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A. M. F. Lagmay K. S. Rodolfo F. P. Siringan H. Uy C. Remotigue P. Zamora M. Lapus R. Rodolfo J. Ong 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,69(7):797-809
The 1991 Pinatubo eruption left 5–6 km3 of debris on the volcano slopes, much of which has been mobilized into large lahars in the following rainy seasons. Also
during the eruption, collapse, localized in part along preexisting faults, left a caldera 2.5 km in diameter that almost immediately
began to accumulate a 1.6 × 108 m3 lake. By 2001, the water had risen to the fault-controlled Maraunot Notch, the lowest, northwestern portion of the caldera
rim comprising the physiographic sill of the Caldera Lake. That year, a narrow artificial canal dug into an old volcanic breccia
underlying the outlet channel failed to induce a deliberate lake breakout, but discharge from heavy rains in July 2002 rapidly
deepened the notch by 23 m, releasing an estimated 6.5 × 107 m3 of lake water that bulked up into lahars with a volume well in excess of 1.6 × 108 m3. Lakes in other volcanoes have experienced multiple breakouts, providing practical motivation for this study. Fieldwork and
high-resolution digital elevation models reveal andesites and ancient lacustrine deposits, strongly fractured and deformed
along a segment of the Maraunot Fault, a prominent, steeply dipping, left-lateral fault zone that trends N35°–40°W within
and parallel to the notch. Seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active. The fault zone appears
to have previously been the erosional locus for a large channel, filled with avalanche or landslide deposits of an earlier
eruption that were exhumed by the 2002 breakout floods. The deformed lacustrine sediments, with an uncalibrated 14C age of 14,760 ± 40 year BP from a single charcoal sample, attest to the existence of an earlier lake, possibly within the
Tayawan Caldera, rim remnants of which survive as arcuate escarpments. That lake may well have experienced one or more ancient
breakouts as well. The 2002 event greatly reduced the possibility of another such event by scouring away the erodible breccia,
leaving less erodible fractured andesites and lacustrine rocks, and by enlarging the outlet channel and its discharge capacity.
Several lines of evidence indicate, however, that future lahar-generating lake breakouts at the notch may keep populations
of Botolan municipality downstream at risk: (1) a volume of 9.5 × 107 m3 of lake water remains perched 0.8 km above sea level; (2) seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still
active and movements of sufficient magnitude could enlarge the outlet and the discharge through it; (3) more likely, however,
with or without earthquake activity, landslides from the steep to overhanging channel walls could block the channel again,
and a major rainstorm could then cause a rise in lake level and sudden breakouts; (4) intrusion of a new dome into the bottom
of the lake, possibly accompanied by phreatic explosions, could expel large volumes of lahar-generating water. 相似文献
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Isabel Pérez Francisco Martín Romero Olivia Zamora Margarita Eugenia Gutiérrez-Ruiz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(5):1521-1531
A total of 113 samples of waste and soil were collected from a site in the state of San Luis Potosi, Mexico, that was occupied for several years by the metallurgical industry. Specific magnetic susceptibility (MS), electrical conductivity (EC) and pH were determined, as well as the total and available concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn, which may cause a health risk for humans, animals and ecosystems, and the concentrations of major ions in aqueous extracts of soils and wastes. The solid phases of the samples were also characterized. The results revealed that the soils and wastes exhibited elevated values of PTEs, MS and EC. For soils these values decreased with increasing distance from the waste storage sites. The MS values were elevated primarily due to the presence of Fe-oxyhydroxides, such as magnetite, hematite and goethite, which contain PTEs in their structure leading to a high correlation between the value of MS and the As, Cd, Fe and Pb contents (r = 0.57–0.91) as well as between the PTEs values (r = 0.68–0.92). The elevated EC values measured in the metallurgical wastes were the result of presence of the sulfate minerals of Ca, Mg and Fe. The pollution index, which indicates the levels of simultaneous toxicity from elements such as As, Cd and Pb, was determined, with extreme hazard zones corresponding to areas that exhibit high MS values (0.91 correlation). In conclusion, MS measurements can be used as an indirect indicator to evaluate the PTE contamination in metallurgical areas, and EC measurements can aid in the identification of pollution sources. 相似文献
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Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks. 相似文献
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Brandmeier Melanie Cabrera Zamora Irving Gibran Nykänen Vesa Middleton Maarit 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(1):71-88
With an increasing demand for raw materials, predictive models that support successful mineral exploration targeting are of great importance. We evaluated different machine learning techniques with an emphasis on boosting algorithms and implemented them in an ArcGIS toolbox. Performance was tested on an exploration dataset from the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB) with respect to accuracy, performance, stability, and robustness. Boosting algorithms are ensemble methods used in supervised learning for regression and classification. They combine weak classifiers, i.e., classifiers that perform slightly better than random guessing to obtain robust classifiers. Each time a weak learner is added; the learning set is reweighted to give more importance to misclassified samples. Our test area, the IPB, is one of the oldest mining districts in the world and hosts giant volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VMS) deposits. The spatial density of ore deposits, as well as the size and tonnage, makes the area unique, and due to the high data availability and number of known deposits, well-suited for testing machine learning algorithms. We combined several geophysical datasets, as well as layers derived from geological maps as predictors of the presence or absence of VMS deposits. Boosting algorithms such as BrownBoost and Adaboost were tested and compared to Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector machines (SVM) in several experiments. We found performance results relatively similar, especially to BrownBoost, which slightly outperformed LR and SVM with respective accuracies of 0.96 compared to 0.89 and 0.93. Data augmentation by perturbing deposit location led to a 7% improvement in results. Variations in the split ratio of training and test data led to a reduction in the accuracy of the prediction result with relative stability occurring at a critical point at around 26 training samples out of 130 total samples. When lower numbers of training data were introduced accuracy dropped significantly. In comparison with other machine learning methods, Adaboost is user-friendly due to relatively short training and prediction times, the low likelihood of overfitting and the reduced number of hyperparameters for optimization. Boosting algorithms gave high predictive accuracies, making them a potential data-driven alternative for regional scale and/or brownfields mineral exploration.
