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Jui Le Loh Fredolin Tangang Liew Juneng David Hein Dong-In Lee 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):191-208
This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of regional moisture convergences in the region. 相似文献
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Kak Choon Loy Prakash Chandra Sinha Juneng Liew Fredolin Tangang Mohd Lokman Husain 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):23-37
Super typhoon Durian struck the central Philippines on November 30, 2006 and southern coast of Vietnam on December 5, 2006. The reported maximum wind exceeded 250 km/h, and the central pressure was 904 hPa during the peak of the system. The typhoon brought colossal damage, both in terms of lives and in terms of properties to the Philippines and Vietnam while Thailand and Malaysia were slightly affected. The energy from the high-velocity wind and central pressure drop resulted in the generation of storm surges along the coastal region of the Philippines including its surrounding islands as well as parts of southern Vietnam. In this paper, a numerical 2D model is used to study the oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing by 2006 super typhoon Durian in the coastal regions of the Philippines and Vietnam. The initial study of this model aims to provide some useful insights before it could be used as a coastal disaster prediction system in the region of South China Sea (SCS). The atmospheric forcing for the 2D model, which includes the pressure gradient and the wind field, is generated by an empirical asymmetrical storm model. The simulated results of storm surges due to typhoon Durian at two locations lie in the range of observed data/estimates published by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). 相似文献
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This paper investigates the sensitivity of the numerical simulations of a near equatorial Typhoon Vamei (2001) to various
planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5). The numerical simulations are conducted on two domains at 45 and 15 km
grids nested in a one-way fashion. Four different PBL parameterization schemes including the Blackadar (BLK) scheme, the Burk–Thompson
(BURKT) scheme, the NCEP Eta model scheme and the NCEP medium range forecast (MRF) model scheme are investigated. Results
indicate that the intensity and propagation track of the simulated near equatorial typhoon system is not very sensitive to
the different PBL treatments. The simulated minimum central pressures and the maximum surface wind speeds differ by only 5–6 hPa
and 6–8 ms−1, respectively. Larger variations between the simulations occur during the weakening phase of the typhoon system. While all
schemes simulated the typhoon with reasonable accuracy, the ETA scheme produces the strongest storm intensity with the largest
heat exchanges over the marine environment and the highest warm moisture air content in the PBL around the core of the storm. 相似文献
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Fredolin T. Tangang Changsui Xia Fangli Qiao Liew Juneng Feng Shan 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(9):1317-1328
A wave–tide–circulation coupled model based on Princeton Ocean Model is established to study the seasonal circulation in the
Malay Peninsula Eastern Continental Shelf region. The model successfully reconstructs the observed seasonal variation of the
circulation in the region, as well as the main currents. The simulated tidal harmonic constants, sea surface temperature,
and sea surface height anomaly agree with the observations well. The model results show that the upper-layer circulation in
the region is mainly controlled by the monsoon winds, while there are two transitions in spring and fall. An anti-cyclonic
eddy is present off the Peninsular Malaysia’s east coast in summer, centered at 5°N and 105.5°E, both in the TOPEX/Poseidon
data and in the model. Numerical experiments show that the wind stress curl and bathymetry steering are responsible for its
formation. 相似文献
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The Southeast Asia rainfall (SEAR) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Niño (La Niña). Using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, it is shown that the dominant EEOF mode of SEAR anomalies evolves northeastward throughout a period from the summer when El Niño develops to spring the following year when the event weakens. This evolution is consistent with northeastward migration of the ENSO-related anomalous out going radiation field. During boreal summer (winter), the strong ENSO-related anomaly tends to reside in regions south (north) of the equator. The evolution of dominant mode of SEAR anomalies is in tandem with the evolution of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The strengthening and weakening of “boomerang-shaped” SST in western Pacific, the changing sign of anomalous SST in Java Sea and the warming in Indian Ocean and South China Sea are all part of ENSO-related changes and all are linked to SEAR anomaly. The anomalous low-level circulation associated with ENSO-related SEAR anomaly indicates the strengthening and weakening of two off-equatorial anticyclones, one over the Southern Indian Ocean and the other over the western North Pacific. Together with patterns of El Niño minus La Niña composites of various fields, it is proposed that the northeastward evolution of SEAR anomaly is basically part of the large-scale eastward evolution of ENSO-related signal in the Indo-Pacific sector. The atmosphere–ocean interaction plays an important role in this evolution. 相似文献
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Mou Leong Tan Liew Juneng Fredolin T. Tangang Ngai Weng Chan Sheau Tieh Ngai 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(8):921-933
Water scarcity issues in the Johor River Basin (JRB) could affect the populations of Malaysia and Singapore. This study provides an overview of future hydro-meteorological droughts using climate projections from an ensemble of four Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments – Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA) domain outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 periods. The climate projections were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach before being incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were used to examine the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Overall, future annual precipitation, streamflow, and maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to change by about ?44.2 to 24.3%, ?88.7 to 42.2%, 0.8 to 3.7ºC and 0.7 to 4.7ºC, respectively. The results show that the JRB is likely to receive more frequent meteorological droughts in the future. 相似文献
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The performance of different cumulus parameterization schemes in simulating the 2006/2007 southern peninsular Malaysia heavy rainfall episodes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
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A comparative study has been conducted to investigate the skill of four convection parameterization schemes, namely the Anthes–Kuo (AK), the Betts–Miller (BM), the Kain–Fritsch (KF), and the Grell (GR) schemes in the numerical simulation of an extreme precipitation episode over eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Pennsylvania State University—National Center for Atmospheric Research Center (PSU-NCAR) Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The event is a commonly occurring westward propagating tropical depression weather system during a boreal winter resulting from an interaction between a cold surge and the quasi-stationary Borneo vortex. The model setup and other physical parameterizations are identical in all experiments and hence any difference in the simulation performance could be associated with the cumulus parameterization scheme used. From the predicted rainfall and structure of the storm, it is clear that the BM scheme has an edge over the other schemes. The rainfall intensity and spatial distribution were reasonably well simulated compared to observations. The BM scheme was also better in resolving the horizontal and vertical structures of the storm. Most of the rainfall simulated by the BM simulation was of the convective type. The failure of other schemes (AK, GR and KF) in simulating the event may be attributed to the trigger function, closure assumption, and precipitation scheme. On the other hand, the appropriateness of the BM scheme for this episode may not be generalized for other episodes or convective environments. 相似文献
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Ali Mirzaei Fredolin Tangang Liew Juneng Muzneena Ahmad Mustapha Mohd Lokman Husain Mohd Fadzil Akhir 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(8):961-977
This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals. 相似文献