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Despite recent advances in supercomputing, current general circulation models poorly represent the variability associated with organized tropical convection. In a recent study, the authors have shown, in the context of a paradigm two baroclinic mode system, that a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization based on three cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) can be used to improve the variability and the dynamical structure of tropical convection. Here, the stochastic multicloud model is modified with a lag type stratiform closure and augmented with an explicit mechanism for congestus detrainment moistening. These modifications improve the representation of intermittent coherent structures such as synoptic and mesoscale convective systems. Moreover, the new stratiform-lag closure allows for increased robustness of the coherent features of the model with respect to the amount of stochastic noise and leading to a multi-scale organization of slowly moving waves envelopes in which short-lived and chaotic convective events persist. Congestus cloud decks dominate the suppressed-dry phase of the wave envelopes. The simulations with the new closure have a higher amount of stochastic noise and result in a Walker type circulation with realistic mean and coherent variability which surpasses results of previous deterministic and stochastic multicloud models in the same parameter regime. Further, deterministic mean field limit equations (DMFLE) for the stochastic multicloud model are considered. Aside from providing a link to the deterministic multicloud parameterization, the DMFLE allow a judicious way of determining the amount of deterministic and stochastic “chaos” in the system. It is shown that with the old stratiform heating closure, the stochastic process accounts for most of the chaotic behavior. The simulations with the new stratiform heating closure exhibit a mixture of stochastic and deterministic chaos. The highly chaotic dynamics in the simulations with congestus detrainment mechanism is due to the strongly nonlinear and numerically stiff deterministic dynamics. In the latter two cases, the DMFLE can be viewed as a “standalone” parameterization, which is capable of capturing some dynamical features of the stochastic parameterization. Furthermore, it is shown that, in spatially extended simulations, the stochastic multicloud model can capture qualitatively two local statistical features of the observations: long and short auto-correlation times of moisture and precipitation, respectively and the approximate power-law in the probability density of precipitation event size for large precipitation events. The latter feature is not reproduced in the column simulations. This fact underscores the importance of gravity waves and large scale moisture convergence. 相似文献
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Yevgeniy I. Aleksandrov Nikolay N. Bryazgin Eirik J. Førland Vladimir F. Radionov Pavel N. Svyashchennikov 《Polar research》2005,24(1-2):69-85
Observation data of temperature, precipitation and snow depth have been compiled and generalized climatologically for a network of 38 stations in and around the Barents and Kara seas, for the period 1951–1992. The monthly precipitation totals were corrected for measuring errors, and the correction method is described in detail. The corrected precipitation values show that the annual precipitation in the region ranges from more than 500 mm along the coast of the Kola Peninsula to less than 200 mm in parts of the north-eastern Kara Sea. The solid fraction of the annual precipitation ranges from 70% in northern parts to 35% in southern parts. For the period 1951–1992 the analysis indicates decreasing trends in annual values of temperature, precipitation and snow depths in the north-eastern parts of the region. 相似文献
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Multivariate grid-free geostatistical simulation with point or block scale secondary data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Yevgeniy Zagayevskiy Clayton V. Deutsch 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(6):1613-1633
A novel grid-free geostatistical simulation method (GFS) allows representing coregionalized variables as an analytical function of the coordinates of the simulation locations. Simulation on unstructured grids, regridding and refinement of available realizations of natural phenomena including, but not limited to, environmental systems are possible with GFS in a consistent manner. The unconditional realizations are generated by utilizing the linear model of coregionalization and Fourier series-based decomposition of the covariance function. The conditioning to data is performed by kriging. The data can be measured at scattered point-scale locations or sampled at a block scale. Secondary data are usually used in conjunction with primary data for the improved modeling. Satellite imaging is an example of exhaustively sampled secondary data. Improvements and recommendations are made to the implementation of GFS to properly assimilate secondary exhaustive data sets in a grid-free manner. Intrinsic cokriging (ICK) is utilized to reduce computational time and preserve the overall quality of the simulation. To further reduce the computational cost of ICK, a block matrix inversion is implemented in the calculation of the kriging weights. A projection approach to ICK is proposed to avoid artifacts in the realizations around the edges of the exhaustive data region when the data do not cover the entire modeling domain. The point-scale block value representation of the block-scale data is developed as an alternative to block cokriging to integrate block-scale data into realizations within the GFS framework. Several case studies support the proposed enhancements. 相似文献
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Metallic microspheres have been found in rocks from the Onaping Formation of the Sudbury impact structure, Canada. Microspherules are common in contact breccias, the lowest part of the Dowling Member, and rare microspherules have been found in the upper sequences of the Dowling Member. Separate microspherules are dispersed in the breccia matrix and do not form clusters. The sizes of the microspheres range from 5 to 30 μm; most commonly, they are 8–15 μm in size. The microspherules have a regular spherical shape, and in some cases show concentric zonal structures. The microspherules consist mostly of the refractory elements Cr, Co, Fe, Mo, W, and Ti, with a predominant Ni content of 40–75 wt%. The formation of the Sudbury metal microspherules by condensation in a high-temperature plume is suggested by their spherical shape, concentric-zoned structure, uniform composition, and distribution in fallback breccias of the crater-fill Onaping Formation. The content of the most refractory W in the composition of the microspheres indicates early condensation. A decrease in the content of W and an increase in the content of Ni in the microspheres of the upper layers relative to the content of these elements in the earliest microspheres of the contact layers indicate that they could have formed by fractional condensation during the expansion and cooling of the impact vapor plume. As source material, a combination of target rocks with high nickel content with a chondritic impactor is suggested. 相似文献
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