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Finn Løvholt Sylfest Glimsdal Carl B. Harbitz Natalia Zamora Farrokh Nadim Pascal Peduzzi Hy Dao Helge Smebye 《Earth》2012,110(1-4):58-73
In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends. 相似文献
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Influences of the unsaturated,saturated, and riparian zones on the transport of nitrate near the Merced River,California, USA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Joseph L. Domagalski Steven P. Phillips E. Randall Bayless Celia Zamora Carol Kendall Richard A. WildmanJr Janet G. Hering 《Hydrogeology Journal》2008,16(4):675-690
Transport and transformation of nitrate was evaluated along a 1-km groundwater transect from an almond orchard to the Merced River, California, USA, within an irrigated agricultural setting. As indicated by measurements of pore-water nitrate and modeling using the root zone water quality model, about 63% of the applied nitrogen was transported through a 6.5-m unsaturated zone. Transport times from recharge locations to the edge of a riparian zone ranged from approximately 6 months to greater than 100 years. This allowed for partial denitrification in horizons having mildly reducing conditions, and essentially no denitrification in horizons with oxidizing conditions. Transport times across a 50–100-m-wide riparian zone of less than a year to over 6 years and more strongly reducing conditions resulted in greater rates of denitrification. Isotopic measurements and concentrations of excess N2 in water were indicative of denitrification with the highest rates below the Merced River. Discharge of water and nitrate into the river was dependent on gradients driven by irrigation or river stage. The results suggest that the assimilative capacity for nitrate of the groundwater system, and particularly the riverbed, is limiting the nitrate load to the Merced River in the study area. 相似文献
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Emily Fung Pablo Imbach Lenin Corrales Sergio Vilchez Nelson Zamora Freddy Argotty Lee Hannah Zayra Ramos 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):77-92
Climate change and land use conversion are global threats to biodiversity. Protected areas and biological corridors have been historically implemented as biodiversity conservation measures and suggested as tools within planning frameworks to respond to climate change. However, few applications to national protected areas systems considering climate change in tropical countries exist. Our goal is to define new priority areas for biodiversity conservation and biological corridors within an existing protected areas network. We aim at preserving samples of all biodiversity under climate change and facilitate species dispersal to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity. The analysis was based on a three step strategy: i) protect representative samples of various levels of terrestrial biodiversity across protected area systems given future redistributions under climate change, ii) identify and protect areas with reduced climate velocities where populations could persist for relatively longer periods, and iii) ensure species dispersal between conservation areas through climatic connectivity pathways. The study was integrated into a participatory planning approach for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica. Results showed that there should be an increase of 11 % and 5 % on new conservation areas and biological corridors respectively. Our approach integrates climate change into the design of a network of protected areas for tropical ecosystems and can be applied to other biodiversity rich areas to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity to global warming. 相似文献
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Andrés Folguera Emilio Rojas Vera Germán Bottesi Gonzalo Zamora Valcarce Victor A. Ramos 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(5):287-295
The Loncopué Trough is located in the hinterland Andean zone between 36°30′ and 39°S. It constitutes a topographic low bounded by normal faults and filled by lavas and sediments less than 5 Ma old. Reprocessed seismic lines show wedge-like depocenters up to 1700 m deep associated with high-angle faults, correlated with the 27–17 Ma Cura Mallín basin deposits, and buried beneath Pliocene to Quaternary successions and Late Miocene foreland sequences. The southern Central Andes seem to have been under extension in the hinterland zone some 27 Ma ago and again at approximately 5 Ma ago. This last extensional period could have been the product of slab steepening after a shallow subduction cycle in the area, although other alternatives are discussed. Orogenic wedge topography, altered by the first extensional stage in the area, was recovered through Late Miocene inversion, and was associated with foreland sequences. However, since the last extension (<5 Ma) the Andes have not recovered their characteristic contractional behavior that controlled past orogenic growth. 相似文献