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The reliability of the recently published reconstructions of the surface air temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 yr is discussed. For this purpose, the power spectra of the two best known reconstructions (Mann et al.[10–12] and Moberg et al. [13]) are calculated and compared to the spectra of the 150-yr temperature series based on instrumental observations and simulated 1000-yr series. It is found that the Mann et al. reconstruction drastically underestimates low-frequency temperature variations, whereas the Moberg et al. reconstruction reproduces them much better, although with a certain underestimation rather than overestimation, as Mann et al. have recently argued. 相似文献
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Quantitative analysis of the tree-ring width record features essential for paleoclimatic reconstructions 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Datsenko N. M. Ivashchenko N. N. Sonechkin D. M. Yang B. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2010,434(2):1410-1413
Tree-ring width records provide a primary data source for millennial paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, a problem exists
connected with taking into consideration the complex age-dependence within these records. Analyzing a set of very long-lived
trees of Sabina przewalskii Kom. from the Dulan area of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we found for the first time that the annual basal-radius increment
is larger for the outermost rings in comparison with the inner rings, especially for very long-living trees. Neglecting this
circumstance when the so-called regional curve standardization is used can distort paleoclimatic reconstructions. 相似文献
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广州气温与厄尔尼诺的多尺度相互联系 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过对广州气温距平和Ｎｉｎｏ ３、Ｎｉｎｏ １＋２区ＳＳＴＡ序列做小波变换,研究了广州气温变化与ＥＮＳＯ振荡过程之间的多尺度联系,发现它们都存在着强的十年际振荡。年际尺度的振荡为正相关,十年际风度为负相关。由于ＳＳＴＡ的十年际变率是由强厄尔尼诺事件的韵律产生的,因此;广州气温对强烈厄尔尼诺的响应性质上不同于对普通厄尔尼诺的响应． 相似文献
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过去千年气候变化重建研究新进展 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
20世纪气候变暖的归因是当前全球共同关注的焦点之一,而解决这一问题的途径之一是对过去千年的气候变化历史进行精确重建。简要回顾过去千年气候重建的研究进展,重点关注古气候空间重建方法方面的最新进展,并将目前古气候空间重建方法划分为3类,即综合-比例法（Composite Plus Scale, CPS）、气候场重建法（Climate Field Reconstruction, CFR）以及状态空间模型（State-space Model）法,同时指出了这些方法的优缺点以及可能的解决途径。 相似文献
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Bao Yang Dmitry M. Sonechkin Nina M. Datsenko Nadezda N. Ivashchenko Jingjing Liu Chun Qin 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):489-497
Based on a set of very long-living (2,000?years) Qilian junipers (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) from the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau (the region of Dulan), we carefully consider the regional curve standardization (RCS) technique. For this goal, we correlate deviations of individual tree-ring width records from their regional mean age-dependent curve (RC). It turns out that these correlations keep their positivity for almost all shifts between ages compared (up to 500?years and even more) evidencing each Dulan juniper to be a unique ??thermometer??. Just the unification of these ??thermometers?? in the form RC creates a spurious positive trend in the Dulan chronology. We modify the RCS technique to closer attach RC to these ??thermometers?? in order to construct a new chronology in which the trend is absent. 相似文献
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The study analyzes the recently summarized data on surface air temperature in the east of North America, in Western and Eastern Europe, and in India before and after the Tambora volcano eruption occurred in Indonesia in 1815. The well-known fact is proved that no cooling occurred after the Tambora eruption in the east of Europe and in India. It is found that the insignificant (at the decadal timescale) cooling was observed in all analyzed regions: it started earlier than the Tambora eruption and than the stronger eruption of another volcano in 1809. The paper demonstrates that it is impossible to reveal cause-effect relations between the general cooling and the eruption of the above volcanoes based on the available data on surface air temperature. Cold snaps that follow the later volcanic eruptions were identified by meteorologists using the data of the whole network of meteorological observations established in the second half of the 19th century. However, these cold snaps cannot be detected using data on surface air temperature only. 相似文献
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Oceanology - It is generally accepted that changes in the heat content of the North Atlantic can be a source of some surprises in the present-day climate evolution, especially in Europe. The RAPID... 相似文献