A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania     

Papathoma-Koehle  Maria  Promper  Catrin  Bojariu  Roxana  Cica  Roxana  Sik  Andr&#;s  Perge  Kinga  L&#;szl&#;  Peter  Czikora  Erika Bal&#;zs  Dumitrescu  Alexandru  Turcus  Cosmin  Birsan  Marius-Victor  Velea  Liliana  Glade  Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(1):89-115

This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures.  相似文献