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Natural Hazards - We perform numerical simulations to assess how coastal tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMFs) is affected by slide kinematics and rheology. Two types of two-layer SMF...  相似文献   
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We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m3 (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.  相似文献   
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Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data-sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one-dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13-year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five-year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm3/cm3. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight-year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non-stationary climates.  相似文献   
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A robust numerical model to simulate propagation and runup of tsunami waves in the framework of non-linear shallow water theory is developed. The numerical code adopts a staggered leapfrog finite-difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes in spherical coordinates. A temporal position of the shoreline is calculated using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. For large scale problems, the developed algorithm is efficiently parallelized employing a domain decomposition technique. The developed numerical model is benchmarked in an exhaustive series of tests suggested by NOAA. We conducted analytical and laboratory benchmarking for the cases of solitary wave runup on simple beaches, runup of a solitary wave on a conically-shaped island, and the runup in the Monai Valley, Okushiri Island, Japan, during the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami. In all conducted tests the calculated numerical solution is within an accuracy recommended by NOAA standards. We summarize results of numerical benchmarking of the model, its strengths and limits with regards to reproduction of fundamental features of coastal inundation, and also illustrate some possible improvements.  相似文献   
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A numerical model of the wave dynamics in Chenega Cove, Alaska during the historic M w 9.2 megathrust earthquake is presented. During the earthquake, locally generated waves of unknown origin were identified at the village of Chenega, located in the western part of Prince William Sound. The waves appeared shortly after the shaking began and swept away most of the buildings while the shaking continued. We model the tectonic tsunami in Chenega Cove assuming different tsunami generation processes. Modeled results are compared with eyewitness reports and an observed runup. Results of the numerical experiments let us claim the importance of including both vertical and horizontal displacement into the 1964 tsunami generation process. We also present an explanation for the fact that arrivals of later waves in Chenega were unnoticed.  相似文献   
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We present numerical simulations of the April 27, 1975, landslide event in the northern extreme of Kitimat Arm, British Columbia. The event caused a tsunami with an estimated wave height of 8.2 m at Kitimat First Nations Settlement and 6.1 m at Clio Bay, at the northern and southern ends of Kitimat Arm, respectively. We use the nonhydrostatic model NHWAVE to perform a series of numerical experiments with different slide configurations and with two approaches to modeling the slide motion: a solid slide with motion controlled by a basal Coulomb friction and a depth-integrated numerical slide based on Newtonian viscous flow. Numerical tests show that both models are capable of reproducing observations of the event if an adequate representation of slide geometry is used. We further show that comparable results are obtained using estimates of either Coulomb friction angle or slide viscosity that are within reasonable ranges of values found in previous literature.  相似文献   
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