main features of the Vostok record, including the early climatic optimum with later cool phase of the last interglacial period in Antarctica. Taylor Dome δ18O fluctuations are more abrupt and larger than those at Vostok and Byrd Station, although still less pronounced than those of the Greenland GISP2 and GRIP records. The influence of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation on regional ocean heat transport explains the partly “North Atlantic” character of this Antarctic record. Under full glacial climate (marine isotope stage 4, late stage 3, and stage 2), this marine influence diminished and Taylor Dome became more like Vostok. Varying degrees of marine influence produce climate heterogeneity within Antarctica, which may account for conflicting evidence regarding the relative phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate change. 相似文献
4.
Measured 18O/16O ratios from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core extending back to 16,500 cal yr B.P. provide a continuous record of climate change since the last glaciation. High-resolution annual 18O/16O results were obtained for most of the current millennium (A.D. 818-1985) and record the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and a distinct 11-yr 18O/16O cycle. Volcanic aerosols depress central Greenland annual temperature (1.5°C maximally) and annual 18O/16O for about 4 yr after each major eruptive event. On a bidecadal to millennial time scale, the contribution of solar variability to Holocene Greenlandic temperature change is 0.4°C. The role of thermohaline circulation change on climate, problematic during the Holocene, is more distinct for the 16,500-10,000 cal yr B.P. interval. (Analogous to 14C age calibration terminology, we express time in calibrated (cal) yr B.P. (A.D. 1950 = 0 cal yr B.P.)). The Oldest Dryas/Bølling/Older Dryas/Allerød/Younger Dryas sequence appears in great detail. Bidecadal variance in 18O/16O, but not necessarily in temperature, is enhanced during the last phase of lateglacial time and the Younger Dryas interval, suggesting switches of air mass transport between jet stream branches. The branched system is nearly instantaneously replaced at the beginning of the Bølling and Holocene (at 14,670 and 11,650 cal yr B.P., respectively) by an atmospheric circulation system in which 18O/16O and annual accumulation initially track each other closely. Thermodynamic considerations of the accumulation rate-temperature relationship can be used to evaluate the 18 O/16O-temperature relationship. The GISP2 ice-layer-count years of major GISP2 climate transitions also support the use of coral 14C ages for age calibration. 相似文献
5.
Minze Stuiver 《Quaternary Research》1979,11(3):389
6.
Wallace S. Broecker Rik Wanninkhof Guy Mathieu Tsung-Hung Peng Scott Stine Steve Robinson Andy Herczeg Minze Stuiver 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,88(1-2)
Since 1957 the 14C/C ratio of the dissolved inorganic carbon in Mono Lake has risen by about 60‰. The magnitude of this increase is about four times larger than that expected from the invasion of bomb-produced14C from the atmosphere. We have eliminated the following explanations: (1) measurement error, (2) an unusually high physical exchange rate for non-reactive gases, (3) inorganic enhancement of the CO2 exchange rate, and (4) biological enhancement of the CO2 exchange rate. Clandestine disposal of waste radiocarbon remains a dark-horse explanation.In the course of our investigations we have uncovered evidence for at least one episodic input of radiocarbon-free carbon to the lake over the last 1000 years. We speculate that this injection was related to a hydrothermal event resulting from sublacustrine volcanic activity. 相似文献
7.
Radiocarbon-dated marine sediments from five coastal sites along the Strait of Magellan and Beagle Channel in southernmost Chile permit construction of a curve of relative sea-level fluctuations during the Holocene. Morphologic and stratigraphic data point to coastal submergence during the early Holocene as the sea rose to a maximum level at least 3.5 m higher than present about 5000 yr ago. Progressive emergence then followed during the late Holocene. Data from widely separated localities define a smooth curve, the form of which is explainable in terms of isostatic and hydroisostatic deformation of the crust resulting from changing ice and water loads. Apparently anomalous data from one site located more than 100 km behind the outer limit of the last glaciation may reflect isostatic response to deglaciation. The sea-level curve resembles one derived by Clark and Bloom (1979, In “Proceedings of the 1978 International Symposium on Coastal Evolution in the Quaternary, Sao Paulo, Brasil,” pp. 41–60. Sao Paulo) using a spherical Earth model, both in amplitude and in the timing of the maximum submergence. 相似文献
8.
Tree-ring 14C measurements indicate the long-term solar variations, as modulations of the cosmic ray flux, shown in Figure 1.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands. 相似文献
9.
Zhou Weijian Douglas J. Donahue Stephen C. Porter Timothy A. Jull Li Xiaoqiang Minze Stuiver An Zhisheng Eiji Matsumoto Dong Guangrong 《Quaternary Research》1996,46(3):219-229
High-resolution paleomonsoon proxy records from peat and eolian sand–paleosol sequences at the desert–loess transition zone in China denote a rapid oscillation from cold–dry conditions (11,200–10,60014C yr B.P.) to cool–humid conditions (10,600–10,20014C yr B.P.), followed by a return to cold–dry climate (10,200–10,00014C yr B.P.). Variations in precipitation proxies suggest that significant climatic variability occurred in monsoonal eastern Asia during the Younger Dryas interval. Late-glacial climate in the Chinese desert–loess belt that lies downwind from Europe was strongly influenced by cold air from high latitudes and from the North Atlantic via the westerlies. The inferred precipitation variations were likely caused by variations in the strength of the Siberian high, which influenced the pressure gradient between land and ocean and therefore influenced the position of the East Asian monsoon front. 相似文献
10.
Minze Stuiver Stephen W. Robinson H. GöteÖstlund H. Gorman Dorsey 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1974,23(1):65-68
Cross-checks between the Washington and Miami Geosecs radiocarbon laboratories verify that results on identical samples measured at the two laboratories agree with the stated accuracy of each laboratory which is±4‰inΔ14C. 相似文献