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1.
ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.  相似文献   
2.
Amphibolites associated with alpine peridotites in the Central Ophiolite zone in Yugoslavia have K-Ar ages of 160–170 m.y. These amphibolites and associated peridotites underwent deep-seated metamorphism prior to tectonic emplacement into the sedimentary-volcanic assemblage of the Dinarides. The alpine peridotites and associated local rocks of the ophiolite suite are interpreted as Jurassic oceanic crust and upper mantle.  相似文献   
3.
Ever since the disastrous floods of 1998, the Chinese government has used the Natural Forest Protection and Sloping Land Conversion Programs to promote afforestation and reforestation as means to reduce runoff, control erosion, and stabilize local livelihoods. These two ambitious programs have been reported as large-scale successes, contributing to an overall increase in China’s forest cover and to the stated goals of environmental stabilization. A small-scale field study at the project level of the implementation of these two programs in Baiwu Township, Yanyuan County, Sichuan, casts doubt upon the accuracy and reliability of these claims of success; ground observations revealed utter failure in some sites and only marginal success in others. Reasons for this discrepancy are posited as involving ecological, economic, and bureaucratic factors. Further research is suggested to determine whether these discrepancies are merely local aberrations or represent larger-scale failures in reforestation programs.  相似文献   
4.
The loess sequence preserved in the Požarevac brickyard in north-eastern Serbia comprises eight loess units separated by seven paleosols. Geochronological investigation using amino acid racemization and luminescence dating support stratigraphic correlations of loess units L3, S2LL1 and L1 at the Požarevac section with loess of glacial cycles E [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10], D (MIS 9–8), C (MIS 7–6) and B (MIS 5–2) across central Europe. Correlation with the marine oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and associated paleoclimatic inferences are further supported by magnetic susceptibility, particle size and carbonate content measured in Požarevac sediments. Malacological investigations at the Požarevac section reveal the continuous presence of the Chondrula tridens and Helicopsis striata faunal assemblages throughout the last 350 ka. The loess malacological fauna, which is characterized by the complete absence of cold-resistant and cold-preferring species, suggests a stable, dry and relatively warm glacial and interglacial climate, compared with other central European loess localities. Together these data suggest that the south-eastern part of the Carpathian (Pannonian, Middle Danube) Basin was a refugium for warm-preferring and xerophilous land-snails during the generally unfavorable glacial climates of the late Middle and Late Pleistocene.  相似文献   
5.
In the southwestern Carpathians of SW Romania and E Serbia calc-alkaline Upper Cretaceous-Paleogene subduction related magmatic rocks occur in two main zones. The Ridanj-Krepoljin belt (E Serbia) represents the southern part of the western zone. In this belt Early Maastrichtian dacites and subordinate andesites occur, but there are indications of an unexposed granodioritic (?) magmatism about 60 Ma old. Pb-Zn-Ag and only subordinate Cu mineralization is associated with this igneous activity. The Timok magmatic complex (E Serbia) composed of Upper Cretaceous (-Paleocene?) andesites and analogue intrusives represents the eastern zone south of the Danube. Associated with this magmatism are Cu (+Au) and very subordinate Zn (±Pb) mineralization. To the north (SW Romania) in both zones mainly intrusive bodies (diorites, quartz diorites, granodiorites, monzonites) of Campanian-Paleocene age are exposed. Porphyry copper (+Mo) and in north Pb-Zn (±Cu) mineralization are related to those intrusives. The petrological and geochemical features of all these calc-alkaline rocks are very similar. It appears, however, that the associated polymetallic and the copper mineralization are both spatially and vertically separated.  相似文献   
6.
Rivers on territory of the Republic of Serbia can be separated to three sea drainage basins: Black, Adriatic and Aegean. Majority of rivers belong to the Black Sea drainage basin. The Danube is the most important river in Serbia and one of the most important rivers of Europe. All rivers investigated in this paper represent direct or indirect tributaries of the Danube River and as that, they are belonging to the Black Sea drainage basin. In this study, the water quality status and the spatial and temporal trends of seven major rivers in Serbia were assessed through the application of ten parameters of Water Quality Index. Ten year (2004–2013) public database of environmental data was used. Into considerations were taken differences between every river individually and difference between sample positions on every single river. Based on the chemical parameters of water quality, it can be seen that the biggest rivers in Serbia show different values of WQ parameters. The highest WQ value is measured on the Drina River, while the lowest value is measured on the Ju?na Morava and the Tisza River. Analyses of parameters per period of year show that there is a statistically significant difference between values during warm and cold periods.  相似文献   
7.
