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Hideo Aochi Marc Cushing Oona Scotti Catherine Berge-Thierry 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,165(2):436-446
The Middle Durance fault system, southeastern France, is a slow active fault that produced moderate-size historical seismic events and shows evidence of at least one M w ≳ 6.5 event in the last 29 000 yr. Based on dynamic rupture simulation, we propose earthquake scenarios that are constrained by knowledge of both the tectonic stress field and of the 3-D geometry of the Durance fault system. We simulate dynamic rupture interaction among several fault segmentations of different strikes, dips and rakes, using a 3-D boundary integral equation method. 50 combinations of reasonable stress field orientations, stress field amplitudes and hypocentre locations are tested. The probability of different rupture evolutions is then computed. Each segment ruptures mainly as a single event (44 per cent of the 50 simulations test in this paper). However, the probability that an event triggers simultaneously along three segments is high (26 per cent), leading to a potential rupture length of 45 km. Finally, 2 per cent of the simulations occur along four adjacent segments, producing the greatest total rupture length of 55 km. The simulation results show that the southernmost segment is most easily ruptured (40 per cent), because of its favourable orientation with respect to the tectonic stress and of its favourable location for interaction with the other segments. South-bound unilateral propagation is slightly preferable (41 per cent), compared to north-bound unilateral and bilateral propagation modes. Although, these rupture scenarios cannot be directly translated into probabilities of occurrence, they do provide a better insight as to which rupture scenarios are more likely, an important element to better estimate near-field strong ground motion and seismic hazard. 相似文献
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Mansour Ioualalen Christophe Larroque Oona Scotti Camille Daubord 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1423-1443
The Ligurian coast, located at the French–Italian border, is densely populated as well as a touristic area. It is also a location where earthquakes and underwater landslides are recurrent. The nature of the local tsunamigenesis is therefore a legitimate question, because no tsunami warning system can resolve tsunami arrival times of a few minutes, which is the case for the area. As far as the seismicity of the area is concerned, the frequent recurrent earthquakes are generally of moderate magnitude: most of them are lower than M w 5. However, the relatively large M w 6.9 earthquake (Larroque et al., in Geophys J Int, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) that occurred on the February 23, 1887, offshore of Imperia (Italian Riviera) is quite emblematic. This unusual event for the region merits a complete study: the quantification of its rupture mechanism is essential (1) to understand the regional active deformation, but also (2) to evaluate its tsunamigenesis potential by deriving relevant rupture scenarios obtained from our knowledge of the event; for that purpose the event is extensively described here. The first point has been the subject of quite a few studies based on the seismotectonics of the area. The last documented approach has been completed by Larroque et al. (Geophys J Int, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) who proposed a rupture scenario involving a reverse faulting along a north dipping fault and favoring a M w 6.9 magnitude. In the present paper (1) we study the accuracy of their solutions in relation to the computational grid spacing and the dispersive/nondispersive parameterization, (2) based on an uncertainty on the recorded wave amplitude of the Genoa tide gauge they used, we propose a M w 6.7 earthquake magnitude solution for the event (the kinematics is unchanged), co-existing with the M w 6.9, (3) we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact of the 1887 event, and (4) we test a range of possible ruptures that local faults may undergo in order to propose a synoptic mapping of the tsunami threat in the area. The spatial distribution of the maximum wave height (MWH) is provided with a tentative identification of the processes that are responsible for it. This latter issue is imperative in order to make our mapping as generic as possible in the framework of our deterministic approach (based on realistic scenarios and not on ensemble statistics). The predictions suggest that the wave impact is mostly local, considering the relatively moderate size of the rupture planes. Although the present-day seismicity in this region is moderate, stronger earthquakes (M > 6.5) have occurred in the past. The studied scenarios show that for such events specific localities along the French–Italian Riviera may experience very significant MWH related to the shallow focal depth tested for such scenarios. We may reasonably conclude that the tsunami threat is relatively significant and uniform at the Italian side of the Riviera (from Ventimiglia to Imperia), while it is more localized (sporadic) at the French side from Antibes to Menton with, however, higher local level of inundation, e.g., Nice city center. 相似文献
