Assessing the Social and Economic Indicators of Seismic Risk Using the Town of Angarsk as an Example     

Frolova  N. I.  Malaeva  N. S.  Ruzhich  V. V.  Berzhinskaya  L. P.  Levina  E. A.  Suchshev  S. P.  Larionov  V. I.  Ugarov  A. N. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2022,58(8):881-907

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - This article solves the task of selecting and describing methods for assessing the social and economic indicators of seismic risk using the example of...  相似文献   

Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates     

N. I. Frolova  V. I. Larionov  J. Bonnin  S. P. Sushchev  A. N. Ugarov  M. A. Kozlov 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):63-80

Timely and adequate action just after a strong earthquake can result in significant benefits in saving lives, as well as other benefits. For these cases, information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough and rapid information may be provided by, first of all, “global systems” (i.e., systems that are operated wherever the earthquake has occurred on the globe), in emergency mode. This paper gives a brief history of existing “global systems” and analyzes the factors which influence the reliability of earthquake impact simulation in near real time.  相似文献   

Seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels     

N. I. Frolova  V. I. Larionov  J. Bonnin  S. P. Sushchev  A. N. Ugarov  M. A. Kozlov 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):43-62

Earthquakes incur the greatest damage compared with all the other natural deleterious occurrences; when occurring in industrialized and densely populated regions, they can prove devastating. In the Russian Federation, we have more than 20 million people living in regions of moderate and high seismicity. The areas that are hit by earthquakes, with events of intensity VII (MMSK-86 scale) or greater occurring, make up approximately 20% of Russia’s area. The present paper addresses the methodological procedures of risk assessment and databases used for risk computations at different levels. The examples of seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels: country, region and urban, are given. Special attention is paid to information and web technologies used for verification data on built environment inventory and vulnerability.  相似文献   

Seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels     

Frolova  N. I.  Larionov  V. I.  Bonnin  J.  Sushchev  S. P.  Ugarov  A. N.  Kozlov  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):43-67

In 2012, the damage costs of floods in Russia amounted to about €300m, and these floods have caused nearly 200 fatalities (Kotlyakov et al. in Reg Res Rus 3(1):32–39, 2013). Risk assessment is one of the most pressing scientific topics in Russia, but most of the works are devoted to natural hazards assessment. The purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of hazardous hydrological phenomena on society. The field research was conducted in the Slavyansk municipal district in the Krasnodar region (the south-western part of Russia), which is a highly populated coastal territory with a high frequency of hazardous hydrological events. Modified methods of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Affairs for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) were used for potential economic damage calculation. The paper did not only focus on direct, tangible risks, but also included social risk (i.e. risk to life and health). Social vulnerability has been calculated directly as a percentage of vulnerable people, estimated in opinion polls, while in many recent papers the social vulnerability index was calculated as a combination of several statistical indicators. The resulting percentage of vulnerable people was converted to numbers of potential victims. Finally, the social risk was expressed by financial indicators in terms of the cost of the value of statistical life lost (Mrozek and Taylor in J Policy Anal Manag 21(2):253–270, 2002; Viscusi and Aldy in J Risk Uncertain 27(1):5–76, 2003). Social risk can be underestimated in comparison with economic risk because of a low “value of life” in Russia (no life insurance, neglecting of basic safety rules, etc.) (Guriev in Myths of economics, Alpina Business Books, Moscow, 2009).  相似文献   

Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Frolova  N. I.  Larionov  V. I.  Bonnin  J.  Sushchev  S. P.  Ugarov  A. N.  Kozlov  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):63-76

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.  相似文献   

Seismic risk assessment for the Greater Sochi area     

V. I. Osipov  V. I. Larionov  S. P. Sushchev  N. I. Frolova  A. N. Ugarov  S. V. Kozharinov  T. V. Barskaya 《Water Resources》2016,43(7):982-997

Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8–9 and 9–10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013.  相似文献