The paper presents authors’ data on mineral assemblages in rocks of olistostrome melange in the northern part of the Vardar zone in the Fruška Gora Range, Serbia, Balkan Peninsula, which were affected by metamorphism to low grade of the glaucophane-schist facies in relation to Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous subduction. The olistostrome is dominated by phengite-chlorite-quartz metasandstones and glaucophane-bearing metabasalts, with the latter rocks containing an equilibrium association of zonal riebeckite-glaucophane amphibole, chlorite, pumpellyite, actinolite, and epidote. The Na-amphibole is commonly zonal and has riebeckite cores and glaucophane outermost zones. The metasandstones contain phengite rich in Si (3.45 f.u.) and Mg (0.40 f.u.), which can be formed only under high pressures. The composition of the phengite and the position of glaucophane-pumpellyite-bearing mineral assemblages from the Fruška Gora Range in the P-T grid for low-temperature metabasites indicate that the culmination of subduction-related metamorphism occurred at T − 340–350°C, P = 4−8 kbar, which corresponded to a depth of 14–29 km. Comparison with certain typical glaucophane-bearing complexes shows that the Rbk → Gln zoning of the Na-amphiboles develops in the course of prograde metamorphism. The zoning of Na and Na-Ca amphiboles of the riebeckite-glaucophane-winchite-barroisite series is proved to be, along with zonal garnet crystals, a sensitive indicator of prograde high-pressure transformations in metabasites in the low-temperature region and can be utilized to distinguish between metamorphic zones and subfacies in glaucophane schist complexes.  相似文献   
8.
Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.  相似文献   
9.
The main objective of this study is to determine and analyze cold and warm air temperature spells in the last 6 years (2007–2012) and reveal their impact on electrical energy consumption in a small-sized city such as Sombor (Serbia) with less than 50,000 inhabitants. Hourly air temperature values and electrical energy consumption data have been used as database for all methods. Warm and cold temperature spells (during heat and cold waves) have had the increasing tendencies in the last 6 years and they reflect on additional electrical energy consumption. Detailed analysis showed that higher energy demands occur during workdays and daytime period. Monitoring of the amount of consumed energy showed a clear relationship during the winter cold temperature spells, when electrical energy demand was higher than 0.3 MW. In summer period, the relationship was weaker and consumption was higher than 0.15 MW only when temperature exceeded 30 °C. A small number of air condition devices in houses and companies and mainly one-store buildings with thick walls, which make a good insulation from the outside air temperatures, are probably the main reasons for the above-mentioned results in summer. This paper introduces a new method to resolve the problem of short-term load forecasting, based on the support vector machines (SVM) technology and particle swarm optimization that has been used to optimize the SVM parameters. Similar-day-based forecast has shown that similar days for training should be filtered also using classifier of temperature period (cooling degree-days or heating degree-days in a row). Forecasting error is smaller compared to solutions where similar days are found only on season and temperature.  相似文献   
10.
This paper examines human impact on stands and individual trees of Pinus yunnanensis growing near the small mountain villages of Pianshui and Yangjuan in southwestern Sichuan Province,China.In an effort to assess whether use of these forests was sustainable,we examined the effects of human use in two ways.First,we directly measured the effect of cutting branches,for fuel and fodder,on tree growth.We hypothesized that branch cutting would negatively impact tree growth.We established 12 plots on four hills and compared 14 pairs of trees,one tree in each pair with an apparently full crown and the other with a considerable portion of the crown removed.Second,we assessed stand and tree properties over a 500 m elevation gradient above the villages where we hypothesized that as elevation increases,stand and tree properties should show fewer human impacts.Although extensive branch cutting reduced the live crown,tree height and diameter,compensatory processes likely enabled trees to recover and to add basal area increments(BAIs) similar to those added by trees with full crowns.Trees and stands close to villages showed less growth and lower basal areas,respectively,than stands and trees at intermediate or distant elevations from villages.Areas relatively close to the villages showed considerable effects of human-related disturbances such as branch cutting,grazing,tree and shrub removal,losses of litter,and human and animal trails.Such areas had increased soil erosion and often loss of the ‘A’ horizon.Stands close to villages had younger trees,lower stand basal areas,smaller basal area increments,and more stumps.Our results suggest an increasingly vulnerable interface between occupants of these two villages and their surrounding forests.  相似文献   
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