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Ullah Farman Saqib Shahab E. Ahmad Mokbul Morshed Fadlallah Mahmoud Ali 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):225-247
Natural Hazards - Risk perception plays a vital part in flood risk management and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims at first to measure the risk perception of the vulnerable... 相似文献
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Mokbul Morshed Ahmad 《The Geographical journal》2003,169(1):65-74
Recently, microcredit has become a fashionable cure-all for most non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Bangladesh. The provision of services to the poor is by definition always difficult, and even NGOs have problems. NGOs in Bangladesh define the poor in different ways when creating their target groups. The policies of nearly all NGOs in Bangladesh are formulated by their senior managers, and field workers are rarely consulted. This paper will explore the opinions on microcredit of selected field workers of four types of NGOs in Bangladesh – on how the problem of microcredit might be solved. Problems of microcredit programmes, they say, include non-accessibility to the poorest, low return, misuse and overemphasis on repayment. Field workers discuss what level of importance should be given to microcredit as against services like education, health or awareness creation. Most conclude that NGOs are overemphasizing microcredit, which leaves little time and few resources for other problems of the poor, so bringing the whole 'development' effort of the NGOs into question. Most field workers think that many microenterprises are not sustainable and that in many cases clients will remain dependent on the NGOs for credit. 相似文献
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A tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation prediction scheme has been developed based on the physical quantities of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as potential predictors and using fuzzy neural network (FNN) model. TC precipitation samples from 172 tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Guangxi, China, spanning 1980–2015 are used for model development. The FNN model input is constructed from potential predictors by employing both a stepwise regression method (SRM) and a locally linear embedding (LLE) algorithm. The LLE algorithm is capable of finding meaningful low-dimensional architectures hidden in their nonlinear high-dimensional data space and separating the underlying factors. In this scheme, the newly developed model, which is termed the FNN–LLE model, is used for daily TC precipitation prediction from 20:00 (Beijing Time, or BT) of the previous day to 20:00 BT of the current day at 89 stations covering Guangxi, China. Using identical modeling samples and independent samples, predictions of the FNN–LLE model are compared with the widely used SRM and interpolation method using the fine-mesh data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in terms of the performance of TC rainfall prediction at 89 stations in Guangxi. The root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias, and equitable threat score (ETS) results were employed to assess the predicted outcomes. Results show that the FNN–LLE model is superior to the interpolation method by ECMWF and SRM for TC precipitation prediction with RMSE values of 21.94, 24.07, and 25.22 in FNN–LLE model, interpolation method by ECMWF and SRM, respectively. Moreover, FNN–LLE model having average bias and ETS values close to 1.0 gave better predictions than did the interpolation method by ECMWF and SRM. 相似文献
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Chakraborty Tanmoy Sarkar Showmitra Kumar Morshed Md. Manjur 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1587-1602
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Intense droughts in recent years are a global concern. The duration and timing of drought for forests have not been researched as much as crops. This study... 相似文献
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Rapid change in land use and land cover (LULC) and unplanned urban expansion in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, receives continuous attention from local policymakers and the international community. This study employed a supervised classification procedure and postclassification change detection technique to estimate major changes between different LULC classes. The study revealed that built-up area increased significantly from 1989 to 2014. The total urban growth of 81.54 percent resulted in a substantial decrease in natural vegetation cover and agricultural land. In addition, water bodies have declined consistently over the last twenty-five years. The overall accuracy of LULC change maps produced from Landsat data ranged from 89.72 percent to 92.97 percent. The results should contribute to ongoing LULC information updates while forecasting possible future LULC change and sustainable development under greater population density. 相似文献
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