Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Rehan Sadiq  Tahir Husain  Neil Bose 《Ocean Engineering》2004,31(16):1929-1953

Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario).  相似文献   

Corruption in cyclone preparedness and relief efforts in coastal Bangladesh: Lessons for climate adaptation?     

Tanvir Mahmud  Martin Prowse 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):933-943

This article seeks to draw possible lessons for adaptation programmes in Bangladesh by examining whether cyclone preparedness and relief interventions are subject to corrupt practices. Based on a random sample survey of 278 households, three focus-group discussions and seven key-informant interviews, the article investigates the nature and extent of corruption in pre- and post-disaster interventions in Khulna before and after Cyclone Aila in May 2009. Ninety nine percent of households reported losses from corrupt practices. Post-disaster interventions (such as food aid and public works schemes) suffered from greater levels, and worse types, of corruption than pre-disaster interventions (such as cyclone warning systems and disaster-preparedness training). Using an asset index created using principal component analysis, the article assesses how corruption affected wealth quartiles. Ultra-poor households were affected more by corruption in pre-disaster interventions, the wealthiest quartile more in certain post-disaster interventions, in particular public works and non-governmental interventions. These findings may hold lessons for attempts to increase resilience as current adaptation measures mirror some cyclone preparedness and relief efforts.  相似文献   

Downscaling and projection of precipitation from general circulation model predictors in an equatorial climate region by the automated regression-based statistical method   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mohd Zaki M. Amin  Tanvir Islam  Asnor M. Ishak 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):347-364

The authors have applied an automated regression-based statistical method, namely, the automated statistical downscaling (ASD) model, to downscale and project the precipitation climatology in an equatorial climate region (Peninsular Malaysia). Five precipitation indices are, principally, downscaled and projected: mean monthly values of precipitation (Mean), standard deviation (STD), 90th percentile of rain day amount, percentage of wet days (Wet-day), and maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD). The predictors, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products, are taken from the daily series reanalysis data, while the global climate model (GCM) outputs are from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) in A2/B2 emission scenarios and Third-Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) in A2 emission scenario. Meanwhile, the predictand data are taken from the arithmetically averaged rain gauge information and used as a baseline data for the evaluation. The results reveal, from the calibration and validation periods spanning a period of 40 years (1961–2000), the ASD model is capable to downscale the precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Overall, during the validation period, the model simulations with the NCEP predictors produce mean monthly precipitation of 6.18–6.20 mm/day (root mean squared error 0.78 and 0.82 mm/day), interpolated, respectively, on HadCM3 and CGCM3 grids, in contrast to 6.00 mm/day as observation. Nevertheless, the model suffers to perform reasonably well at the time of extreme precipitation and summer time, more specifically to generate the CDD and STD indices. The future projections of precipitation (2011–2099) exhibit that there would be an increase in the precipitation amount and frequency in most of the months. Taking the 1961–2000 timeline as the base period, overall, the annual mean precipitation would indicate a surplus projection by nearly 14~18 % under both GCM output cases (HadCM3 A2/B2 scenarios and CGCM3 A2 scenario). According to the model simulation, the September–November periods might be the more significant months projecting the increment of the precipitation amount around over 50 %, while the precipitation deficit would be seen in March–May periods.  相似文献   

The submillimetre properties of gamma-ray burst host galaxies     

N. R. Tanvir  V. E. Barnard  A. W. Blain  A. S. Fruchter  C. Kouveliotou  P. Natarajan  E. Ramirez-Ruiz  E. Rol  I. A. Smith  R. P. J. Tilanus  R. A. M. J. Wijers 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(3):1073-1080

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Wisp motions in the Crab nebula     

