Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: Requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

J.W. Godt  R.L. Baum  W.Z. Savage  D. Salciarini  W.H. Schulz  E.L. Harp 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):214

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Ostracode carbonate δ18O- and δ13C-signature of hydrological and climatic changes affecting Lake Neuchâtel,Switzerland, since the latest Pleistocene     

Antje Schwalb  Guy S. Lister  Kerry Kelts 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1994,11(1):3-17

Floating and grounded peat plateaus were studied in fens in the Yukon Territory (Canada). The peat deposit may be over 4 m thick and consists of a lower bed of aquatic peat overlain by humic fen peat, mesic fen peat and woody peat. Permafrost in the grounded peat plateaus is older than the 1200 year old White River Ash, whereas permafrost in the floating peat plateau is younger.Peat accumulation rates since 1200 years B.P. were greater in the fens (85–100 cm) than on the surface of the peat plateaus (25–55 cm). Where the peat plateau is free-floating, it will persist until the climate changes, causing the icy core to thaw. Where the peat plateau is frozen to the mineral substrate, it slowly drowns since the fen peat accumulates faster than the woody peat. This drowning results in degradation of the landform independently of the climate. Only degradation of floating peat plateaus can be used to identify climatic changes.This publication is the first paper in a series of papers presented at the session on Past Climatic Change and the Development of Peatlands at the ASLO and SWS Meetings in Edmonton, Canada, May 30–June 3, 1993. Dr. P. Kuhry and Dr S. C. Zoltai are serving as Guest Editors.  相似文献   

On flares,substorms, and the theory of impulsive flux transfer events     

A. Bratenahl  P. J. Baum 《Solar physics》1976,47(1):345-360

Solar flares and magnetospheric substorms are discussed in the context of a general theory of impulsive flux transfer events (IFTE). IFTE theory, derived from laboratory observations in the Double Inverse Pinch Device (DIPD), provides a quantitative extension of neutral sheet theories to include nonsteady field line reconnection. Current flow along the reconnection line increases with magnetic flux storage. When flux build-up exceeds the level corresponding to a critical limit on the current, instabilities induce a sudden transition in the mode of conduction. The resulting IFTE, indifferent to the specific modes and instabilities involved, is the more energetic, the lower the initial resistivity. It is the more violent, the greater the resulting resistivity increase and the faster its growth. Violent events can develop very large voltage transients along the reconnection line. Persistent build-up promoting conditions produce relaxation oscillations in the quantity of flux and energy stored (build-up-IFTE cycles). It is difficult to avoid the conclusion: flares and substorms are examples of IFTE.  相似文献   

Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)     

E. Napolitano  F. Fusco  R. L. Baum  J. W. Godt  P. De Vita 《Landslides》2016,13(5):967-983

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.  相似文献   

Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold     

Seth D. Baum 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(2):759-775

This paper studies the risk of collision between asteroids and Earth. It focuses on uncertainty in the human consequences of asteroid collisions, with emphasis on the possibility of global catastrophe to human civilization. A detailed survey of the asteroid risk literature shows that while human consequences are recognized as a major point of uncertainty, the studies focus mainly on physical and environmental dimensions of the risk. Some potential human consequences are omitted entirely, such as the possibility of asteroid explosions inadvertently causing nuclear war. Other human consequences are modeled with varying degrees of detail. Direct medical effects are relatively well-characterized, while human consequences of global environmental effects are more uncertain. The latter are evaluated mainly in terms of a global catastrophe threshold, but such a threshold is deeply uncertain and may not even exist. To handle threshold uncertainty in asteroid policy, this paper adapts the concept of policy boundaries from literature on anthropogenic global environmental change (i.e., planetary boundaries). The paper proposes policy boundaries of 100 m asteroid diameter for global environmental effects and 1 m for inadvertent nuclear war. Other policy implications include a more aggressive asteroid risk mitigation policy and measures to avoid inadvertent nuclear war. The paper argues that for rare events like large asteroid collisions, the absence of robust data means that a wide range of possible human consequences should be considered. This implies humility for risk analysis and erring on the side of caution in policy.  相似文献   

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA     

Reid  Mark E.  Godt  Jonathan W.  LaHusen  Richard G.  Slaughter  Stephen L.  Badger  Thomas C.  Collins  Brian D.  Schulz  William H.  Baum  Rex L.  Coe  Jeffrey A.  Harp  Edwin L.  Schmidt  Kevin M.  Iverson  Richard M.  Smith  Joel B.  Haugerud  Ralph A.  George  David L. 《Landslides》2021,18(9):2993-3009

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

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Temporal trends in abundance of fish in the tidal Delaware River     

Stephen B. Weisberg  Peter Himchak  Tom Baum  Harold T. Wilson  Russell Allen 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(3):723-729

Water quality in the tidal Delaware River has improved dramatically over the last several decades. Areas near Philadelphia that were once anoxic and formed a pollution block to migratory fish passage now rarely experience dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 3 ppm. To assess whether these improvements in water quality led to increased abundance of juvenile fishes, data from a beach seine survey conducted annually since 1980 were examined. The number of species captured increased throughout the tidal river, but the increase was greatest in the areas downstream of Philadelphia, wheare water quality has improved the most. Abundance of juvenile striped bass and American shad, two important game species in the river whose migratory patterns make them susceptible to water quality problems, both increased more than, 1,000-fold during the last decade. Correlatations between the temporal abundance patterns of these species in the tidal Delaware River and in other East Coast systems were poor, suggesting that increases in their numbers were related more closely to improving conditions within the Delaware than to factors affecting coastal stocks.  相似文献   

