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Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献
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Sediment concentration changes in runoff pathways from a forest road network and the resultant spatial pattern of catchment connectivity 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Hydrological connectivity is a term often used to describe the internal linkages between runoff and sediment generation in upper parts of catchments and the receiving waters. In this paper, we identify two types of connectivity: direct connectivity via new channels or gullies, and diffuse connectivity as surface runoff reaches the stream network via overland flow pathways. Using a forest road network as an example of a landscape element with a high runoff source strength, we demonstrate the spatial distribution of these two types of linkages in a 57 km2 catchment in southeastern Australia. Field surveys and empirical modelling indicate that direct connectivity occurs primarily due to gully development at road culverts, where the average sediment transport distance is 89 m below the road outlet. The majority of road outlets were characterised by dispersive flow pathways where the maximum potential sediment transport distance is measured as the available hillslope length below the road outlet. This length has a mean value of 120 m for this catchment. Reductions in sediment concentration in runoff plumes from both pathways are modelled using an exponential decay function and data derived from large rainfall simulator experiments in the catchment. The concept of the volume to breakthrough is used to model the potential delivery of runoff from dispersive pathways. Of the surveyed road drains (n=218), only 11 are predicted to deliver runoff to a stream and the greatest contributor of runoff occurs at a stream crossing where a road segment discharges directly into the stream. The methodology described here can be used to assess the spatial distribution and likely impact of dispersive and gullied pathways on in-stream water quality. 相似文献
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Eugene E. Epstein Michael A. Janssen Jeffrey N. Cuzzi William G. Fogarty John Mottmann 《Icarus》1980,41(1):103-118
We have used 3-mm Saturn observations, obtained from 1965 through 1977 and with Jupiter as a reference, to derive a ring brightness temperature of 18 ± 8°K. Thebrightness temperature of the disk of Saturn is 156 ± 9° K. Part of the ring brightness (≈62K) may be accounted for as disk emission which is scattered from the rings; the remainder (12 ± 8° K we attributed to ring particle thermal emission. Because this thermal component brightness temperatures is so much less than the particle physical temperature, limits are placed on the mean size and composition of the ring particles. In particular, as found by others, the particles cannot be rocky, but must be either metallic or composed of extremely low-loss dielectric material such as water ice. If the particles are pure water ice, for example, then a simple slab model and a multiple-scattering model both give upper limits to the particle sizes of ≈ 1 m, a value three times smaller than previously available. The multiple-scattering model gives a particle single-scattering albedo at 3 mm of 0.83±0.13. 相似文献
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Fogarty Michael J.; Myers Ransom A.; Bowen Keith G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(5):952-961
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In-stream wetlands and their significance for channel filling and the catchment sediment budget, Jugiong Creek, New South Wales 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Evidence is presented here of recent and extensive infilling of the incised channel network of the Jugiong Creek catchment, SE Australia. The present channel network resulted from widespread stream and gully incision in the period between 1880 and 1920. Our survey shows that gully floors have been colonised extensively by emergent macrophyte vegetation since before 1944, forming continuous, dense, in-stream wetlands, which now cover 25% of the channel network in the 2175 km2 catchment and have so far trapped almost 2,000,000 t of nutrient-enriched, fine sediments. This mass of sediments represents the equivalent of 4.7 years of annual sediment production across the catchment and in some tributaries, more than 20 years of annual yield is stored within in-stream wetlands.Previous work on the late Quaternary stratigraphy of the region has shown that there were repeated phases of channel incision in the past following which the channels quickly stabilised by natural means and then filled with fine-grained sediment to the point of channel extinction, creating unchannelled swampy valley floors. The current formation and spread of in-stream wetlands is interpreted to be the onset of the next infill phase but it is not known whether present conditions will allow complete channel filling and reformation of the pre-existing swampy valley floors. Nevertheless, further spread of in-stream wetlands is likely to increase the sediment trapping capacity and further reduce the discharge of sediments and nutrients into the Murrumbidgee River. The in-stream wetlands may provide a significant capacity to buffer erosion from gullied catchments of considerable size (up to 300 km2) as an adjunct to current riparian management options. They may also assist the recovery of sediment-impacted channels downstream. 相似文献
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While previous research has documented marine fish and invertebrates shifting poleward in response to warming climates, less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. By examining fisheries in the northeastern United States over the last four decades of warming temperatures, we show that northward shifts in species distributions were matched by corresponding northward shifts in fisheries. The proportion of warm-water species caught in most states also increased through time. Most importantly, however, fisheries shifted only 10–30 % as much as their target species, and evidence suggested that economic and regulatory constraints played important roles in creating these lags. These lags may lead to overfishing and population declines if not accounted for in fisheries management and climate adaptation. In coupled natural-human systems such as fisheries, human actions play important roles in determining the sustainability of the system and, therefore, future conservation and climate mitigation planning will need to consider not only biophysical changes, but also human responses to these changes and the feedbacks that these responses have on ecosystems. 相似文献
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Variations in Typhoon Landfalls over China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Emily A. FOGARTY James B. ELSNER Thomas H. JAGGER Kam-biu LIU Kin-sheun LOUIE 《大气科学进展》2006,23(5):665-677
The interannual variability in typhoon landfalls over China is investigated using historical and modern records. For the purpose of substantiating and elaborating upon the claim of north to south variation in tropical cyclone activity over China, a north-to-south anti-correlation in yearly activity is confirmed in the historical cyclone records. When cyclone activity over the province of Guangdong is high （low）, it tends to be low （high） over the province of Fujian. A similar spatial variation is identified in the modern records using a factor analysis model, which delineates typhoon activity over the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan from the activity over the northern provinces of Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. A landfall index of typhoon activity representing the degree to which each year follows this pattern of activity is used to identify correlated climate variables. A useful statistical regression model that includes sea-level pressure differences between Mongolia and western China and sea-surface temperature （SST） over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the summer explains 26% of the interannual variability of the landfall index. It is suggested that a stronger than normal north-south pressure gradient increases the surface easterly wind flow over northern China： this, coupled with lower SST over the Pacific, favors typhoons taking a more westerly track toward southern China. 相似文献
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This research explores the relationship between geographic and social media network space. The purpose of this paper is twofold: to perform a geo-enhanced network analysis and to create an example social media network using a select location identified in the study area as important in the results of the geo-enhanced network analysis. A straightforward, non-technical example is provided to the readers on how location data and social media network data can be overlaid to visualize potential local firm to firm and firm to customer connections in geographic and social media network space. An example of how to identify these potential connections locally through social media networks using Twitter is demonstrated. By considering the geographic location in network structures, it is possible to convey the role distance plays in discerning prospective local social media marketing partners, and also track the spread of information flow through social media networks.
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