Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods     

Crisci  G. M.  Di Gregorio  S.  Rongo  R.  Spataro  W.  Nicoletta  F. 《Natural Hazards》1999,20(2-3):215-229

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.  相似文献   

Simulating the Curti–Sarno debris flow through cellular automata: the model SCIDDICA (release S₂)     

D D’Ambrosio  S Di Gregorio  G Iovine  V Lupiano  L Merenda  R Rongo  W Spataro 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2002,27(36):1577-1585

  相似文献   

Revisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area     

G. M. Crisci  S. Di Gregorio  R. Rongo  M. Scarpelli  W. Spataro  S. Calvari 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2003,123(1-2):211

Cellular Automata provide an alternative approach to standard numerical methods for modelling some complex natural systems, the behaviour of which can be described in terms of local interactions of their constituent parts. SCIARA is a 2-D Cellular Automata model which simulates lava flows. It was tested on, validated by, and improved on several Etnean lava events such as the 1986–1987 eruption and the first and last phase of the 1991–1993 event. With respect to forecasting the surface covered by the lava flows, the best results were acceptable. The model has been used to determine hazard zones in the inhabited areas of Nicolosi, Pedara, S. Alfio and Zafferana (Sicily, Italy). The main goal of the current work in the Etnean area from Nicolosi to Catania has been the verification of the volcanic hazard effects of an eruptive crisis similar to the event that occurred in 1669. The simulation uses the volcanic data of the 1669 eruption with present-day morphology. Catania has been affected by some historical Etnean events, the most famous one being the 1669 eruption, involving 1 km³ of lava erupted over the course of 120 days. The simulation of ephemeral vents and the use of different histories within the experiments have been crucial in the determination of a new hazard area for Catania. In fact, during the simulation the city was never affected without the introduction of ephemeral vents, proving the fact that lava tubes played a fundamental role in the 1669 Catania lava crisis.  相似文献