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Ngo?Thi?LuEmail author M.?V.?Rodkin Tran?Viet?Phuong Nguyen?Quang Phung?Thi?Thu Hang Vu?Thi?Hoan 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2017,11(2):164-171
The highest seismic activity in Vietnam is observed in the northwest of the country, hence the practical significance of more accurate assessment of the earthquake hazard for the area. The worldwide experience of seismicity, in particular, the recent Tohoku mega-earthquake (March 11, 2011, M w = 9.0, Japan) shows that instrumental and historical data alone are insufficient to reliably estimate earthquake hazard. This is all the more relevant in relation to Vietnam where the period of instrumental observation is short and historical evidence is nearly lacking. In this connection we made an attempt to construct maps of earthquake hazard based on known seismicity data using the available geological and geophysical data and the method of G.I. Reisner and his associates for classification of areas by seismic potential. Since the question of what geological and geophysical parameters are to be used and with what weights remains unresolved, we developed a program package to estimate Mmax based on different options in the use of geological and geophysical data. In this paper we discuss the first results and the promise held by this program package. 相似文献
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Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The known methods for identifying the clusters of seismic events that are mainly formed by the aftershocks frequently include debatable initial assumptions... 相似文献
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V. F. Pisarenko A. Sornette D. Sornette M. V. Rodkin 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(2):709-713
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Sh. R. Bogoutdinov S. M. Agayan A. D. Gvishiani E. M. Graeva M. V. Rodkin J. Zlotnicki J. L. Le Mouél 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2007,43(7):597-609
The expert processing of monitoring data of large networks on hazardous natural phenomena becomes increasingly more complicated due to an increase in the initial data flow. An approach alternative to the visual recognition of signals is proposed. A number of recognition algorithms and results of their application to the analysis of geoelectric potential monitoring data are discussed. Data of monitoring La Fournaise Volcano (Réunion Island) obtained in the vicinity of the intense volcanic eruption of 1988 are used. The obtained results show that these algorithms are capable of recognizing anomalous segments of records and discriminating between several types of anomalies presumably associated with the effects of various physical factors (heavy atmospheric precipitation, hydrothermal processes, and so on). The algorithms proposed in this work can be used both for the automation of expert work in operating monitoring systems and in investigations aimed at the identification of typical morphologic sequences in time series of data of various origins. 相似文献
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A. M. Korzhenkov J. R. Arrowsmith C. J. Crosby B. Guralnik E. A. Rogozhin A. A. Sorokin S. V. Abdieva A. B. Fortuna A. S. Yudakhin A. R. Agatova E. V. Deev J. V. Mazeika M. V. Rodkin J. Shen 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2018,54(2):252-268
The study and radiocarbon dating of the low alluvial terraces of the Chon-Aksuu River, in the Northern Issyk-Kul region, which were broken by the Kebin (Kemin) earthquake of 1911 (Ms = 8.2, Io = 10 to 11), are carried out. The obtained radiocarbon dated ages refer to the second half of the Holocene. Since that time, at least eight strong earthquakes took place along this (Chon-Aksuu) segment of the Aksuu border fault. Three seismic events, including the earthquake of 1911 occurred in the second millennium A.D. This outburst of seismic energy was preceded by two millennia of seismic quiescence, which set in after another pulse of seismic activation. The latter lasted for 1.5 millennia and included five strong earthquakes. The recurrence period of seismic events during the activations is 300–600 years. Hence, the seismic regime along the Chon–Aksuu segment of the Aksuu border fault in the second half of the Holocene was a succession of two seismic activations, each with a duration of 1.0–1.5 ka, which were separated by a 2-ka interval of seismic quiescence. Therefore, the absolute datings of the river terraces of different ages which have been broken by a seismogenic rupture can serve as a reliable source of information about the age of the strong earthquakes that occurred along the seismogenic fault. 相似文献
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Pisarenko V. F. Rodkin M. V. Rukavishnikova T. A. 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2020,56(1):53-65
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - A new composite model is suggested for the frequency–magnitude relation of the earthquakes. The new model statistically reasonably describes the... 相似文献
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The traces of strong earthquakes in the territory of Fennoscandia have been recorded by many scientists already for several decades. The seismogenerating paleostructures, such as postglacial discontinuities in the crystalline basement accompanied by a complex of deformations in the loose deposits are found in the territories of Sweden, Norway, and Finland that border Russia, in which case the spatial correlation of the postglacial faults and modern seismicity is established. Such structures have not yet been discovered in Russia, though the traces of strong earthquakes in the form of rock deformations and postglacial sediments are found by different groups of researchers over the whole territory of Eastern Fennoscandia. The obtained data make it possible to identify the linear zones of concentration of paleoearthquakes (seismic lineaments) that also occur in the modern relief and modern seismicity. However, the problem of postglacial seismicity remains a subject for discussions concerning the localization of the foci, their genesis, and regime. A remaining issue is also distinguishing between seismogenic, cryogenic, and glaciodislocations. The important questions that need to be solved include parametrization of paleoearthquakes and determination of their nature, structures, age, and magnitude. One of the key segments is the area of Vottovaara Mountain in Middle Karelia, which is a part of the Vottovaara–Girvas seismic lineament, where seismic dislocations were found earlier. For studying this probable paleo-focal zone in detail, remote sensing data, field geological and geomorphological observations, and computational methods for estimating the peak values of paleoearthquake mass velocities are used. The typical zones of development of different types of seismic deformations are revealed. A potential seismogenerating fault related to the northwest-striking Vottovaara–Girvas seismic lineament is found; its probable shear kinematics is determined from the ratio of pulse displacements of rock blocks on different wings of the fault. The sequence of a few strong events which occurred here in the interglacial and postglacial periods is identified. The effects of interaction between the seismic activity and the glacial exaration on the formation of the modern image of the focal zone are established. Using alternative approaches to estimating shaking intensity by the macroseismic INQUA scale, the scale by F.F. Aptikayev, and the nomogram by M.V. Rodkin, the intensity of the recent strong Early Holocene seismic event, which occurred here at 8.9 ka according to A.D. Lukashov, is determined. According to the agreed estimates, the intensity reached 9–10 points at a probable magnitude of 7.5–8. This work carried out using a number of new approaches developed by the authors makes it possible to characterize paleoseismicity in more detail. 相似文献
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V. F. Pisarenko M. V. Rodkin T. A. Rukavishnikova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2017,53(6):805-818
The most general approach to studying the recurrence law in the area of the rare largest events is associated with the use of limit law theorems of the theory of extreme values. In this paper, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The unknown GPD parameters are typically determined by the method of maximal likelihood (ML). However, the ML estimation is only optimal for the case of fairly large samples (>200–300), whereas in many practical important cases, there are only dozens of large events. It is shown that in the case of a small number of events, the highest accuracy in the case of using the GPD is provided by the method of quantiles (MQs). In order to illustrate the obtained methodical results, we have formed the compiled data sets characterizing the tails of the distributions for typical subduction zones, regions of intracontinental seismicity, and for the zones of midoceanic (MO) ridges. This approach paves the way for designing a new method for seismic risk assessment. Here, instead of the unstable characteristics—the uppermost possible magnitude Mmax—it is recommended to use the quantiles of the distribution of random maxima for a future time interval. The results of calculating such quantiles are presented. 相似文献
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