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Diana Tingley Jóhann Ásmundsson Edward Borodzicz Alexis Conides Ben Drakeford Ingi Rúnar Eðvarðsson Dennis Holm Kostas Kapiris Sakari Kuikka Bogi Mortensen 《Marine Policy》2010
This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control. 相似文献
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Helen Glenn Diana TingleySonia Sánchez Maroño Dennis HolmGurpreet Padda Ingi Runar EdvardssonAlexis Conides Kostas KapirisMintewab Bezabih Premachandra WattageSakari Kuikka 《Marine Policy》2012,36(1):54-72
This paper explores the issue of “trust” in the fisheries science community, a key corollary of effective risk communication. It presents the findings of a survey undertaken in Iceland, Greece, Spain, United Kingdom and Faroe Islands during 2008. The findings reveal differing levels of trust and mistrust in the fisheries science community between countries and between stakeholder groups, demonstrating areas for future attention in the interests of improving fisheries science and management. As this paper explores, unfortunately the “trust” necessary for effective stakeholder cooperation and participation within current fisheries science is currently somewhat lacking. The cited reasons behind this lack of trust include: a lack of soundness, credibility, responsiveness, flexibility and stakeholder involvement, flawed data and weak science, poor communications and political and lobby group interference. Notable from the results is a lack of consensus on the existence of a common language and vision. It is evident, however, that certain aspects of fisheries science are strong contributors to trust and that there are opportunities for improvement. 相似文献
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Climatic change impact studies are among the most complicated environmental assessments scientists have ever faced. The questions that policy makers face are enormous. There is plenty of experience and systematization in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) practice, especially at project level studies, but it has not been fully utilized in climatic change studies, we argue. Screening and scoping in EIA are typical examples. Beset by uncertainty and interdisciplinary divisions, climatic change impact analyses and policy assessments have been dominated by very detailed studies without the prior cross-sectorial, integrative phases that would aid in focusing the issues. Here, we present a probabilistic, Bayesian impact matrix approach (BeNe-EIA) for expert judgment elicitation, using belief networks from artificial intelligence. One or more experts are used to define a Bayesian prior distribution to each of the selected attributes, and the interattribute links, of the system under study. Posterior probabilities are calculated interactively, indicating consistency of the assessment and allowing iterative analysis of the system. Illustration is given by 2 impact studies of surface waters. In addition to climatic change studies, the approach has been designed to be applicable to conventional EIA. Insufficient attention has thus far been devoted to the probabilistic nature of the assessment and potential inconsistencies in expert judgment. 相似文献
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Shyhrete Shala Karin F. Helmens Tomi P. Luoto Minna Väliranta Jan Weckström J. Sakari Salonen Peter Kuhry 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(4):311-329
This study presents a detailed analysis of geochemical and biotic proxies in a lake sediment profile to assess the effects of local and regional environmental drivers on the Holocene development of Lake Loitsana, situated in the northern boreal forest of NE Finland. Multi-proxy studies, in particular those that include a detailed plant macrofossil record, from the part of the northern boreal zone of Fennoscandia which has not been affected by treeline fluctuations, are scarce and few of these records date back to the earliest part of the Holocene. A 9-m sediment sequence of gyttja overlying silts representing the last c. 10,700 cal year, allowed for a high-resolution study with emphasis on the early to mid-Holocene lake history. The lacustrine sediments were studied using lithology, loss-on-ignition and C/N ratios, micro- and macro-fossils of aquatic and wetland taxa, diatoms, chironomids and accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating on terrestrial plant macrofossils. Our study shows that the local development at Loitsana was complex and included a distinct glacial lake phase and subsequent drainage, a history of fluvial input affected by nearby wetland expansion, and lake infilling in an eventual esker-fed shallow lake. Enhanced trophic conditions, due to morphometric eutrophication, are recorded as Glacial Lake Sokli drained and open water conditions became restricted to a relatively small Lake Loitsana depression. pH appears to have been stable throughout the Holocene with a well-buffered lake due to the local carbonatite bedrock (Sokli Carbonatite Massif). The fossil assemblage changes are best explained by a complex mixture of drivers, including water-body conditions (i.e. depth, turbidity and turbulence), rate of sediment input, and the general infilling of the lake, highlighting the need to carefully evaluate the possible influence of such local factors as palaeoenvironmental conditions are reconstructed based on aquatic proxies. 相似文献
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Chandru K Zakaria MP Anita S Shahbazi A Sakari M Bahry PS Mohamed CA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(5):950-962
The East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia faces the South China Sea and is vulnerable to oil pollution because of intense petroleum production activities in the area. The South China Sea is also a favored route for supertankers carrying crude oil to the Far East. Consequently, oil spills can occur, causing pollution and contamination in the surrounding areas. Residual oil spills stranded on coastal beaches usually end up as tar-balls. Elucidating the sources of tar-balls using a molecular marker approach is essential in assessing environmental impacts and perhaps settling legal liabilities for affected parties. This study utilizes a multimodal molecular marker approach through the use of diagnostic ratios of alkanes, hopanes, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to determine the source, distribution and weathering of tar-balls. Hopane ratios (e.g., C29/C30, and summation C31-C35/C30 ratios) were used to identify the sources of tar-balls. The weathering effects were distinguished by using alkanes, namely the unresolved complex mixture (UCM) and low molecular weight/high molecular weight (L/H) ratios. Similarly, PAHs were also used for the determination of weathering processes undergone by the tar-balls. This multimodal molecular marker gave a very strong indication of the sources of tar-balls in this study. For example, 16 out of 17 samples originated from South East Asian Crude Oil (SEACO) with one sample from Merang, Terengganu originating from North Sea Oil (Troll). The TRME-2 sample may have come from a supertanker's ballast water discharge. The second possibility is that the tar-ball may have been transported via oceanographic currents. All 'weathered' sample characterizations were based on the presence of UCM and other ratios. The multimodal molecular marker approach applied in this study has enabled us to partially understand the transport behavior of tar-balls in the marine environment and has revealed insights into the weathering process of tar-balls. 相似文献
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Stochastic virtual population analysis 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
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Knowledge of oil-induced impacts from the literature and experts were used to develop a Bayesian network to evaluate the biological consequences of an oil accident in the low-saline Gulf of Finland (GOF). Analysis was carried out for selected groups of organisms. Subnetworks were divided into subgroups according to a predicted response to oil exposure. Two scenario analyses are presented: the most probable and the worst-case accident.The impact of the most probable accident in the GOF is rather small. In most of the groups studied oil-induced long-term effects are evaluated to be minor at least from the perspective of the whole GOF. After the worst-case accident negative effects are more likely. The model predicts that the most vulnerable groups are auks and ducks. Amphipods, gulls and to a lesser extend littoral fishes and seals may show delayed recovery after an accident. Also annual plant species may be susceptible to oil-induced disturbances. 相似文献
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