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1.
A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Carlo Meletti Fabrizio Galadini Gianluca Valensise Massimiliano Stucchi Roberto Basili Salvatore Barba Gianfranco Vannucci Enzo Boschi 《Tectonophysics》2008,450(1-4):85-108
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
2.
Data recorded by the Italian Telemetered Seismic Network (ITSN) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) have been widely used in recent years to image slab structures and to find evidence for active processes along the Italian Peninsula. However, the use of seismic data for geostructural purposes may be affected by the well-known trade-off between earthquake location and seismic-velocity parameters. Furthermore, the confidence ellipse predicted by standard procedures may be inadequate for the representation of the probable error of a computed localization. This paper evaluates the probable errors on the hypocentre determinations of the seismic events recorded by the ITSN, using a Monte Carlo method.
We compute synthetic arrival times using a 1-D velocity model appropriate as an average for the Italian area. The hypocentres used are all those recorded by the ITSN during the period January 1992 to March 1994 (1972 events). Station locations are those of the current ITSN configuration. The synthetic arrival times are perturbed with a Gaussian distribution of errors and input to ING's standard hypocentral location procedure, but using crustal velocities differing by 10 per cent from those used to generate them. Each simulation is repeated at least 30 times. Average absolute shifts of hypocentres are assessed in grid cells of linear dimension 33 km covering the whole Italian region.
For regions within the ITSN, shifts are typically 5–10 km in location and up to 20 km in depth. However, for offshore and coastal regions, they are much greater: 50 km or more in both location and depth (far exceeding the equivalent uncertainties quoted by ING bulletins). Possible consequences of this are highlighted by producing a cross-section of subcrustal hypocentres from the Adriatic to the Tyrrhenian Sea, where the large uncertainty in depth precludes any confident interpretation of dipping tectonic features. 相似文献
We compute synthetic arrival times using a 1-D velocity model appropriate as an average for the Italian area. The hypocentres used are all those recorded by the ITSN during the period January 1992 to March 1994 (1972 events). Station locations are those of the current ITSN configuration. The synthetic arrival times are perturbed with a Gaussian distribution of errors and input to ING's standard hypocentral location procedure, but using crustal velocities differing by 10 per cent from those used to generate them. Each simulation is repeated at least 30 times. Average absolute shifts of hypocentres are assessed in grid cells of linear dimension 33 km covering the whole Italian region.
For regions within the ITSN, shifts are typically 5–10 km in location and up to 20 km in depth. However, for offshore and coastal regions, they are much greater: 50 km or more in both location and depth (far exceeding the equivalent uncertainties quoted by ING bulletins). Possible consequences of this are highlighted by producing a cross-section of subcrustal hypocentres from the Adriatic to the Tyrrhenian Sea, where the large uncertainty in depth precludes any confident interpretation of dipping tectonic features. 相似文献
3.
J.?M.?UgidosEmail author K.?Billstr?m M.?I.?Valladares P.?Barba 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2003,92(5):661-676
Sandstones and shales from the Upper Neoproterozoic (UN) succession in the Central Iberian Zone (CIZ) show parallel REE patterns and relatively restricted and similar ranges and average values of some element ratios such as Al2O3/TiO2, Ti/Nb, Eu/Eu*, (La/Yb)n, (Gd/Yb)n and Th/U. This remarkable geochemical homogeneity for related medium- and fine-grained rocks is unusual, and strongly suggests a recycled source area. However, the Lower Cambrian (LC) equivalent rocks are, in general terms, geochemically less mature, more heterogeneous and more fractionated. Their average REE patterns are practically coincident, probably as a consequence of REE redistribution related to the reworking of sediments during a stage of sea level fall in Lower Cambrian times. Ti and Zr abundances, chemical index of alteration (CIA) values and element ratios such as Al2O3/TiO2, K/Rb, Ti/Nb and Rb/Zr can be used for discriminating purposes between the UN and LC siliciclastic rocks. Detrital zircons from a UN and a LC sandstone display morphological differences. However, U-Pb data are discordant and cannot be interpreted in a straightforward manner. Nevertheless, age data are compatible with a model in which the continent of Gondwana would have supplied zircons, showing a bimodal age distribution, in variable proportions to the respective sandstone units. 相似文献
4.
