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Khouloud Gader Ahlem Gara Marnik Vanclooster Slaheddine Khlifi Mohamed Slimani 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(8):1300-1315
ABSTRACT Predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources remains a challenging task and requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the forcing terms in the past. In this study, the variability of precipitation and drought patterns is studied over the Mediterranean catchment of the Medjerda in Tunisia based on an observed rainfall dataset collected at 41 raingauges during the period 1973–2012. The standardized precipitation index and the aridity index were used to characterize drought variability. Multivariate and geostatistical techniques were further employed to identify the spatial variability of annual rainfall. The results show that the Medjerda is marked by a significant spatio-temporal variability of drought, with varying extreme wet and dry events. Four regions with distinct rainfall regimes are identified by utilizing the K-means cluster analysis. A principal component analysis identifies the variables that are responsible for the relationships between precipitation and drought variability. 相似文献
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A. W. Blain R. J. Ivison & Ian Smail 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,296(3):L29-L33
The first observations to detect a population of distant galaxies directly in the submillimetre waveband have recently been made using the new Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT). The results indicate that a large number of distant galaxies are radiating strongly in this waveband. Here we discuss their significance for source confusion in future millimetre/submillimetre-wave observations of both distant galaxies and cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) anisotropies. Earlier estimates of such confusion involved significant extrapolation of the results of observations of galaxies at low redshifts; our new estimates do not, as they are derived from direct observations of distant galaxies in the submillimetre waveband. The results have important consequences for the design and operation of existing and proposed millimetre/submillimetre-wave telescopes: the Planck Surveyor survey will be confusion-limited at frequencies greater than 350 GHz, even in the absence of Galactic dust emission; a 1σ confusion noise limit of about 0.44 mJy beam−1 is expected for the JCMT/SCUBA at a wavelength of 850 μm; and the subarcsecond resolution of large millimetre/submillimetre-wave interferometer arrays will be required in order to execute very deep galaxy surveys. 相似文献
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Simon Dye Ian Smail A. M. Swinbank H. Ebeling A. C. Edge 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(1):308-316
We model the mass distribution in the recently discovered Einstein ring LBG J213512.73−010143 (the 'Cosmic Eye') using archival Hubble Space Telescope imaging. We reconstruct the mass density profile of the z = 0.73 lens and the surface brightness distribution of the z = 3.07 source and find that the observed ring is best fitted with a dual-component lens model consisting of a baryonic Sersic component nested within a dark matter halo. The dark matter halo has an inner slope of 1.42+0.24 −0.22 , consistent with cold dark matter simulations after allowing for baryon contraction. The baryonic component has a mass-to-light ratio of 1.71+0.28 −0.38 M⊙ /L B ⊙ which when evolved to the present day is in agreement with local ellipticals. Within the Einstein radius of 0.77 arcsec (5.6 kpc), the baryons account for 46 ± 11 per cent of the projected lens mass. External shear from a nearby foreground cluster is accurately predicted by the model. The reconstructed surface brightness distribution in the source plane clearly shows two peaks. Through a generalization of our lens inversion method, we conclude that the redshifts of both peaks are consistent with each other, suggesting that we are seeing structure within a single galaxy. 相似文献
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R.H.D. Townsend R.J. Ivison Ian Smail A.W. Blain D.T. Frayer 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,328(2):L19-L22
A numerical model of the Leonid stream is developed, based on an earlier model which has been applied to the Perseid stream. The results for this model are applied to the 2001 Leonid return. By examining the full three-dimensional dispersion of individual 'streamlets' released from the Leonid parent comet, 55P/Tempel–Tuttle, we have derived an estimate for the temporal change in spatial density of each trail. Using this result along with an estimate for the location of the centres for individual streamlets and fits to previous Leonid storm profiles, we estimate that the activity from the shower will be broad and relatively strong (zenithal hourly rates perhaps in excess of 1000). In particular, streamlets from the 1766 and 1799 ejections contribute to activity peaking near 10 and 12 ut on 2001 November 18, respectively. Additional older material from 1633, 1666 and 1699, as well as more recent ejections from 1866 and 1833, contributes to a much broader secondary maximum near 17.5 ut on November 18. Comparison with other published models of predicted Leonid activity in 2001 shows general agreement in terms of timing, but the models differ significantly in terms of the relative magnitude of the activity (which other models suggest will be larger). Significant anisotropy in the impact hazard exists for satellites in the geostationary belt, with those over western longitudes most likely to be affected. Integrated fluences for the 2001 Leonid return suggest a hazard of order one magnitude greater than occurred for the 1999 Leonid storm. 相似文献
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The Las Campanas/AAT rich cluster survey – I. Precision and reliability of the photometric catalogue
Kevin A. Pimbblet Ian Smail Alastair C. Edge Warrick J. Couch Eileen O'Hely Ann I. Zabludoff 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,327(2):588-600
The Las Campanas Observatory and Anglo-Australian Telescope Rich Cluster Survey (LARCS) is a panoramic imaging and spectroscopic survey of an X-ray luminosity-selected sample of 21 clusters of galaxies at . Charge-coupled device (CCD) imaging was obtained in B and R of typically 2° wide regions centred on the 21 clusters, and the galaxy sample selected from the imaging is being used for an on-going spectroscopic survey of the clusters with the 2dF spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. This paper presents the reduction of the imaging data and the photometric analysis used in the survey. Based on an overlapping area of 12.3 deg2 we compare the CCD-based LARCS catalogue with the photographic-based galaxy catalogue used for the input to the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) from the APM, to the completeness of the GRS/APM catalogue, . This comparison confirms the reliability of the photometry across our mosaics and between the clusters in our survey. This comparison also provides useful information concerning the properties of the GRS/APM. The stellar contamination in the GRS/APM galaxy catalogue is confirmed as around per cent, as originally estimated. However, using the superior sensitivity and spatial resolution in the LARCS survey evidence is found for four distinct populations of galaxies that are systematically omitted from the GRS/APM catalogue. The characteristics of the 'missing' galaxy populations are described, reasons for their absence examined and the impact they will have on the conclusions drawn from the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey are discussed. 相似文献
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S. C. Chapman Ian Smail R. J. Ivison A. W. Blain 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,335(1):L17-L21
Spectroscopic surveys of submillimetre(submm)-selected sources have uncovered optically bright galaxies at z ≲ 1 close to the positions of several submm sources. Naive statistical analyses suggest that these galaxies are associated with the submm emission. However, in some cases, it is difficult to understand this association given the relatively modest redshifts and unprepossessing spectral characteristics of the galaxies. These are in stark contrast to those expected from the massive dust-enshrouded starbursts and AGN thought to power the bulk of the bright submm population. We present new observations of optically bright counterparts to two luminous submm sources, along with a compilation of previously proposed optically bright counterparts with z ≲ 1 . We suggest that the majority of these associations between bright galaxies and submm sources may be as a result of the action of the foreground galaxies as gravitational lenses on the much fainter and more distant submm sources. We discuss the implications of this conclusion for our understanding of the SCUBA population. 相似文献