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This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km2 located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase. 相似文献
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An application of genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in hydrology is proposed, showing how these two techniques can work together to solve the problem of modelling the effect of rain on the runoff flow in a typical urban basin. The ability of GP to include the physical basis of a problem and even to analyse the results is discussed, and a case study is included as an example. We propose a solution to this problem by using an ANN for the prediction of the daily flow due to human activity of the citizens and the use of GP for the prediction of the flow rate resulting from the rain. Finally, it is shown that the methodology can be used to solve similar problems by combining both techniques. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Enrique Peña González Joaquín Suárez López Jordi Delgado Martín Alfredo Jácome Burgos Jerónimo Puertas Agudo 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(6):823-834
The cutting operations of dimension stone at quarries produce a large amount of fines that, in turn, cause a negative environmental impact over local surface waters. This article presents a detailed analysis of the mobilized contamination associated with runoff waters in a large granite quarry (～200 ha) which is located in Porriño (Galicia, NW Spain), the most important production centre of dimension stone in Spain. There, an intensive monitoring survey was developed in order to characterize the hydrology of the system as well as the release and transport of pollutants. This was accomplished by means of different control sections for the flow and by the collection of 52 random water samples. Automatic samplers were also used to collect 192 water samples associated with runoff generated by significant rain events. For each of the samples collected, a wide battery of analytic determinations was performed, including solid loads, turbidity, organic pollution, nutrient and selected metals. Upon careful examination it has been possible to obtain different parameters related to the contamination control, like the “event mean concentration” (EMC), maximum concentrations and specific sediment loads. Moreover, a comprehensive statistical study including parameter correlation and cumulative probability analyses helped to understand the pollutant mobilization behaviour within the quarry system. It can be concluded that mobilized contamination shows the anomalous presence of some metals, whose concentrations are in excess when compared to the natural rock. This excess metal amount must be attributed to an anthropogenic source associated to mining and cutting operations. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - This study presents MERLIN, an innovative flood hazard forecasting system for predicting discharges and water levels at flood prone areas of coastal catchments. Discharge... 相似文献
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