Is compression across the northern Apennine fold‐and‐thrust system (Italy) still active? To address this question, we quantified the long‐term rates of migration and shortening of the system along with the measurement errors. Our approach integrates structural geology, seismicity patterns, and statistical treatment of tectonic activity. On the basis of recently published surface and subsurface data, we found a migration rate of 8.85 ± 0.61 mm yr−1. The inception age of individual fold structures follow closely this average rate, indicating that the system has been migrating at a constant rate for the past 17 Myr. Cumulative shortening of the system also increases linearly through time at 2.93 ± 0.31 mm yr−1. The location of the youngest structures in the easternmost portion of the system coincides with a significant peak of seismic moment released by historical earthquakes. We conclude that not only these easternmost thrusts are still active, but also that they generate earthquakes. 相似文献
5.
Karim Kelfoun Pablo Samaniego Pablo Palacios Diego Barba 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(9):1057-1075
We use a well-monitored eruption of Tungurahua volcano to test the validity of the frictional behaviour, also called Mohr–Coulomb,
which is generally used in geophysical flow modelling. We show that the frictional law is not appropriate for the simulation
of pyroclastic flows at Tungurahua. With this law, the longitudinal shape of the simulated flows is a thin wedge of material
progressively passing, over several hundreds of metres, from an unrealistic thickness at the front (<<1 mm) to some tens of
centimetres. Simulated deposits form piles which accumulate at the foot of the volcano and are more similar to sand piles
than natural pyroclastic deposits. Finally, flows simulated with a frictional rheology are not channelised by the drainage
system, but affect all the flanks of the volcano. In addition, their velocity can exceed 150 m s−1, allowing pyroclastic flows to cross interfluves at bends in the valley, affecting areas that would not have been affected
in reality and leaving clear downstream areas that would be covered in reality. Instead, a simple empirical law, a constant
retarding stress (i.e. a yield strength), involving only one free parameter, appears to be much better adapted for modelling
pyroclastic flows. A similar conclusion was drawn for the Socompa debris avalanche simulation (Kelfoun and Druitt, J Geophys
Res 110:B12202, 2005). 相似文献
6.
This article focuses on the Montello thrust system in the Eastern Southern Alps as a potential seismogenic source. This system is of particular interest because of its lack of historical seismicity. Nevertheless, the system is undergoing active deformation. We developed a finite‐element model using visco‐elasto‐plastic rheology. The free parameters of the model (essentially, the locking status of the three thrusts included in the study), were constrained by matching the observed horizontal GPS and vertical levelling data. We show that the amount of interseismic fault locking, and thus the seismic potential, is not necessarily associated with the fastest‐slipping faults. More specifically, the locked Bassano thrust has a greater seismic potential than the freely slipping Montello thrust. The findings suggest that faults with subtle evidence of Quaternary activity should be carefully considered when creating seismic hazard maps. 相似文献
7.
C. Doglioni S. Barba E. Carminati F. Riguzzi 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2011,184(3-4):160-171
We model a fault cross-cutting the brittle upper crust and the ductile lower crust. In the brittle layer the fault is assumed to have stick–slip behaviour, whereas the lower ductile crust is inferred to deform in a steady-state shear. Therefore, the brittle–ductile transition (BDT) separates two layers with different strain rates and structural styles. This contrasting behaviour determines a stress gradient at the BDT that is eventually dissipated during the earthquake. During the interseismic period, along a normal fault it should form a dilated hinge at and above the BDT. Conversely, an over-compressed volume should rather develop above a thrust plane at the BDT. On a normal fault the earthquake is associated with the coseismic closure of the dilated fractures generated in the stretched hangingwall during the interseismic period. In addition to the shear stress overcoming the friction of the fault, the brittle fault moves when the weight of the hangingwall exceeds the strength of the dilated band above the BDT. On a thrust fault, the seismic event is instead associated with the sudden dilation of the previously over-compressed volume in the hangingwall above the BDT, a mechanism requiring much more energy because it acts against gravity. In both cases, the deeper the BDT, the larger the involved volume, and the bigger the related magnitude.We tested two scenarios with two examples from L’Aquila 2009 (Italy) and Chi-Chi 1999 (Taiwan) events. GPS data, energy dissipation and strain rate analysis support these contrasting evolutions. Our model also predicts, consistently with data, that the interseismic strain rate is lower along the fault segment more prone to seismic activation. 相似文献
8.
