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Natural Hazards - On 17 April 2015, the Wujek/?l?sk underground coal mine in Poland was struck by a strong induced tremor of magnitude M4.0. The event was followed by a massive rock burst... 相似文献
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Martin Mozny Mirek Trnka Zdenek Zalud Petr Hlavinka Jiri Nekovar Vera Potop Michal Virag 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):99-111
Since 2000, the network of stations that make up the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has measured the soil moisture content at the 0- to 0.9-m layer using sensors placed within the natural soil profile under closely cropped grass cover. Using information from 8?years of continuous observation at seven stations throughout the Czech Republic, we verified the usefulness of the Soil Moisture Index (SMI). The SMI is a potentially useful index for calculating the water deficit in the Czech Republic and Central Europe. During this period, a statistically significant decrease in moisture content was detected, and negative SMI values predominated. There were frequent occurrences of flash drought, defined as a very rapid decline in soil moisture during a 3-week period. The CHMI can use SMI values below ?3 in the Integrated Warning Service System. The routine calculation of SMI values can alert agricultural producers to the development of flash drought conditions and provide them with information regarding the effectiveness of recent rainfall events. An increase in soil moisture, in contrast, could serve as a warning sign for hydrology because it creates the preconditions for flooding. The complex study of soil humidity regimes is becoming more significant in connection with current global climatic change warnings in hydrological cycles. 相似文献
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Mirek Giersz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,298(4):1239-1248
A revision of Stodoíkiewicz's Monte Carlo code is used to simulate evolution of star clusters. The new method treats each superstar as a single star and follows the evolution and motion of all individual stellar objects. The first calculations for isolated, equal-mass N -body systems with three-body energy generation according to Spitzer's formulae show good agreement with direct N -body calculations for N = 2000, 4096 and 10 000 particles. The density, velocity, mass distributions, energy generation, number of binaries, etc., follow the N -body results. Only the number of escapers is slightly too high compared with N -body results, and there is no level-off anisotropy for advanced post-collapse evolution of Monte Carlo models as is seen in N -body simulations for N ≤ 2000. For simulations with N > 10 000 gravothermal oscillations are clearly visible. The calculations of N 2000, 4096, 10 000, 32 000 and 100 000 models take about 2, 6, 20, 130 and 2500 h, respectively. The Monte Carlo code is at least 105 times faster than the N -body one for N = 32 768 with special-purpose hardware. Thus it becomes possible to run several different models to improve statistical quality of the data and run individual models with N as large as 100 000. The Monte Carlo scheme can be regarded as a method which lies in the middle between direct N -body and Fokker–Planck models and combines most advantages of both methods. 相似文献
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Mirek Giersz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,324(1):218-230
A revision of Stodółkiewicz's Monte Carlo code is used to simulate evolution of large star clusters. The new method treats each superstar as a single star and follows the evolution and motion of all individual stellar objects. A survey of the evolution of N -body systems influenced by the tidal field of a parent galaxy and by stellar evolution is presented. The process of energy generation is realized by means of appropriately modified versions of Spitzer's and Mikkola's formulae for the interaction cross-section between binaries and field stars and binaries themselves. The results presented are in good agreement with theoretical expectations and the results of other methods (Fokker–Planck, Monte Carlo and N -body). The initial rapid mass loss, resulting from stellar evolution of the most massive stars, causes expansion of the whole cluster and eventually leads to the disruption of less bound systems ( W 0 =3). Models with larger W 0 survive this phase of evolution and then undergo core collapse and subsequent post-collapse expansion, like isolated models. The expansion phase is eventually reversed when tidal limitation becomes important. The results presented are the first major step in the direction of simulating evolution of real globular clusters by means of the Monte Carlo method. 相似文献
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Mirek Giersz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,371(1):484-494
A revision of Stodółkiewicz's Monte Carlo code is used to simulate the evolution of million-body star clusters. The new method treats each superstar as a single star and follows the evolution and motion of all individual stellar objects. The evolution of N -body systems influenced by the tidal field of a parent galaxy and by stellar evolution is presented. All models consist of 1 000 000 stars. The process of energy generation is realized by means of appropriately modified versions of Spitzer's and Mikkola's formulae for the interaction cross-section between binaries and field stars and binaries themselves. The results presented are in good agreement with theoretical expectations and the results of other methods. During the evolution, the initial mass function (IMF) changes significantly. The local mass function around the half-mass radius closely resembles the actual global mass function. At the late stages of evolution, the mass of the evolved stars inside the core can be as high as 97 per cent of the total mass in this region. For the whole system, the evolved stars can compose up to 75 per cent of the total mass. The evolution of cluster anisotropy strongly depends on initial cluster concentration, IMF and the strength of the tidal field. The results presented are the first step in the direction of simulating the evolution of real globular clusters by means of the Monte Carlo method. 相似文献
