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Massimiliano Barbolini Federica Cappabianca Fabrizio Savi 《Surveys in Geophysics》2003,24(5-6):587-601
A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0 ∞ P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem. 相似文献
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Slobodan B. Marković Eric A. Oches Zoran M. Perić Tivadar Gaudenyi Mlađen Jovanović Györgi Sipos Christine Thiel Jan-Pieter Buylaert Stevan Savić William D. McCoy Milica G. Radaković Rastko S. Marković Milivoj B. Gavrilov 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(8):1436-1447
The loess sequence preserved in the Požarevac brickyard in north-eastern Serbia comprises eight loess units separated by seven paleosols. Geochronological investigation using amino acid racemization and luminescence dating support stratigraphic correlations of loess units L3, S2LL1 and L1 at the Požarevac section with loess of glacial cycles E [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10], D (MIS 9–8), C (MIS 7–6) and B (MIS 5–2) across central Europe. Correlation with the marine oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and associated paleoclimatic inferences are further supported by magnetic susceptibility, particle size and carbonate content measured in Požarevac sediments. Malacological investigations at the Požarevac section reveal the continuous presence of the Chondrula tridens and Helicopsis striata faunal assemblages throughout the last 350 ka. The loess malacological fauna, which is characterized by the complete absence of cold-resistant and cold-preferring species, suggests a stable, dry and relatively warm glacial and interglacial climate, compared with other central European loess localities. Together these data suggest that the south-eastern part of the Carpathian (Pannonian, Middle Danube) Basin was a refugium for warm-preferring and xerophilous land-snails during the generally unfavorable glacial climates of the late Middle and Late Pleistocene. 相似文献
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Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city,Novi Sad (Serbia) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stevan Savić Vladimir Marković Ivan Šećerov Dragoslav Pavić Daniela Arsenović Dragan Milošević Dragan Dolinaj Imre Nagy Milana Pantelić 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):891-911
Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc. 相似文献
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Cold and warm air temperature spells during the winter and summer seasons and their impact on energy consumption in urban areas 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The main objective of this study is to determine and analyze cold and warm air temperature spells in the last 6 years (2007–2012) and reveal their impact on electrical energy consumption in a small-sized city such as Sombor (Serbia) with less than 50,000 inhabitants. Hourly air temperature values and electrical energy consumption data have been used as database for all methods. Warm and cold temperature spells (during heat and cold waves) have had the increasing tendencies in the last 6 years and they reflect on additional electrical energy consumption. Detailed analysis showed that higher energy demands occur during workdays and daytime period. Monitoring of the amount of consumed energy showed a clear relationship during the winter cold temperature spells, when electrical energy demand was higher than 0.3 MW. In summer period, the relationship was weaker and consumption was higher than 0.15 MW only when temperature exceeded 30 °C. A small number of air condition devices in houses and companies and mainly one-store buildings with thick walls, which make a good insulation from the outside air temperatures, are probably the main reasons for the above-mentioned results in summer. This paper introduces a new method to resolve the problem of short-term load forecasting, based on the support vector machines (SVM) technology and particle swarm optimization that has been used to optimize the SVM parameters. Similar-day-based forecast has shown that similar days for training should be filtered also using classifier of temperature period (cooling degree-days or heating degree-days in a row). Forecasting error is smaller compared to solutions where similar days are found only on season and temperature. 相似文献
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Igor Leščešen Dragan Dolinaj Milana Pantelić Stevan Savić Dragan Milošević 《Water Resources》2018,45(3):418-426
Rivers on territory of the Republic of Serbia can be separated to three sea drainage basins: Black, Adriatic and Aegean. Majority of rivers belong to the Black Sea drainage basin. The Danube is the most important river in Serbia and one of the most important rivers of Europe. All rivers investigated in this paper represent direct or indirect tributaries of the Danube River and as that, they are belonging to the Black Sea drainage basin. In this study, the water quality status and the spatial and temporal trends of seven major rivers in Serbia were assessed through the application of ten parameters of Water Quality Index. Ten year (2004–2013) public database of environmental data was used. Into considerations were taken differences between every river individually and difference between sample positions on every single river. Based on the chemical parameters of water quality, it can be seen that the biggest rivers in Serbia show different values of WQ parameters. The highest WQ value is measured on the Drina River, while the lowest value is measured on the Ju?na Morava and the Tisza River. Analyses of parameters per period of year show that there is a statistically significant difference between values during warm and cold periods. 相似文献
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Sara Savi Michelle Schneuwly‐Bollschweiler Bastian Bommer‐Denns Markus Stoffel Fritz Schlunegger 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(9):959-969
