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A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system. 相似文献
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The western part of the Hidaka Metamorphic Belt, Hokkaido, consistsof primary pyroxene gabbro and lesser amounts of olivine gabbrothat have been dynamically metamorphosed to metagabbro—gabbroicamphibolite-amphibolite-epidote amphibolite during uplift andshearing about 23 m.y. ago. Textures and the presence of relic and recrystallized amphiboleand plagioclase in the same rock indicate incomplete reactionand non attainment of equilibrium during recrystallization. EPMA and bulk analyses of 165 amphiboles indicate a continuousoverall compositional range from actinolite to dark green hornblende(with 100 mg/(Mg+Fe2++Fe3+Mn) ratios varying from 89.5 to 32.0)marked by increasing Al, Fe, Ti, and Na. A compositional gapis usually present between relic and recrystallized amphibolesin any one rock which becomes more prominent with increasingshearing. In addition to host rock chemical control, amphibole compositionis largely dependent on the An content of coexisting plagioclase.Locally epidote and sphene exert a strong influence on bothamphibole and plagioclase compositions. Amphibole Ti and Mncontents decrease with shearing and Fe enrichment of the hostrocks largely as a result of the incoming of rutile, sphene,and Fe-Ti oxides. Analysis of host rock oxidation ratio andamphibole compositions indicates that the rocks essentiallybehaved as closed systems to oxygen during metamorphism. Al1V-AlIV, AlIV-Fe3+, and AlIV-(Na, K)A are the main substitutionsin the amphiboles. Within any one rock the recrystallized amphibolesare enriched in Al, Fe, Ti, and Na relative to the relice amphiboles.Increasing metamorphism results in a progressive change of amphiboles(recrystallized) to more Fe and Si (rather than Al) rich compositionsreflecting the trend towards greenschist where Fe-actinolite(+Mg chlorite) would be stable. Differentiation of the amphiboles is within the limits of SiAlreplacement and the compositional limits of the early stagereaction rim and replacement amphiboles in the host olivineand pyroxene metagabbros. 相似文献
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