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We developed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability in the Mabote and Moma Districts of Mozambique. We surveyed 200 households in each district to collect data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. Results suggest that Moma may be more vulnerable in terms of water resources while Mabote may be more vulnerable in terms of socio-demographic structure. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor vulnerability, program resources for assistance, and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in data-scarce regions by introducing scenarios into the LVI model for baseline comparison.  相似文献   
3.
The Leo Pargil dome (LPD) in northwest India exposes an interconnected network of pre-, syn-, and post-kinematic leucogranite dikes and sills that pervasively intrude amphibolite-facies metapelites of the mid-crustal Greater Himalayan sequence. Leucogranite bodies range from thin (5-cm-wide) locally derived sills to thick (2-m-wide) crosscutting dikes extending at least 100 m. Three-dimensional exposures elucidate crosscutting relations between different phases of melt injection and crystallization. Combined laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry U–Th/Pb geochronology and trace element analysis on well-characterized monazite grains from nineteen representative leucogranites yields a large, internally consistent data set of approximately 700 U–Th/Pb and 400 trace element analyses. Grain-scale variations in age correlate with trace element distributions and indicate semi-continuous crystallization of monazite from 30 to 18 Ma. The youngest U–Th/Pb ages in a given sample are consistent with the outcrop-scale crosscutting relations, whereas older ages within individual samples record inheritance from partially crystallized melt and source metapelites. U–Th/Pb isotopic and trace element data are incorporated into a model of melting within the LPD that involves (1) steady-state equilibrium batch melting of compositionally homogeneous metapelitic sources; (2) pulses of increased melt mobility lasting 1–2 m.y. resulting in segregation of melt from its source and amalgamation into mixed magmas; and (3) rapid emplacement and final crystallization of leucogranite bodies. Melt systems in the LPD evolved from locally derived, in situ melt in migmatitic source rocks into a vast network of dikes and sills in the overlying non-migmatitic host rocks.  相似文献   
4.
Seagrasses are a critical marine habitat and are in decline worldwide. Previous studies have demonstrated that factors such as sediment conditions, resource availability, and desiccation can influence life history transitions and morphology in intertidal eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) and therefore potential for recovery after a disturbance. We combined these factors in an exploratory path model linking environmental conditions to eelgrass vegetative (shoot size and density) and reproductive traits (branching, flowering, seedling recruitment). In this construction, significant path coefficients reveal factors influencing recovery potential. To test the path model, we collected abiotic and eelgrass data at 17 sites in the southern Salish Sea (Washington, USA) and assessed model fit with structural equation modeling. Significant path coefficients linked sediment organic content to shoot size and seedling recruitment, tidal amplitude to reduced flowering, and shoot size and density were inversely correlated. We found no significant links between any morphological or life history trait and nutrient availability, possibly reflecting consistently high nutrients across sites. Variable rates of asexual reproduction and a trade-off between shoot size and density may reflect light limitation in eelgrass’ intertidal range, where light is not expected to be strongly limiting. Overall, structural equation modeling identified organic-rich sediments as relatively more important than desiccation and nutrient conditions for resilience potential of intertidal eelgrass populations in this region. Life history and morphological traits provide eelgrass with recovery mechanisms from disturbance where sediments are muddy, which has implications for both conservation and restoration.  相似文献   
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Recent studies have demonstrated that sponge‐eating fishes alter the community of sponges on coral reefs across the Caribbean. Sponge species that lack chemical defenses but grow or reproduce faster than defended species are more abundant on reefs where sponge‐eating fishes have been removed by overfishing. Does predator‐removal have an effect on the distribution of sponges at smaller spatial scales? We conducted transect surveys of sponge species that are palatable to sponge predators in proximity to refuge organisms that are chemically or physically defended (fire coral, gorgonians, hard corals) on the heavily overfished reefs of Bocas del Toro, Panama, and a reef in the Florida Keys where sponge‐eating fishes are abundant. In Panama, palatable sponge species were not distributed in close association with refuge organisms, while in the Florida Keys, palatable sponge species were strongly associated with refuge organisms. The presence of fish predators alters the meter‐scale pattern of sponge distribution, and defense by association enhances biodiversity by allowing palatable sponges to persist on reefs where sponge‐eating fishes are abundant.  相似文献   
6.
The degree to which the hydrologic water balance in a snow-dominated headwater catchment is affected by annual climate variations is difficult to quantify, primarily due to uncertainties in measuring precipitation inputs and evapotranspiration (ET) losses. Over a recent three-year period, the snowpack in California's Sierra Nevada fluctuated from the lightest in recorded history (2015) to historically heaviest (2017), with a relatively average year in between (2016). This large dynamic range in climatic conditions presents a unique opportunity to investigate correlations between annual water availability and runoff in a snow-dominated catchment. Here, we estimate ET using a water balance approach where the water inputs to the system are spatially constrained using a combination of remote sensing, physically based modelling, and in-situ observations. For all 3 years of this study, the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) combined periodic high-resolution snow depths from airborne Lidar with snow density estimates from an energy and mass balance model to produce spatial estimates of snow water equivalent over the Tuolumne headwater catchment at 50-m resolution. Using observed reservoir inflow at the basin outlet and the well-quantified snowmelt model results that benefit from periodic ASO snow depth updates, we estimate annual ET, runoff efficiency (RE), and the associated uncertainty across these three dissimilar water years. Throughout the study period, estimated annual ET magnitudes remained steady (222 mm in 2015, 151 mm in 2016, and 299 mm in 2017) relative to the large differences in basin input precipitation (547 mm in 2015, 1,060 mm in 2016, and 2,211 mm in 2017). These values compare well with independent satellite-derived ET estimates and previously published studies in this basin. Results reveal that ET in the Tuolumne does not scale linearly with the amount of available water to the basin, and that RE primarily depends on total annual snowfall proportion of precipitation.  相似文献   
7.
Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) provides many important ecosystem functions, but SAV has been significantly reduced in many estuaries. We used spatial–statistical models to identify estuarine shoreline characteristics that explain variations in SAV abundance among subestuaries of the Chesapeake Bay and mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays. We summarized digital spatial data on shoreline construction, shoreline land use, physical characteristics, watershed land cover, and salinity for each subestuary. We related SAV abundance to shoreline characteristics and other stressors using univariate regression and multivariate models. The strongest univariate predictors of SAV abundance were percent shoreline forest, percent shoreline marsh, the percentage of shoreline that is 5–10 m tall, percent riprap, the percentage of subestuary area <2 m deep, percent herbaceous wetland, and percent shrubland. Shoreline marsh, bulkhead, and shoreline forest had different effects on SAV in different salinity zones. Percent riprap shoreline was the most important variable in a regression tree analysis of all the subestuaries, and percent deciduous forest in the watershed was the most important variable in a separate regression tree analysis on the mesohaline subestuaries. Subestuaries with <5.4 % riprap followed a significantly different temporal trajectory than those with >5.4 % riprap. SAV abundance has increased steadily since 1984 in subestuaries with <5.4 % riprap, but has not increased since 1996–1997 in subestuaries with >5.4 % riprap. Some shoreline characteristics interact with larger-scale factors like land cover and salinity zone to affect the distribution of SAV, while the effects of other shoreline characteristics are consistent among subestuaries with different salinities or local watershed land covers. Many shoreline characteristics can be controlled by management decisions, and our results help identify factors that managers should consider in efforts to increase SAV abundance.  相似文献   
8.
We report high-spectral resolution observations of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 before, during and after the impact on 4 July 2005 UT of the Deep Impact spacecraft with the comet. These observations were obtained with the HIRES instrument on Keck 1. We observed brightening of both the dust and gas, but at different rates. We report the behavior of OH, NH, CN, C3, CH, NH2 and C2 gas. From our observations, we determined a CN outflow velocity of at least 0.51 km s−1. The dust color did not change substantially. To date, we see no new species in our spectra, nor do we see any evidence of prompt emission. From our observations, the interior material released by the impact looks the same as the material released from the surface by ambient cometary activity. However, further processing of the data may uncover subtle differences in the material that is released as well as the time evolution of this material.  相似文献   
9.
ABSTRACT

This study assessed the utility of EUDEM, a recently released digital elevation model, to support flood inundation modelling. To this end, a comparison with other topographic data sources was performed (i.e. LIDAR, light detection and ranging; SRTM, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) on a 98-km reach of the River Po, between Cremona and Borgoforte (Italy). This comparison was implemented using different model structures while explicitly accounting for uncertainty in model parameters and upstream boundary conditions. This approach facilitated a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty associated with hydraulic modelling of floods. For this test site, our results showed that the flood inundation models built on coarse resolutions data (EUDEM and SRTM) and simple one-dimensional model structure performed well during model evaluation.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Weijs  相似文献   
10.
Analysis of aerial photographs and historic charts indicates that the barrier beach at Brigantine, NJ has migrated landward 300 to 400 m since 1869, primarily as a result of overwash during hurricanes and winter storms. A series of vibracores from the backbarrier salt marsh reveals a millennial-scale stratigraphic record of overwash deposition. Carbon-14 (C-14) and Cesium-137 (Cs-137) radioisotopic methods were used to date overwash deposits (washovers). The ages of recent washovers are consistent with deposition during intense storms in 1938, 1944, 1950, and 1962. An additional overwash deposit recovered in five of the sediment cores was likely deposited by an intense hurricane strike in 1821 or possibly in 1788. Two prehistoric overwash fans were likely deposited by intense storms striking the New Jersey Coast in the 7th to 14th centuries and 6th to 7th centuries A.D. The landward barrier migration indicates that the older overwash sediments were likely transported a considerably greater distance than the more recent overwash fans. The greater distance of transport may indicate that the prehistoric storms that deposited overwash fans across the study site were more intense than the most intense storm to strike this coast in the historic period, the hurricane of 1821. The spatially variable occurrence of overwash deposition at this site points to a need for multisite stratigraphic surveys of extensive stretches of the coast in order to develop reliable records of past intense storm frequency from backbarrier environments.  相似文献   
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