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Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Gerardo Benito Michel Lang Mariano Barriendos M. Carmen Llasat Felix Francés Taha Ouarda Varyl Thorndycraft Yehouda Enzel Andras Bardossy Denis Coeur Bernard Bobée 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(3):623-643
The catastrophic floods recently occurring in Europe warn of the critical need forhydrologic data on floods over long-time scales. Palaeoflood techniques provideinformation on hydrologic variability and extreme floods over long-time intervals(100 to 10,000 yr) and may be used in combination with historical flood data (last1,000 yr) and the gauge record (last 30–50 yr). In this paper, advantages anduncertainties related to the reconstruction of palaeofloods in different geomorphologicalsettings and historical floods using different documentary sources are described.Systematic and non-systematic data can be combined in the flood frequency analysisusing different methods for the adjustment of distribution functions. Technical toolsintegrating multidisciplinary approaches (geologic, historical, hydraulic and statistical)on extreme flood risk assessment are discussed. A discussion on the potential theoreticalbases for solving the problem of dealing with non-systematic and non-stationary data ispresented. This methodology is being developed using new methodological approachesapplied to European countries as a part of a European Commission funded project (SPHERE). 相似文献
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The effects of the topographic data source and resolution on the hydraulic modelling of floods were analysed. Seven digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated from three different altimetric sources: a global positioning system (GPS) survey and bathymetry; high‐resolution laser altimetry data LiDAR (light detection and ranging); and vectorial cartography (1:5000). Hydraulic results were obtained, using the HEC‐RAS one‐dimensional model, for all seven DTMs. The importance of the DTM's accuracy on the hydraulic modelling results was analysed within three different hydraulic contexts: (1) the discharge and water surface elevation results from the hydraulic model; (2) the delineation of the flooded area; and (3) the relative sensitivity of the hydraulic model to changes in the Manning's n roughness coefficient. The contour‐based DTM was the least accurate with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4·5 m in the determination of the water level and a variation of up to 50 per cent in the estimation of the inundated area of the floodplain. The GPS‐based DTM produced more realistic water surface elevation results and variations of up to 8 per cent in terms of the flooded area. The laser‐based model's RMSE for water level was 0·3 m, with the flooded area varying by less than 1 per cent. The LiDAR data also showed the greatest sensitivity to changes in the Manning's roughness coefficient. An analysis of the effect of mesh resolution indicated an influence on the delineation of the flooded area with variations of up to 7·3 per cent. In addition to determining the accuracy of the hydraulic modelling results produced from each DTM, an analysis of the time–cost ratio of each topographic data source illustrates that airborne laser scanning is a cost‐effective means of developing a DTM of sufficient accuracy, especially over large areas. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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G. Benito V.R. Thorndycraft M.T. Rico Y. Snchez-Moya A. Sopea B.A. Botero M.J. Machado M. Davis A. Prez-Gonzlez 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(3):471-482
A long-term flood record from the Buffels River, the largest ephemeral river of NW South Africa (9250 km2), was reconstructed based on interpretation of palaeoflood, documentary and instrumental rainfall data. Palaeoflood data were obtained at three study reaches, with preserved sedimentary evidence indicating at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr. Geochronological control for the palaeoflood record was provided by radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Annual resolution was obtained since the 19th century using the overlapping documentary and instrumental records. Large floods coincided in the past within three main hydroclimatic settings: (1) periods of regular large flood occurrence (1 large flood/~30 yr) under wetter and cooler prevailing climatic conditions (AD 1600–1800), (2) decreasing occurrence of large floods (1 large flood/~100 yr) during warmer conditions (e.g., AD 1425–1600 and after 1925), and (3) periods of high frequency of large floods (~ 4–5 large floods in 20–30 yr) coinciding with wetter conditions of decadal duration, namely at AD 1390–1425, 1800–1825 and 1915–1925. These decadal-scale periods of the highest flood frequency seem to correspond in time with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, as inferred when comparing their onset and distribution with temperature proxies in southern Africa. 相似文献
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Antony G. Brown Stephen Tooth Richard C. Chiverrell James Rose David S. G. Thomas John Wainwright Joanna E. Bullard Varyl R. Thorndycraft Rolf Aalto Peter Downs 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(4):431-434
The ‘Anthropocene’, as used to describe the interval of recent Earth history during which humans have had an ‘overwhelming’ effect on the Earth system, is now being formally considered as a possible new geological Epoch. Such a new geological time interval (possibly equivalent to the Pleistocene Epoch) requires both theoretical justification as well as empirical evidence preserved within the geological record. Since the geological record is driven by geomorphological processes that produce terrestrial and near‐shore stratigraphy, geomorphology has to be an integral part of this consideration. For this reason, the British Society for Geomorphology (BSG) has inaugurated a Fixed Term Working Group to consider this issue and advise the Society on how geomorphologists can engage with debates over the Anthropocene. This ESEX Commentary sets out the initial case for the formalisation of the Anthropocene and a priori considerations in the hope that it will stimulate debate amongst, and involvement by, the geomorphological community in what is a crucial issue for the discipline. The Working Group is now considering the practical aspects of such a formalization including the relative magnitude problem, the boundary problem and the spatial diachrony of ‘anthropogenic geomorphology’. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The role of tin mining in the society of prehistoric Dartmoor and its impact on the local landscape have long been discussed despite equivocal evidence for prehistoric mine sites. A fluvial geomorphological approach, using floodplain stratigraphy, combined with sediment geochemistry and mineralogy, was employed to identify prehistoric tin mining at the catchment scale. Waste sediment, released during hydraulic mining of alluvial tin deposits, caused downstream floodplain aggradation of sands with a diagnostic signature of elevated Sn concentration within the silt fraction. At a palaeochannel site in the Erme Valley, sediment aggradation buried datable peat deposits. A period of aggradation postdating cal. A.D. 1288–1389 is consistent with the 13th century peak in tin production identified in the documentary record. An earlier phase of aggradation, however, occurred between the 4th and 7th centuries A.D., providing evidence of late Roman or early Post Roman tin mining activity on Dartmoor. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 相似文献
