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Two diagnostic models, reproducing circulation generated in a marginal sea by variable density, have been developed. The models’ domain is a 2D transverse section for which analytical solutions have been obtained. They describe the winter situation in the northern Adriatic, with a strong vertical mixing present and the density maximum dominating the centre of the basin. Both models employ Boussinesq-type parametrisation of friction and linear slip at the bottom. The first model allows for frictional departure from hydrostatic equilibrium and includes vertical friction only. The second one is hydrostatic but allows for lateral friction as well. The results obtained by the two models are similar and to some extent dependent on the vertical and bottom friction. They reproduce several well known characteristics of the Adriatic circulation (cyclonic surface flow, downwelling in the central and larger part of the basin compensated by upwelling in the coastal zone) but also predict some phenomena that are still not well understood. A conspicuous feature of the model results are coastal jets, which were observed in the Adriatic on several occasions. The present models show that the distance of jets from the coasts depends on lateral friction: it is found to vary from 1 up to 10 km on the Italian side and between 2 and 15 km on the Croatian side. Both models reproduce the west–east asymmetry, with the wider current on the east side of the basin. The asymmetry is a subject on which conflicting empirical results exist in the Adriatic. In the two models cyclonic flow occupies the whole water column, which disagrees with some recent theoretical findings of the near-bottom anticyclonic flow and thus leaves the issue open. 相似文献
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The purpose of this article is to study the three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) generalized exponential (GE) distribution and examine its suitability in probabilistic earthquake recurrence modeling. The GE distribution shares many physical properties of the gamma and Weibull distributions. This distribution, unlike the exponential distribution, overcomes the burden of memoryless property. For shape parameter β> 1, the GE distribution offers increasing hazard function, which is in accordance with the elastic rebound theory of earthquake generation. In the present study, we consider a real, complete, and homogeneous earthquake catalog of 20 events with magnitude above 7.0 (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) from northeast India and its adjacent regions (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) to analyze earthquake inter-occurrence time from the GE distribution. We apply the modified maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate model parameters. We then perform a number of goodness-of-fit tests to evaluate the suitability of the GE model to other competitive models, such as the gamma and Weibull models. It is observed that for the present data set, the GE distribution has a better and more economical representation than the gamma and Weibull distributions. Finally, a few conditional probability curves (hazard curves) are presented to demonstrate the significance of the GE distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. 相似文献
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Tsunami activity in the Adriatic Sea from the sixteenth century until the present has been analysed with the ultimate goal
to improve the European tsunami catalogue and provide data for a new geo-database of tsunami events in the European-Mediterranean
region. The study encompasses twenty-seven events, nine on the western and eighteen on the eastern coast of the Adriatic,
with special attention being devoted to contemporary sources and to local journals and newspapers. For all the analysed events,
the path of information from coeval sources, through the nineteenth century and up to modern tsunami catalogues, has been
constructed. Tsunamis on the western coast have already been studied, but to obtain a coherent picture of tsunamigenic activity
in the Adriatic Sea, they have been included in this work. Furthermore, the study was extended to see whether they had propagated
to the opposite coast. Most of the events on the eastern coast have now been systematically analysed for the first time. The
search of bibliographical sources revealed three new reports on tsunamis on the eastern coast that had not been previously
recorded in international publications. The study established that, out of the eighteen eastern Adriatic events, twelve can
be considered false, while six were true tsunamis. In the last 600 years, fifteen true tsunami events occurred in the Adriatic.
One was very strong, six were strong or rather strong, and eight were light tsunamis. As a final result of this analysis,
carried out according to standardised criteria, fifteen Adriatic tsunami events will be inserted in the TRANSFER (Tsunami
Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region) database for the European-Mediterranean region. 相似文献
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Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Croatia 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Systematic statistical analysis of dry day sequences, which are defined according to 0.1, 1, 5 and 10 mm of precipitation-per-day thresholds, is performed on seasonal and yearly basis. The data analysed come from 25 Croatian meteorological stations and cover the period 1961–2000. Climatological features of the mean and maximum dry spell durations, as well as the frequency of long dry spells (>20 days) are discussed. The results affirm the three main climatological regions in Croatia, with the highlands exhibiting shorter dry spells than the mainland, and the coastal region exhibiting longer dry spells. The prevailing positive trend of both mean and maximal durations is detected during winter and spring seasons, while negative trend dominate in autumn for all thresholds. Positive field significant trends of mean dry spell duration with 5 and 10 mm thresholds are found during spring and the same is valid for annual maximum dry spell duration with a 10 mm threshold. It is found that the Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average (DARMA(1,1)) model can be used to estimate the probabilities of dry spells in Croatia that are up to 20–30 days long. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - An automatic, transparent, and regular way to investigate and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in a large, unstructured, and high-dimensional data set is highly desirable in... 相似文献
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