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Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A.?RinkeEmail author K.?Dethloff J.?J.?Cassano J.?H.?Christensen J.?A.?Curry P.?Du E.?Girard J.-E.?Haugen D.?Jacob C.?G.?Jones M.?K?ltzow R.?Laprise A.H.?Lynch S.?Pfeifer M.?C.?Serreze M.?J.?Shaw M.?Tjernstr?m K.?Wyser M.??agar 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(5):459-472
Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997–September
1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed
approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary
forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations.
Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover,
and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify
the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations.
Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found
the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover
which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
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Ivica Vilibić Hrvoje Kalinić Hrvoje Mihanović Simone Cosoli Martina Tudor Nedjeljka žagar Blaž Jesenko 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(1):115-131
We performed a number of sensitivity experiments by applying a mapping technique, self-organizing maps (SOM) method, to the surface current data measured by high-frequency (HF) radars in the northern Adriatic and surface winds modelled by two state-of-the-art mesoscale meteorological models, the Aladin (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational) and the Weather and Research Forecasting models. Surface current data used for the SOM training were collected during a period in which radar coverage was the highest: between February and November 2008. Different pre-processing techniques, such as removal of tides and low-pass filtering, were applied to the data in order to test the sensitivity of characteristic patterns and the connectivity between different SOM solutions. Topographic error did not exceed 15 %, indicating the applicability of the SOM method to the data. The largest difference has been obtained when comparing SOM patterns originating from unprocessed and low-pass filtered data. Introduction of modelled winds in joint SOM analyses stabilized the solutions, while sensitivity to wind forcing coming from the two different meteorological models was found to be small. Such a low sensitivity is considered to be favourable for creation of an operational ocean forecasting system based on neural networks, HF radar measurements and numerical weather prediction mesoscale models. 相似文献
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Nedjeljka ?agar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(3):367-379
This paper reports recent advances in understanding of dynamical aspects of the tropical data assimilation. In contrast with
the mid-latitudes, there is no a well-defined approach for the tropical data assimilation in numerical weather prediction
(NWP) community which has traditionally been concentrated on the mid-latitude analysis problem. In particular, the impact
of the equatorial Rossby, inertio-gravity, and mixed Rossby-gravity waves on the tropical forecast-error covariances is difficult
to quantify. Various tropical waves are characterized by different couplings between the mass field and the wind field. The
average mixture of these waves, built into the background-error covariance matrix for data assimilation provides analysis
increments which appear nearly univariate even though they result from the advanced multivariate assimilation methodology.
This applies to both dry and moist idealized tropical systems as well as to a 4D-Var NWP assimilation system. 相似文献
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The Mediterranean Basin is rich in mercury from natural and anthropogenic sources. During an extensive research from 2002–2005, measurements of different mercury forms were carried out in the Mediterranean Sea by the Italian research vessel Urania as a part of the Med Oceanor and MERCYMS projects funded by the EU Framework programme. Further on, transport and fate of mercury forms was simulated in water and air compartments by two different models, and an approximate coupling of both models was performed. The new 3-dimensional model PCFLOW3D was completed with the first version of a biogeochemical module which deals with various mercury species in dissolved and particulate forms. Exchange with the bottom and the atmosphere, methylation, demethylation, reduction and oxidation were taken into account. Based on the integrated hydrodynamic-atmospheric model and results of field measurements the mass balance of total mercury in the Mediterranean Sea was determined in order to estimate main sources and sinks and simulate future trends of mercury contamination in the Mediterranean. The following terms were taken into account: sources of mercury from major rivers and from point sources, exchange with the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea, estimated natural sources from geotectonic active areas in the sea, exchange with bottom sediments, and evasion to and deposition from the atmosphere. 相似文献
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‘Modelling the Arctic Boundary Layer: An Evaluation of Six Arcmip Regional-Scale Models using Data from the Sheba Project’ 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Michael Tjernström Mark Žagar Gunilla Svensson John J. Cassano Susanne Pfeifer Annette Rinke Klaus Wyser Klaus Dethloff Colin Jones Tido Semmler Michael Shaw 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,117(2):337-381
A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between
the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface.
In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled
in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common
domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables,
surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All
the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures.
Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling
degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second.
The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux
is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation
with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger
than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat
flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere–ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate
change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution. 相似文献
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