Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai,India: Is statistical forecasting futile?     

Jitendra Singh  Sheeba Sekharan  Subhankar Karmakar  Subimal Ghosh  P E Zope  T I Eldho 《Journal of Earth System Science》2017,126(3):38

Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006–2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013–2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.  相似文献   

Analysis of WRCC of Fly Ash-Bentonite Mixes Based on Combined Shrinkage and Suction Measurement     

Deka  Abhijit  Gupt  Chandra B.  Sekharan  Sreedeep 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(5):3889-3901

Sand-Bentonite mixtures are used in landfill liner application in appropriate proportions. However, effort has been made to replace the sand by some waste materials like fly ash without compromising the required properties for liner construction. In recent years, many studies were carried out to determine the suitability of different fly ashes for using with bentonite based on different geotechnical parameters. On the other hand, limited studies were found in determining the unsaturated characteristics i.e. Water Retention Characteristics Curve (WRCC) of fly ash-bentonite mixes. The determination of WRCC in case of bentonite is very complexed compared to other types of clay soil due to its high shrinkage and swelling characteristics upon drying and wetting. In this study, a combined shrinkage and suction measurement was carried out in fly ash-bentonite mixes to accurately represent the WRCC under drying condition only. The shrinkage measurement was carried out using balloon method and suction measurement was carried out with the help of WP4 dew point potentiameter device. Both the shrinkage and suction results were finally used to obtain the WRCC for the different mixes. Further, the study on the variability of WRCCs for the different mixes indicates that WRCC can be represented by a generalized plot with 20% variation.

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