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Petra Döll Hervé Douville Andreas Güntner Hannes Müller Schmied Yoshihide Wada 《Surveys in Geophysics》2016,37(2):195-221
Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
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Doris Schmied 《GeoJournal》2000,50(2-3):91-96
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children. 相似文献
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Annette Eicker Maike Schumacher Jürgen Kusche Petra Döll Hannes Müller Schmied 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(6):1285-1309
We introduce a new ensemble-based Kalman filter approach to assimilate GRACE satellite gravity data into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. The approach (1) enables the use of the spatial resolution provided by GRACE by including the satellite observations as a gridded data product, (2) accounts for the complex spatial GRACE error correlation pattern by rigorous error propagation from the monthly GRACE solutions, and (3) allows us to integrate model parameter calibration and data assimilation within a unified framework. We investigate the formal contribution of GRACE observations to the Kalman filter update by analysis of the Kalman gain matrix. We then present first model runs, calibrated via data assimilation, for two different experiments: the first one assimilates GRACE basin averages of total water storage and the second one introduces gridded GRACE data at \(5^\circ\) resolution into the assimilation. We finally validate the assimilated model by running it in free mode (i.e., without adding any further GRACE information) for a period of 3 years following the assimilation phase and comparing the results to the GRACE observations available for this period. 相似文献
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Doris Schmied 《GeoJournal》1993,30(2):153-158
Famine prevention and mitigation strategies have become an established area of interest for researchers concerned with food insecurity. Studies often focus on one famine event and the coping strategies immediately preceding or accompanying it. By contrast, this case study adopts a long-term perspective and depicts the changes of indigenous and exogenous famine-coping strategies among the Gogo, an ethnic group in semi-arid central Tanzania, over a time-span of one and half centuries. By doing so, this paper tries to give insights into the continuity and adaptability of human reactions to a persistent problem under changing socio-economic circumstances. 相似文献
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Kyprioti Aikaterini P. Taflanidis Alexandros A. Plumlee Matthew Asher Taylor G. Spiller Elaine Luettich Richard A. Blanton Brian Kijewski-Correa Tracy L. Kennedy Andrew Schmied Lauren 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1349-1386
Surrogate models are becoming increasingly popular for storm surge predictions. Using existing databases of storm simulations, developed typically during regional flood studies, these models provide fast-to-compute, data-driven approximations quantifying the expected storm surge for any new storm (not included in the training database). This paper considers the development of such a surrogate model for Delaware Bay, using a database of 156 simulations driven by synthetic tropical cyclones and offering predictions for a grid that includes close to 300,000 computational nodes within the geographical domain of interest. Kriging (Gaussian Process regression) is adopted as the surrogate modeling technique, and various relevant advancements are established. The appropriate parameterization of the synthetic storm database is examined. For this, instead of the storm features at landfall, the features when the storm is at closest distance to some representative point of the domain of interest are investigated as an alternative parametrization, and are found to produce a better surrogate. For nodes that remained dry for some of the database storms, imputation of the surge using a weighted k nearest neighbor (kNN) interpolation is considered to fill in the missing data. The use of a secondary, classification surrogate model, combining logistic principal component analysis and Kriging, is examined to address instances for which the imputed surge leads to misclassification of the node condition. Finally, concerns related to overfitting for the surrogate model are discussed, stemming from the small size of the available database. These concerns extend to both the calibration of the surrogate model hyper-parameters, as well as to the validation approaches adopted. During this process, the benefits from the use of principal component analysis as a dimensionality reduction technique, and the appropriate transformation and scaling of the surge output are examined in detail.
相似文献6.
Aymeric Jouon Jean Pierre Lefebvre Pascal Douillet Sylvain Ouillon Loys Schmied 《Coastal Engineering》2009,56(5-6):599-608
The south-west reef lagoon of New Caledonia is a semi-enclosed basin where, on first approximation, dominating sea state component corresponds to locally generated wind waves. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the wave model WAVEWATCH III to simulate wind wave distribution in this particular fetch-limited context, with a given parameterisation. In order to evaluate the consistency of the simulation results, wave parameters were measured in situ by a wave and tide recorder (WTR9 Aanderaa) and by an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV Sontek). This study underlines specific constrains for the deployment of instruments to assess the characteristic parameters of low amplitude and high frequency wind-waves. Special care was taken in the comparison step as, on one hand the wave model did not simulate the propagation of low-frequency oceanic waves inside the lagoon, and on the other hand the measured spectra bear an intrinsic limitation for high frequencies. The approximation of a sea state dominated by wind waves is verified on the study site. The accuracy of the simulation results is discussed with regards to the wind forcing applied to the model. 相似文献
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Petra Döll Mathias Fritsche Annette Eicker Hannes Müller Schmied 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(6):1311-1331
Better quantification of continental water storage variations is expected to improve our understanding of water flows, including evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharge as well as human water abstractions. For the first time, total water storage (TWS) on the land area of the globe as computed by the global water model WaterGAP (Water Global Assessment and Prognosis) was compared to both gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations. The GRACE satellites sense the effect of TWS on the dynamic gravity field of the Earth. GPS reference points are displaced due to crustal deformation caused by time-varying TWS. Unfortunately, the worldwide coverage of the GPS tracking network is irregular, while GRACE provides global coverage albeit with low spatial resolution. Detrended TWS time series were analyzed by determining scaling factors for mean annual amplitude (f GRACE) and time series of monthly TWS (f GPS). Both GRACE and GPS indicate that WaterGAP underestimates seasonal variations of TWS on most of the land area of the globe. In addition, seasonal maximum TWS occurs 1 month earlier according to WaterGAP than according to GRACE on most land areas. While WaterGAP TWS is sensitive to the applied climate input data, none of the two data sets result in a clearly better fit to the observations. Due to the low number of GPS sites, GPS observations are less useful for validating global hydrological models than GRACE observations, but they serve to support the validity of GRACE TWS as observational target for hydrological modeling. For unknown reasons, WaterGAP appears to fit better to GPS than to GRACE. Both GPS and GRACE data, however, are rather uncertain due to a number of reasons, in particular in dry regions. It is not possible to benefit from either GPS or GRACE observations to monitor and quantify human water abstractions if only detrended (seasonal) TWS variations are considered. Regarding GRACE, this is mainly caused by the attenuation of the TWS differences between water abstraction variants due to the filtering required for GRACE TWS. Regarding GPS, station density is too low. Only if water abstractions lead to long-term changes in TWS by depletion or restoration of water storage in groundwater or large surface water bodies, GRACE may be used to support the quantification of human water abstractions. 相似文献
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