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Volcanic ash can disperse thousands of kilometres from the source volcano and provide valuable chronostratigraphic markers for palaeoclimate studies. We present new cryptotephra findings of historical and modern Icelandic eruptions in annually laminated lacustrine sediment records from several sites within a 570 km SW–NE transect across northern Poland. Sediments from the two lakes Wąsoskie and Szurpiły contain glass shards originating from the Plinian Askja ad 1875 eruption and showing bimodal, rhyolitic and dacitic affinities. A further cryptotephra finding in Lake Lubińskie suggests a potential origin from the Hekla ad 1845 eruption. These new findings extend the tephra dispersal map towards the south-east and provide valuable isochrons for the synchronisation of palaeoclimate proxy data at the termination of the Little Ice Age in central eastern Europe. Very low glass concentrations of modern cryptotephra in Lake Wąsoskie were potentially correlated with the Eyjafjallajökull ad 2010 eruption. Further findings in the uppermost sediments of lakes Szurpiły and Żabińskie in north-eastern Poland tentatively suggest other sources from either the Hekla and/or Kamchatkan volcanoes. 相似文献
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Philippe Volant Agnès Levret David Carbon Oona Scotti Didier Combescure Thierry Verdel Anne Piant Philippe Laurent 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(1):53-77
This paper presents a synthesis of a multidisciplinary study carried out along the Nîmes Roman aqueduct, located in the southeast part of France. The study was motivated by archaeologists attempting to explain the partial destructions of only one aerial bridge of the aqueduct (Pont de la Lône). Given its close proximity to the Nîmes seismically active fault, a possible seismic origin for the destructions was invoked. Seismologists and structural engineers thus carried out a variety of field and numerical investigations to test the seismic hypothesis. Supporting field evidence was found first along the aerial bridge section of the aqueduct: broken stalactites, arch warping, cracks and destruction of the bridge just above a breast wall shortly after its construction. Secondly, the underground part of the canal was analysed: irregularity in the thickness of calcite deposits of the canal walls, presence of numerous cracks, horizontal shift of the otherwise linear structure of the canal and presence of calcite twins in the deposits, found only where the canal crosses the Nîmes fault system. Numerical modelling and experimental results show that (1) only the Pont de la Lône would have suffered serious damage under seismic solicitation (assuming an M6 earthquake at 10 km distance). The second aerial bridge, the three levels arches Pont du Gard, an historical monument still standing today, would have suffered less damage, due to its very different fundamental frequency of around 0.4 Hz, far from the amplified seismic near-field spectrum; (2) the numerical models also show that a fall of the canal wall would require a higher magnitude event (M > 6); (3) the presence of calcite twinning requires a differential static stress of 4 MPa or greater, which can only be achieved very close to the fault rupture of a M > 6 earthquake; (4) finally, local surface rupturing of such a fault would also corroborate the hypothesis that the observed offset of the canal may be partly seismically induced. Although other possible origins for each individual evidence may not be excluded, the observed spatiotemporal concentration of architectural/geological anomalies together with the numerical results allow us to support a possible co-seismic origin for these disorders, indirectly attesting to the potential seismic activity (M > 6) of the nearby Nîmes fault. Furthermore, following the conclusions of archaeological studies, the disorders occurred between 250 and 350 year AD, thus providing timing for this possible seismic event, an essential parameter in seismic hazard analysis. These results validate the archaeo-seismological approach as a tool that may help improve the knowledge of major infrequent earthquakes in areas of moderate seismic activity. 相似文献
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Cryptotephras in the Lateglacial ICDP Dead Sea sediment record and their implications for chronology
Ina Neugebauer Daniela Müller Markus J. Schwab Simon Blockley Christine S. Lane Sabine Wulf Oona Appelt Achim Brauer 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2021,50(3):844-861
Due to a lack of visible tephras in the Dead Sea record, this unique palaeoenvironmental archive is largely unconnected to the well-established Mediterranean tephrostratigraphy. Here we present first results of the ongoing search for cryptotephras in the International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) sediment core from the deep Dead Sea basin. This study focusses on the Lateglacial (~15–11.4 cal. ka BP), when Lake Lisan – the precursor of the Dead Sea – shrank from its glacial highstand to the Holocene low levels. We developed a glass shard separation protocol and counting procedure that is adapted to the extreme salinity and sediment recycling of the Dead Sea. Cryptotephra is abundant in the Dead Sea record (up to ~100 shards cm-3), but often glasses are physically and/or chemically altered. Six glass samples from five tephra horizons reveal a heterogeneous geochemical composition, with mainly rhyolitic and some trachytic glasses potentially sourced from Italian, Aegean