N.R. Tanvir  R.C. Thomson  E.G. Tsikarishvili 《New Astronomy》1997,1(4):311-319

We present the results of a CCD monitoring campaign of the continuum emission from the central region of the Crab nebula, amounting to 17 epochs spread over 3.5 years. The data provide clear evidence that the brightest wisps move outward from the pulsar at mildly relativistic velocities. This motion, combined with the shape of the wisps, supports the idea that they arise at a standing shock in an equatorial wind. The deprojected velocity of the wisps in the equatorial plane is c/3. We see only small changes in the so-called ‘thin wisps’ which leads us to suggest that these wisps may be the result of a back-flow from the shock in a toroidal cavity around the pulsar.  相似文献   

Distances to Cepheid open clusters via optical and K-band imaging     

Fiona Hoyle  Tom Shanks  N. R. Tanvir 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(1):269-291

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The unusual X-ray light curve of GRB 080307: the onset of the afterglow?     

K. L. Page  R. Willingale  P. T. O'Brien  N. R. Tanvir  J. P. Osborne  B. Zhang  S. T. Holland  A. J. Levan  A. Melandri  R. L. C. Starling  D. Bersier  D. N. Burrows  J. E. Geach  P. Maxted 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):328-334

Swift -detected GRB 080307 showed an unusual smooth rise in its X-ray light curve around 100 s after the burst, at the start of which the emission briefly softened. This 'hump' has a longer duration than is normal for a flare at early times and does not demonstrate a typical flare profile. Using a two-component power-law-to-exponential model, the rising emission can be modelled as the onset of the afterglow, something which is very rarely seen in Swift -X-ray light curves. We cannot, however, rule out that the hump is a particularly slow early-time flare, or that it is caused by upscattered reverse shock electrons.  相似文献   

Short gamma-ray bursts from SGR giant flares and neutron star mergers: two populations are better than one     

Robert Chapman  Robert S. Priddey  Nial R. Tanvir 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(3):1515-1522

There is increasing evidence of a local population of short duration gamma-ray bursts (sGRB), but it remains to be seen whether this is a separate population to higher redshift bursts. Here we choose plausible luminosity functions (LFs) for both neutron star binary mergers and giant flares from soft gamma repeaters (SGR), and combined with theoretical and observed Galactic intrinsic rates we examine whether a single progenitor model can reproduce both the overall Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) sGRB number counts and a local population, or whether a dual progenitor population is required. Though there are large uncertainties in the intrinsic rates, we find that at least a bimodal LF consisting of lower and higher luminosity populations is required to reproduce both the overall BATSE sGRB number counts and a local burst distribution. Furthermore, the best-fitting parameters of the lower luminosity population agree well with the known properties of SGR giant flares, and the predicted numbers are sufficient to account for previous estimates of the local sGRB population.  相似文献   

Globular clusters in the outer halo of M31: the survey     

A. P. Huxor  N. R. Tanvir  A. M. N. Ferguson  M. J. Irwin  R. Ibata  T. Bridges  G. F. Lewis 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,385(4):1989-1997

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The extreme, red afterglow of GRB 060923A: distance or dust?     

N. R. Tanvir  A. J. Levan  E. Rol  R. L. C. Starling  J. Gorosabel  R. S. Priddey  D. Malesani  P. Jakobsson  P. T. O'Brien  A. O. Jaunsen  J. Hjorth  J. P. U. Fynbo  A. Melandri  A. Gomboc  B. Milvang-Jensen  A. S. Fruchter  M. Jarvis  C. A. C. Fernandes  T. Wold 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(4):1743-1750

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are powerful probes of the early Universe, but locating and identifying very distant GRBs remain challenging. We report here the discovery of the K -band afterglow of Swift GRB 060923A, imaged within the first hour post-burst, and the faintest so far found. It was not detected in any bluer bands to deep limits, making it a candidate very high- z burst  ( z ≳ 11)  . However, our later-time optical imaging and spectroscopy reveal a faint galaxy coincident with the GRB position which, if it is the host, implies a more moderate redshift (most likely   z ≲ 2.8  ) and therefore that dust is the likely cause of the very red-afterglow colour. This being the case, it is one of the few instances so far found of a GRB afterglow with high-dust extinction.  相似文献