Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages,losses, risks,and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside,Oregon     

Sanderson  Dylan  Kameshwar  Sabarethinam  Rosenheim  Nathanael  Cox  Daniel 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1821-1847

This paper presents a methodology to deaggregate the results of a multi-hazard damage analysis by extending the traditional multi-hazard damage analysis to consider both population characteristics and independent hazards. The methodology is applied to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon, considering four infrastructure systems: (1) buildings, (2) transportation network, (3) electric power network and (4) water supply network. Damages to all infrastructure systems are evaluated, and the networked infrastructures are used to inform parcel connectivity to critical facilities. US Census data and a probabilistic housing unit allocation method are implemented to assign detailed household demographic characteristics at the parcel level. Six dimensions of deaggregation are introduced: (1) spatial, (2) hazard type, (3) hazard intensity, (4) infrastructure system, (5) infrastructure component, and (6) housing unit characteristics. The damages, economic losses and risks, and connectivity to critical facilities are deaggregated across these six dimensions. The results show that deaggregated economic loss and risk plots can allow community resilience planners the ability to isolate high-risk events, as well as provide insights into the underlying driving forces. Geospatial representation of the results allows for the identification of both vulnerable buildings and areas within a community and is highlighted by the spatial pattern of parcel disconnection from critical facilities. The incorporation of population characteristics provides an understanding of how hazards disproportionately impact population subgroups and can aide in equitable resilience planning.

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Constraining initial Th activity in incrementally deposited, biogenic aragonite from the Bahamas     

Brad E. Rosenheim  Peter K. Swart 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(16):4025-4035

The ²³⁰Th content of subsurface Bahamas seawater has been estimated from incrementally deposited aragonite skeletons of sclerosponges using U-series age models which imply syndepositional incorporation of ²³⁰Th. First order age models, assuming constant growth rate and zero initial ²³⁰Th activity, display an average surface age of 63 ± 18 y despite the fact that the surfaces of the organisms were known to be alive at the time collection in the 1990s. A knowledge of the initial ²³⁰Th activity is necessary to incorporate the surface age constraint into an age model. In the Bahamas, this approach estimates an initial ²³⁰Th/²³²Th activity ratio of 4.3 ± 1.1 when applied to several individuals of the Caribbean sclerosponge Ceratoporella nicholsoni. These results differ from the same approach applied to previous work on Jamaican sclerosponges accreting aragonite in an environment closer to crustal sources and with less carbonate substrate. We report new measurements of Jamaican sclerosponge suggesting initial activity ratios of ²³⁰Th/²³²Th of ∼1, albeit with a high amount of uncertainty, indicating a regional difference in initial thorium activities. The estimates of initial ²³⁰Th/²³²Th activity ratios in the Bahamas are similar to the dissolved ratio rather than the particulate ratio and can be explained by mixing of open ocean water and bank-top surface water, however no information regarding temporal changes in the amount of initial ²³⁰Th/²³²Th activity available for incorporation into biogenic aragonite can be constrained using this approach. Growth rates do not change after correction for initial thorium and they display an inverse relationship with depth. Although this paper deals uniquely with sclerosponge aragonite, it is likely that the approach can be used on any incrementally deposited biogenic aragonite, provided information is known a priori about the first order growth model and there is evidence that initial thorium incorporation is representative of ambient environment rather than individual physiology.  相似文献