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High resolution lake sediment record reveals self‐organized criticality in erosion processes regulated by internal feedbacks 
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下载免费PDF全文 Reconstruction of high‐frequency erosion variability beyond the instrumental record requires well‐dated, high‐resolution proxies from sediment archives. We used computed tomography (CT) scans of finely laminated silt layers from a lake‐sediment record in southwest Oregon to quantify the magnitude of natural landscape erosion events over the last 2000 years in order to compare with palaeorecords of climate, forest fire, and seismic triggers. Sedimentation rates were modeled from an age–depth relationship fit through five 14C dates and the 1964 AD 137Cs peak in which deposition time (yr mm‐1) varied inversely with the proportion of silt sediment measured by the CT profile. This model resulted in pseudo‐annual estimates of silt deposition for the last 2000 years. Silt accumulation during the past 80 years was strongly correlated with river‐discharge at annual and decadal scales, revealing that erosion was highly responsive to precipitation during the logging era (1930–present). Before logging the frequency–magnitude relationship displayed a power‐law distribution that is characteristic of complex feedbacks and self‐regulating mechanisms. The 100‐year and 10‐year erosion magnitude estimated in a 99‐year moving window varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. Decadal erosion magnitude was only moderately positively correlated with a summer temperature reconstruction over the period 900–1900 AD. Magnitude of the seven largest events was similar to the cumulative silt accumulation anomaly, suggesting these events ‘returned the system’ to the long‐term mean rate. Instead, the occurrence of most erosion events was related to fire (silt layers preceded by high charcoal concentration) and earthquakes (the seven thickest layers often match paleo‐earthquake dates). Our data show how internal (i.e. sediment production) and external processes (natural fires or more stochastic events such as earthquakes) co‐determine erosion regimes at millennial time scales, and the extent to which such processes can be offset by recent large‐scale deforestation by logging. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Digital landscapes of deglaciation: identifying Late Quaternary glacial lake outburst floods using LiDAR 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 High resolution DEMs obtained from LiDAR topographic data have led to improved landform inventories (e.g. landslides and fault scarps) and understanding of geomorphic event frequency. Here we use airborne LiDAR mapping to investigate meltwater pathways associated with the Tweed Valley palaeo ice‐stream (UK). In particular we focus on a gorge downstream of Palaeolake Milfield, previously mapped as a sub‐glacial meltwater channel, where the identification of abandoned headcut channels, run‐up bars, rock‐cut terrace surfaces and eddy flow features attest to formation by a sub‐aerial glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) caused by breaching of a sediment dam, likely an esker ridge. Mapping of these landforms combined with analysis of the gorge rim elevations and cross‐section variability revealed a two phase event with another breach site downstream following flow blockage by higher elevation drumlin topography. We estimate the magnitude of peak flow to be 1–3 × 103 m3/s, duration of the event to range from 16–155 days, and a specific sediment yield of 107–109 m3/km2/yr. We identified other outburst pathways in the lower Tweed basin that help delineate an ice margin position of the retreating Tweed Valley ice stream. The results suggest that low magnitude outburst floods are under‐represented in Quaternary geomorphological maps. We therefore recommend regional LiDAR mapping of meltwater pathways to identify other GLOFs in order to better quantify the pattern of freshwater and sediment fluxes from melting ice sheets to oceans. Despite the relatively low magnitude of the Till outburst event, it had a significant impact on the landscape development of the lower Tweed Valley through the creation of a new tributary pathway and triggering of rapid knickpoint retreat encouraging new regional models of post‐glacial fluvial landscape response. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Cumulative probability functions (CPFs) for large numbers of radiocarbon age determinations are increasingly being used by scientists as a methodology to discern environmental histories. While the recent compilation of regional databases of the radiocarbon dating control for fluvial sediment sequences has been beneficial for identifying gaps in knowledge and stimulating new research, there are a number of problems that critically undermine the use of these CPFs as sensitive hydroclimatic proxies. (i) The CPF method is underpinned by the assumption that each radiocarbon measurement is a true age estimate for a point in time, whereas each measured age in fact forms a scatter around the true age of the sample; (ii) calibration of radiocarbon ages is responsible for much of the structure in CPFs and compounds the problem of scatter and smears the chronological control; (iii) the databases incorporate multiple types of environmental changes differing chronological relationships between the 14C measurements and the dated events, with pre‐dating, dating or post‐dating chronological control each displaying variable length temporal lags all mixed together in the same analysis; and (iv) the radiocarbon ages from individual case studies need to be more robustly tested before being incorporated into regional databases. All these factors negate the value of CPFs as sensitive proxies of environmental change, because peaks in probability for individual radiocarbon measurements are likely to be an incorrect estimate for the age of a geomorphological event and this problem is compounded by combining probabilities for multiple unrelated events. In this paper we present a critical analysis of CPFs and their interpretation before suggesting alternative approaches to analysing radiocarbon geochronologies of geomorphic events, which include: (i) Bayesian age modelling of river terrace development; (ii) developing regional databases that test specific geomorphic hypotheses; (iii) Bayesian age modelling of palaeoflood records; and (iv) analysis of sedimentation rates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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