Rainfall variability,rainfed agriculture and degree of human marginality in North Guanajuato,Mexico 
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下载免费PDF全文 Rebeca Granados Jesus Soria Moises Cortina 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2017,38(2):153-166
Mexico has a heterogeneous climate due to its geographical location. Half of the Mexican territory is dryland, mostly in the centre and north of the country, within which agriculture is the main activity in the primary production sector. At present, climate variability has a strong impact on Mexican agriculture. This study analysed rainfall variability, its impact on the agricultural productivity in terms of harvested quantity and productivity of 1996‐2014, and in parallel, the role that socioeconomic development plays on the well‐being of the population who live in areas with rainfed agriculture and a semi‐dry climate. The data obtained were analysed with the Statistical Analysis System. A positive correlation was found between rainfall and productivity (r = 0.76 for maize; r = 0.711 for beans). Rainfall variations therefore have a great impact on agricultural productivity, on food security and on the economy. Besides production losses, a parallel consequence is marginalization of the population because producers' income is increasingly reduced due to smaller crop volumes. 相似文献
9.
Effects of mining wastes on a seagrass ecosystem: metal accumulation and bioavailability, seagrass dynamics and associated community structure 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Marín-Guirao L Atucha AM Barba JL López EM Fernández AJ 《Marine environmental research》2005,60(3):317-337
Two different Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson beds growing in mining-contaminated sediments were compared with two reference beds in the Mar Menor coastal lagoon. The accumulation of Zn, Pb and Cd in different fractions of the plant, the sediment parameters that regulate the availability of metals, the seabed structure and dynamics of each seagrass bed and its associated macroinvertebrate community were studied. C. nodosa accumulates metals from the sediments and reflects their bioavailability for this seagrass. At each station, the metal content of the rhizomes was lower than that of leaves and roots. The concentration of acid-volatile sulfides does not seem to influence the availability of metals to the seagrass, possibly due to oxygen transport to underground tissues. The highest metal concentration in all the contaminated stations was found in the leaf-biofilm, due to the formation of complexes between metals and the extracellular polymeric substances that form the biofilm. All the seagrass beds were seen to be undergoing expansion, those growing in contaminated sediments accumulating great quantities of metals and showing highest photosynthetic leaf surface area and highest leaf biomass. However, these structural parameters were not seen to be responsible for the differences in the faunal composition observed between contaminated and reference beds. Moreover, the multivariate analysis identified the metal content of leaves, biofilm and sediments as important variables that may be responsible for these differences in faunal composition. In this study we have demonstrated that both the seagrass C. nodosa and the biofilm on the plant leaves may be used as environmental tools in the Mar Menor lagoon. The former is an useful indicator of sediment contamination, whereas the latter seems to be a good sentinel of water quality. 相似文献
10.
By means of a 2D finite‐element procedure, we tested how heterogeneities at the scale of seismogenic fault affect the displacement. We defined one or more slip distributions for two typical normal‐faulting earthquakes in the Central Apennines, computed the displacement occurred within different structures including lateral heterogeneities, and compared the different displacement profiles to isolate the effect of the crustal structure. To understand at what magnitude the heterogeneities affect the observation significantly, we compared the predicted coseismic displacement with GPS and DInSAR data for the Colfiorito 1997 earthquake. We find that heterogeneities significantly affect the observable horizontal coseismic displacement for the larger magnitudes, whereas for smaller quakes, they affect horizontal displacement close to the fault trace only. 相似文献