and Anatolian volcanoes. Most shards likely originate from the eastern Anatolian volcanic province and can be correlated using major element analyses with tephra deposits from swarm eruptions of the Süphan Volcano ~13 ka BP and with ashes from Nemrut Volcano, presumably the Lake Van V-16 volcanic layer at ~13.8 ka BP. In addition to glasses that match the TM-10-1 from Lago Grande di Monticchio (15 820±790 cal. a BP) tentatively correlated with the St. Angelo Tuff of Ischia, we further identified a cryptotephra with glass analyses which are chemically identical with those of the PhT1 tephra in the Philippon peat record (13.9–10.5 ka BP), and also a compositional match for the glass analyses of the Santorini Cape Riva Tephra (Y-2 marine tephra, 22 024±642 cal. a BP). These first results demonstrate the great potential of cryptotephrochronology in the Dead Sea record for improving its chronology and connecting the Levantine region to the Mediterranean tephra framework. 相似文献
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The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation: comparison of a zoning and a smoothing approach 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Seismic hazard estimations are compared using two approaches based on two different seismicity models: one which models earthquake recurrence by applying the truncated Gutenberg-Richter law and a second one which smoothes the epicentre location of past events according to the fractal distribution of earthquakes in space ( Woo 1996 ). The first method requires the definition of homogeneous source zones and the determination of maximum possible magnitudes whereas the second method requires the definition of a smoothing function. Our results show that the two approaches lead to similar hazard estimates in low seismicity regions. In regions of increased seismic activity, on the other hand, the smoothing approach yields systematically lower estimates than the zoning method. This epicentre-smoothing approach can thus be considered as a lower bound estimator for seismic hazard and can help in decision making in moderate seismicity regions where source zone definition and estimation of maximum possible magnitudes can lead to a wide variety of estimates due to lack of knowledge. The two approaches lead, however, to very different earthquake scenarios. Disaggregation studies at a representative number of sites show that if the distributions of contributions according to source–site distance are comparable between the two approaches, the distributions of contributions according to magnitude differ, reflecting the very different seismicity models used. The epicentre-smoothing method leads to scenarios with predominantly intermediate magnitudes events (5 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) while the zoning method leads to scenarios with magnitudes that increase with the return period from the minimum to the maximum magnitudes considered. These trends demonstrate that the seismicity model used plays a fundamental role in the determination of the controlling scenarios and ways to discriminate between the most appropriate models remains an important issue. 相似文献
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Chloé Lesueur Michel Cara Oona Scotti Antoine Schlupp Christophe Sira 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):313-333
Comparison between accelerometric and macroseismic observations is made for three M w?=?4.5 earthquakes, which occurred in north-eastern France and south-western Germany in 2003 and 2004. Scalar and spectral instrumental parameters are processed from the accelerometric data recorded by nine accelerometric stations located between 29 and 180 km from the epicentres. Macroseismic data are based on French Internet reports. In addition to the single questionnaire intensity, analysis of the internal correlation between the encoded answers highlights four predominant fields of questions bearing different physical meanings: (1) “vibratory motions of small objects”, (2) “displacement and fall of objects”, (3) “acoustic noise” and (4) “personal feelings”. Best correlations between macroseismic and instrumental observations are obtained when the macroseismic parameters are averaged over 10-km-radius circles around each station. Macroseismic intensities predicted by published peak ground velocity (PGV)–intensity relationships agree with our observed intensities, contrary to those based on peak ground acceleration (PGA). Correlation between the macroseismic and instrumental data for intensities between II and V (EMS-98) is better for PGV than for PGA. Correlation with the response spectra exhibits clear frequency dependence for all macroseismic parameters. Horizontal and vertical components are significantly correlated with the macroseismic parameters between 1 and 10 Hz, a range corresponding to both natural frequencies of most buildings and high energy content in the seismic ground motion. Between 10 and 25 Hz, a clear lack of correlation between macroseismic and instrumental observations exists. It could be due to a combination of the decrease in the energy signal above 10 Hz, a high level of anthropogenic noise and an increase in variability in soil conditions. Above 25 Hz, the correlation coefficients between the acceleration response spectra and the macroseismic parameters are close to the PGA correlation level. 相似文献
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