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A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions. 相似文献
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Drift probabilities for Icelandic cod larvae 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
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Abstract We look at the development of the first plumes that emerge from a convectively unstable boundary layer by modelling the process as the instability of a fluid with a time‐dependent mean density field. The fluid is semi‐infinite, rotating, dissipative ‐ characterized by the ratio of its viscosity to thermal diffusivity (Prandtl number Pr = ν/κ) ‐ and initially homogeneous. A constant destabilizing heat flux is applied at the boundary and the stability of the evolving density field is investigated both mathematically and in laboratory experiments. Using a “natural convective” scaling, we show that the behaviour of the non‐dimensional governing equations depends on Pr and the parameter γ = f(ν/B)1/2, where f is the Coriolis parameter, and B is the applied buoyancy flux. For the ocean, γ ≈ 0.1, whilst for the atmosphere γ ≈ 0.01. In the absence of rotation, the behaviour of the differential equations is independent of B, depending only on Pr. The boundary‐layer Rayleigh number (Rabl) is also independent of B. We show that Rabl, evaluated at the onset of rapid vertical motion, depends on the form of the perturbation. Due to the time‐dependence of the mean density field, analytic instability analysis is difficult, so we use a numerical technique. The governing equations are transformed to a stretched vertical coordinate and their stability investigated for a particular form of perturbation function. The model predictions are, for the ocean: instability time ～2–4 h, density difference ～0.002–0.013 kg m‐3, boundary‐layer thickness ～50–75 m and horizontal scale ～200–300 m; and for the atmosphere: instability time ～10 min, temperature difference ～2.0–3.0°C, boundary‐layer thickness ～400–500 m and horizontal scale ～1.5–2.0 km. Laboratory experiments are performed to compare with the numerical predictions. The time development of the mean field closely matches the assumed analytic form. Furthermore, the model predictions of the instability timescale agree well with the laboratory measurements. This supports the other predictions of the model, such as the lengthscales and buoyancy anomaly. 相似文献
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The circulation in the shelf seas of Maritime Canada is predominantly in the northeast–southwest direction. Despite the mean northeast–southwest flow, a number of AIS invasions have been observed to proceed in the opposite direction – from the Gulf of Maine, around Nova Scotia, and into the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Flow fields from a numerical circulation model are used to investigate whether these invasions could be due to drift in ocean currents. Particle tracking experiments are performed and probability density functions (PDFs) derived that describe the probability of drifting a given upstream distance in a given drift time. Analysis of these PDFs revealed that for invasions that took 20–40 y to occur, propagule drift in ocean currents could be responsible for the upstream spread, while this was not the case for short timescale invasions (<10 y). Rafting could be responsible for both short and long timescale invasions. 相似文献
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Stock collapses have occurred worldwide. The most frequently cited cause is over-fishing, suggesting that fisheries management has been ineffective in controlling exploitation rates. The progression of a fishery from an over-exploited to a collapsed state involves impairment of the reproductive capacity of the target species, i.e. recruitment over-fishing. In many cases, this occurs by reduction of the spawning stock biomass (SSB) through the systematic elimination of spawning components within a stock complex. While operational definitions of minimum levels of SSB have been developed, they have seldom been applied and never adopted in a Canadian groundfish management context. The answer to the question of how much is enough to perpetuate a stock under exploitation has been illusive. Serebryakov [J. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 47 (1990) 267] has advocated definition of critical levels of SSB based on survival rates (R/SSB). We review his method and discuss the utility of the approach. An alternative approach to the problem of estimating minimum SSB is through a fundamental revision of the traditional stock and recruitment relationship. Explicit theoretical SSB thresholds below which reproduction/recruitment is severely impaired based upon density-dependent mating success (or Allee effects) is considered a superior approach to the question of how much is enough because of its ecological grounding. However, the successful application of this approach will require re-definition of the space/time scales of the management unit. Finally, support is growing for the establishment of closed areas or “no-take zones” as an alternative approach to managing the problems of fishing a stock complex by enabling sub-populations to escape fishing. While the expected benefits of areas protected from fishing are numerous, clear demonstrations of benefits of such areas in marine temperate ecosystems are lacking. In fact, unintended negative consequences may result from such actions. 相似文献
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