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Ulf B��ntgen Rudolf Br��zdil Petr Dobrovolny Mirek Trnka Tom��? Kyncl 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(1-2):167-180
Past, present, and projected fluctuations of the hydrological cycle, associated to anthropogenic climate change, describe a pending challenge for natural ecosystems and human civilizations. Here, we compile and analyze long meteorological records from Brno, Czech Republic and nearby tree-ring measurements of living and historic firs from Southern Moravia. This unique paleoclimatic compilation together with innovative reconstruction methods and error estimates allows regional-scale May?CJune drought variability to be estimated back to ad 1500. Driest and wettest conditions occurred in 1653 and 1713, respectively. The ten wettest decades are evenly distributed throughout time, whereas the driest episodes occurred in the seventeenth century and from the 1840s onward. Discussion emphasizes agreement between the new reconstruction and documentary evidence, and stresses possible sources of reconstruction uncertainty including station inhomogeneity, limited frequency preservation, reduced climate sensitivity, and large-scale constraints. 相似文献
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Mirek Giersz Douglas C. Heggie † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(2):1173-1183
We describe Monte Carlo models for the dynamical evolution of the nearby globular cluster NGC 6397. The code includes treatments of two-body relaxation, most kinds of three- and four-body interactions involving primordial binaries and those formed dynamically, the Galactic tide and the internal evolution of both single and binary stars. We arrive at a set of initial parameters for the cluster which, after 12 Gyr of evolution, gives a model with a fairly satisfactory match to the surface brightness profile, the velocity dispersion profile and the luminosity function in two fields. We describe in particular those aspects of the evolution which distinguish this cluster from M4, which has a roughly similar mass and Galactocentric distance, but a qualitatively different surface brightness profile. Within the limitations of our modelling, we conclude that the most plausible explanation for the difference is fluctuations: both clusters are post-collapse objects, but sometimes have resolvable cores and sometimes not. 相似文献
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Cereal crop harvests reflect the weather patterns of the period immediately preceding them, and thus the dates at which they begin may be used as a source of proxy data on regional climate. Using systematic phenological observations in the Czech Lands (now known as the Czech Republic) after 1845, together with exploration of further surviving documentary evidence (chronicles, diaries, financial accounts etc.), it has proved possible to create series of winter wheat harvest dates for the period 1501–2008. Employing linear regression, the harvesting dates of the main cereal species (wheat, rye, barley, oats) were first converted to winter wheat harvest days and then normalised to the same altitude above sea level. The next step consisted of using series of winter wheat harvest dates to reconstruct mean March–June temperatures in the Czech Republic, applying standard palaeoclimatological methods. Series reconstructed by linear regression explain 70% of temperature variability. A profound cold period corresponding with late winter wheat harvests was noted between 1659 and 1705. In contrast, warm periods (i.e. early winter wheat harvests) were found for the periods of 1517–1542, 1788–1834 and 1946–2008. The period after 1951 is the warmest of all throughout the entire 1501–2008 period. Comparisons with other European temperature reconstructions derived from documentary sources (including grape harvest dates), tree-rings and instrumental data reveal generally close agreement, with significant correlations. Lower correlations around A.D. 1650 and 1750 may be partly related to deterioration of socio-economic conditions in the Czech Lands resulting from prolonged wars. The results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to use widely-available cereal harvest data for climate analysis and also that such data constitute an independent proxy data series for the region of Central Europe crucial to further studies of the potential impact of climatic variability and climate change on agriculture. 相似文献
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Paul Eccleston Bruce Swinyard Marcel Tessenyi Giovanna Tinetti Ingo Waldmann Marc Ferlet Ranah Irshad Tanya Lim Kevin Middleton Tom Bradshaw Martin Crook Tom Hunt Berend Winter Ian Bryson Naidu Bezawada William Taylor Neil Bowles Enzo Pascale Gianluca Morgante Emanuele Pace Alberto Adriani Jean-Michel Reess Marc Ollivier Roland Ottensamer Mirek Rataj Gonzalo Ramos Zapata Jan-Rutger Schrader Avri Selig Kate Isaak Martin Linder Ludovic Puig 《Experimental Astronomy》2015,40(2-3):427-447