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1.
In this discussion, the authors will point out that even if Bomers et al. (Nat Hazards 97:309–334, 2019) tackle an important problem, ignoring the uncertainties related to the roughness coefficients, Manning coefficients, the downstream boundary and most importantly the errors of the chosen software, HEC-RAS, are serious shortcomings of their study.
相似文献2.
Due to their complex nature, river models require extensive calibration in order to achieve reliable model predictions. Manually
fitting the numerous parameters included in this procedure can be a laborious and repetitive process. This paper presents
a new instrument, developed specifically for the automatic calibration of river models based on the software MHYSER. The instrument
is completely autonomous and returns the model with the parameter values giving rise to the smallest difference between the
model-generated observations and the measured observations. It utilises the software PEST to fit continuous calibration parameters
and exceeds the program’s capabilities in order to also fit discontinuous calibration parameters. Testing of the instrument
is accomplished using three models, one of which was developed during a study on the dynamics of sediments on the Romaine
River, situated in the Eastern region of the Province of Quebec. 相似文献
3.
The standard procedure in Quebec, Canada, for evaluating the failure of an embankment dam, per the Loi sur la sécurité des barrages, specifies a 30-min-long failure scenario with a breach width equal to four times the maximal height of the dam. We demonstrate a new method for evaluating the flood overtopping failure scenario for embankment dams with concrete upstream slope protection, using Toulnustouc dam for example computations. Our new methodology computes safety factors for a range of potential failure mechanisms taking into account geotechnical, hydraulic, and structural factors. We compile the results of our investigations of the various dam failure mechanisms and compare the corresponding dam failure hydrographs to the current hydrograph specified in the standard analysis procedures. Our investigations tend to invalidate the current standard procedures for evaluating the failure of rock-fill dams with concrete upstream faces, by indicating that the current standard procedures underestimate the peak failure discharge and overestimate the time to the peak discharge. 相似文献
4.
Semi-two-dimensional numerical model for river morphological change prediction: theory and concepts 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Tew-Fik Mahdi 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(3):565-603
This paper presents a new numerical model for river morphological predictions. This tool predicts vertical and lateral cross-section
variations for alluvial rivers, which is an important task in predicting the associated hazard zone after a flood event. The
Model for the HYdraulics of SEdiments in Rivers, version 1.0 (MHYSER 1.0) is a semi-two-dimensional model using the stream
tubes concept to achieve lateral variations of velocity, flow stresses, and sediment transport rates. Each stream tube has
the same conveyance as the other ones. In MHYSER 1.0, the uncoupled approach is used to solve the set of conservation equations.
After the backwater calculation, the river is divided into a finite number of stream tubes of equal conveyances. The sediment
routing and bed adjustments calculations are accomplished separately along each stream tube taking into account lateral mass
exchanges. The determination of depth and width adjustments is based on the minimum stream power theory. Moreover, MHYSER
1.0 offers two options to treat riverbank stability. The first one is based on the angle of repose. The bank slope should
not be allowed to increase beyond a certain critical value supplied to MHYSER 1.0. The second one is based on the modified
Bishop’s method to determine a safety factor evaluating the potential risk of a landslide along the river bank. 相似文献
5.
This article presents a comparison between two two-dimensional finite volume flood propagation models: SRH-2D and Hydro_AS-2D. The models are compared using an experimental dam-break test case provided by Soares-Frazão (J Hydraul Res, 2007. doi: 10.1080/00221686.2007.9521829). Four progressively refined meshes are used, and both models react adequately to mesh and time step refinement. Hydro_AS-2D shows some unphysical oscillations with the finest mesh and a certain loss of accuracy. For that test case, Hydro_AS-2D is more accurate for all meshes and generally faster than SRH-2D. Hydro_AS-2D reacts well to automatic calibration with PEST, whereas SRH-2D has some difficulties in retrieving the suggested Manning’s roughness coefficient. 相似文献
6.
7.
Natural Hazards - Cyclone tracks over the Great Lakes of North America shift, both East–West as well as North–South. The reasons for the shifts are various small-scale as well as... 相似文献
8.
River embankments failure due to severe flooding is an extremely complex phenomena triggering permanent or temporary modification
to the river morphology, river flow and sediment movement. Reliable and automatic prediction of these movements is crucial
to properly identify the protective measures for residents living within the inundation flood zones. In this regard, BISHOP,
a decision tool to automatically predict, at multiple river cross-sections, the slope failure circle with the minimum safety
factor has been developed. In this paper, the computer tool BISHOP, named after the simplified Bishop method, is presented.
Its applications have proven to be highly efficient in real case studies, where the stability of multiple slope profiles,
at different river cross-sections, must be analyzed to establish spatial and temporal evolution of the river banks failures.
The integration of the proposed methodology within a comprehensive flow hydrodynamic, sediment transport and landslide calculation
has particularly enhanced the evaluation of the flood-risk zone during major flooding. Typical results demonstrating the effectiveness
of the developed methodology are demonstrated during the analysis of the evolution of a river reach downstream of a dam a
dam break scenario. 相似文献
9.
A recently developed Bayesian interpolation method (BI) and its application to safety assessment of a flood defense structure
are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo method (BMC) that has been proposed in (Rajabalinejad
2009) to develop a weighted logical dependence between neighboring points. The concept of global uncertainty is adequately explained
and different uncertainty association models (UAMs) are presented for linking the local and global uncertainty. Based on the
global uncertainty, a simplified approach is introduced. By applying the global uncertainty, we apply the Guassian error estimation
to general models and the Generalized Beta (GB) distribution to monotonic models. Our main objective in this research is to
simplify the newly developed BMC method and demonstrate that it can dramatically improve the simulation efficiency by using
prior information from outcomes of the preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for the BI method
geared to multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model, and apply the coupled models
to the reliability assessment of a flood defense for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. 相似文献
10.
Natural Hazards - In 2008, Wenchuan earthquake shook Sichuan Province in China. The questions of how to value the economic loss that would result if a catastrophe were to occur in Capital Beijing... 相似文献