Tektonische Untersuchungen am Westrand der Eifeler Nord-Süd-Zone zwischen Untermaubach und Heimbach     

Fritz Baum 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1955,44(1):148-167

Zusammenfassung Die Abbiegung der SE-Flanke des Vennsattels zum Westrand der Eifeler N-S-Zone wird von einem Störungsbündel begleitet, das die Achsenflexur zu einem Staffelbruch fortbildete und mehrmals posthum in Tätigkeit trat. Methoden werden entwickelt, um aus der Verstellung der feintektonischen Elemente nicht sichtbare Verwerfungen zu erschließen.  相似文献   

Products and Mechanism of the Gas Phase Reaction of Ozone with β-Pinene     

Richard Winterhalter  Peter Neeb  Dirk Grossmann  Antje Kolloff  Osamu Horie  Geert Moortgat 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2000,35(2):165-197

Gas phase ozonolysis of -pinene was performedin a 570 l static reactor at 730 Torr and 296 K insynthetic air and the products were analysed by acombination of gas phase FTIR spectroscopy, HPLC andIC analyses of gas phase and aerosol samples,respectively. The reaction mechanism was investigatedby adding HCHO, HCOOH and H₂O as Criegeeintermediate scavenger and cyclohexane as OH radicalscavenger. Main identified products (yields inparentheses) in the presence of cyclohexane as OHradical scavenger were HCHO (0.65 ± 0.04),nopinone (0.16 ± 0.04), 3-hydroxy-nopinone (0.15± 0.05), CO₂ (0.20 ± 0.04), CO (0.030± 0.002), HCOOH (0.020 ± 0.002), the secondaryozonide of -pinene (0.16 ± 0.05), andcis-pinic acid (0.02 ± 0.01). The decompositionof the primary ozonide was found to yieldpredominantly the excited C₉-Criegee intermediateand HCHO (0.84 ± 0.04) and to a minor extent theexcited CH₂OO intermediate and nopinone (0.16± 0.04). Roughly 40% of the excitedC₉-Criegee intermediate becomes stabilised andcould be shown to react with HCHO, HCOOH and H₂O. The atmospherically important reaction of thestabilised C₉-Criegee intermediate with H₂Owas found to result in a nopinone increase of (0.35± 0.05) and in the formation of H₂O₂(0.24 ± 0.03). Based on the observed products,the unimolecular decomposition/isomerisationchannels of the C₉-Criegee intermediate arediscussed in terms of the hydroperoxide and esterchannels. Subsequent reactions of the nopinonylradical, formed in the hydroperoxide channel, lead tomajor products like 3-hydroxy-nopinone but also tominor products like cis-pinic acid. A mechanismfor the formation of this dicarboxylic acid isproposed and its possible role in aerosol formationprocesses discussed.  相似文献   

Methane and sulfide fluxes in permanent anoxia: In situ studies at the Dvurechenskii mud volcano (Sorokin Trough, Black Sea)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Anna Lichtschlag  Janine Felden  Florence Schubotz  Antje Boetius  Dirk de Beer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(17):5002-5018

The Dvurechenskii mud volcano (DMV) is located in permanently anoxic waters at 2060 m depth (Sorokin Trough, Black Sea). The DMV was studied during the RV Meteor expedition M72/2 as an example of an active mud volcano system, to investigate the significance of submarine mud volcanism for the methane and sulfide budget of the anoxic Black Sea hydrosphere. Our studies included benthic fluxes of methane and sulfide, as well as the factors controlling transport, consumption and production of both compounds within the sediment. The pie-shaped mud volcano showed temperature anomalies as well as solute and gas fluxes indicating high fluid flow at its summit north of the geographical center. The anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) coupled to sulfate reduction (SR) was repressed in this zone due to the upward flow of sulfate-depleted fluids through recently deposited subsurface muds, apparently limiting microbial methanotrophic activity. Consequently, the emission of dissolved methane into the water column was high, with an estimated rate of 0.46 mol m⁻² d⁻¹. On the wide plateau and edge of the mud volcano surrounding the summit, fluid flow and total methane flux were lower, allowing higher SR and AOM rates correlated with an increase in sulfate penetration into the sediment. Here, between 50% and 70% of the methane flux (0.07-0.1 mol m⁻² d⁻¹) was consumed within the upper 10 cm of the sediment. The overall amount of dissolved methane released from the entire mud volcano structure into the water column was significant with a discharge of 1.3 × 10⁷ mol yr⁻¹. The DMV maintains also high areal rates of methane-fueled sulfide production and emission of on average 0.05 mol m⁻² d⁻¹. This is a difference to mud volcanoes in oxic waters, which emit similar amounts of methane, but not sulfide. However, based on a comparison of this and other mud volcanoes of the Black Sea, we conclude that sulfide and methane emission into the hydrosphere from deep-water mud volcanoes does not significantly contribute to the sulfide and methane inventory of the Black Sea.  相似文献