The coupling relationships between hillslope and channel network are fundamental for the understanding of mountainous landscapes' evolution. Here, we applied dendrogeomorphic methods to identify the hillslope–channel relationship and the sediment transfer dynamics within an alpine catchment, at the highest possible resolution. The Schimbrig catchment is located in the central Swiss Alps and can be divided into two distinct geomorphic sectors. To the east, the Schimbrig earth flow is the largest sediment source of the basin, while to the west, the Rossloch channel network is affected by numerous shallow landslides responsible for the supply of sediment from hillslopes to channels. To understand the connectivity between hillslopes and channels and between sources and sink, trees were sampled along the main Rossloch stream, on the Schimbrig earth flow and on the Rossloch depositional area. Geomorphic observations and dendrogeomophic results indicate different mechanisms of sediment production, transfer and deposition between upper and lower segments of the channel network. In the source areas (upper part of the Rossloch channel system), sediment is delivered to the channel network through slow movements of the ground, typical of earth flow, shallow landslides and soil creep. Contrariwise, in the depositional area (lower part of the channel network), the mechanisms of sediment transfer are mainly due to torrential activity, floods and debris flows. Tree analysis allowed the reconstruction of periods of high activity during the last century for the entire catchment. The collected dataset presents a very high temporal resolution but we encountered some limitations in establishing the source‐to‐sink connectivity at the catchment‐wide scale. Despite these uncertainties, for decennial timescales the results suggest a direct coupling between hillslopes and neighbouring channels in the Rossloch channel network, and a de‐coupling between sediment sources and sink farther downstream, with connections possible only during extraordinary events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In recent decades, slope instability in high-mountain regions has often been linked to increase in temperature and the associated permafrost degradation and/or the increase in frequency/intensity of rainstorm events. In this context we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and potential controlling mechanisms of small- to medium-sized mass movements in a high-elevation catchment of the Italian Alps (Sulden/Solda basin). We found that slope-failure events (mostly in the form of rockfalls) have increased since the 2000s, whereas the occurrence of debris flows has increased only since 2010. The current climate-warming trend registered in the study area apparently increases the elevation of rockfall-detachment areas by approximately 300 m, mostly controlled by the combined effects of frost-cracking and permafrost thawing. In contrast, the occurrence of debris flows does not exhibit such an altitudinal shift, as it is primarily driven by extreme precipitation events exceeding the 75th percentile of the intensity-duration rainfall distribution. Potential debris-flow events in this environment may additionally be influenced by the accumulation of unconsolidated debris over time, which is then released during extreme rainfall events. Overall, there is evidence that the upper Sulden/Solda basin (above ca. 2500 m above sea level [a.s.l.]), and especially the areas in the proximity of glaciers, have experienced a significant decrease in slope stability since the 2000s, and that an increase in rockfalls and debris flows during spring and summer can be inferred. Our study thus confirms that “forward-looking” hazard mapping should be undertaken in these increasingly frequented, high-elevation areas of the Alps, as environmental change has elevated the overall hazard level in these regions. 相似文献
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Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates
both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the
catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the
rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective
function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or
discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical
flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or
missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a
Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence
and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a
lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions. 相似文献
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Dynamical models for calculating snow avalanche motion have gained growingimportance in recent years for avalanche hazard assessment. Nevertheless, inherentuncertainties in their input-data specification, although well acknowledged, areusually not explicitly incorporated into the analysis and considered in the mappingresults. In particular, the estimate of avalanche release conditions is affected bystrong uncertainties when associated to a return period. These sources of error arenormally addressed through sensitivity analysis or conservative parameters estimate.However, each of these approaches has limitations in assessing the statistical implications of uncertainties.In the present paper the problem of release scenarios randomness is looked at following a Monte Carlo procedure. This statistical sampling-analysis method allows the evaluation of the probability distributions of relevant variables for avalanche hazard assessment – such as runout distance and impact pressure – once the release variables – essentially releasedepth and release length – are expressed in terms of probability distributions, accounting explicitly for inherent uncertainties in their definition. Both the theoretical framework of this procedure and its application to a real study case are presented. As initial step of this research in the present work the attention is mainly focused on flowing avalanches descending on open slopes. Therefore, the one-dimensional version of VARA dynamic models is usedfor avalanche simulations. 相似文献