Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

Improving communication from managers to fishers in Europe and the US     

van Densen  Wim L. T.; McCay  Bonnie J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):811-817

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A coupled climate model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: transient multi-decadal response   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

S.-J. Kim  G. Flato  G. Boer  N. McFarlane 《Climate Dynamics》2002,19(5-6):515-537

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Subducted slabs beneath the eastern Indonesia-Tonga region: insights from tomography   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Robert Hall  Wim Spakman 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,201(2):321-336

Tomographic images of mantle structure beneath the region north and northeast of Australia show a number of anomalously fast regions. These are interpreted using a recent plate tectonic reconstruction in terms of current and former subduction systems. Several strong anomalies are related to current subduction. The inferred slab lengths and positions are consistent with Neogene subduction beneath the New Britain and Halmahera arcs, and at the Tonga and the New Hebrides trenches where there has been rapid rollback of subduction hinges since about 10 Ma. There are several deeper flat-lying anomalies which are not related to present subduction and we interpret them as former subduction zones overridden by Australia since 25 Ma. Beneath the Bird’s Head and Arafura Sea is an anomaly interpreted to be due to north-dipping subduction beneath the Philippines-Halmahera arc between 45 and 25 Ma. A very large anomaly extending from the Papuan peninsula to the New Hebrides, and from the Solomon Islands to the east Australian margin, is interpreted to be the remnant of south-dipping subduction beneath the Melanesian arc between 45 and 25 Ma. This interpretation implies that a flat-lying slab can survive for many tens of millions of years at the bottom of the upper mantle. In the lower mantle there is a huge anomaly beneath the Gulf of Carpentaria and east Papua New Guinea. This is located above the position where the tectonic model interprets a change in polarity of subduction from north-dipping to south-dipping between 45 and 25 Ma. We suggest this deep anomaly may be a slab subducted beneath eastern Australian during the Cretaceous, or subducted north of Australia during the Cenozoic before 45 Ma. The tomography also supports the tectonic interpretation which suggests little Neogene subduction beneath western New Guinea since no slab is imaged south of the New Guinea trench. However, one subduction zone in the tectonic model and many others, that associated with the Trobriand trough east of Papua New Guinea and the Miocene Maramuni arc, is not seen in the tomographic images and may require reconsideration of currently accepted tectonic interpretations.  相似文献   

Finite-difference modelling of two-dimensional elastic wave propagation in cracked media     

Vincent A. van Antwerpen  Wim A. Mulder  Gérard C. Herman 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(1):169-178

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黑河实验区地表净辐射区域分布及季节变化   总被引：22，自引：3，他引：22       下载免费PDF全文

马耀明  王介民  Massimo Menenti  Wim Bastiaanssen 《大气科学》1997,21(6):743-749

利用卫星遥感信息和地面观测资料，分析研究黑河实验区地表净辐射的区域分布及季节变化特征。结果表明，卫星遥感结合地面观测，首先可以得到较为精确的地表反射率和地表温度分布，进而得到较为合理的地表净辐射的区域分布和季节变化特征。  相似文献   

The palaeolimnology of Lake Fidler, a meromictic lake in south-west Tasmania and the significance of recent human impact     

Dominic Hodgson  Peter Tyler  Wim Vyverman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1997,18(4):313-333

Three meromictic lakes in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania possess unusual microbiological communities. Their meromixis is maintained by periodic incursions of brackish water from the nearby Gordon River which, in its lower reaches, is a salt-wedge estuary. In 1977 the construction of a dam in the middle reaches of the river restricted penetration of the salt-wedge and meromixis rapidly declined in all three lakes. A palaeolimnological study was carried out on one of the lakes, Lake Fidler, firstly to determine the history of meromixis and its associated microbiological communities, and secondly to assess whether the recent and rapid decline of meromixis is inconsistent with natural rates of development of the Gordon River meromictic lakes. One part of this study included the analysis of the stratigraphy of fossil diatoms from a 17-metre sediment core dating back 8000 yrs. Detrended Correspondence Analysis and Analog Matching were used to compare diatom species assemblages in core samples with diatom samples from a reference dataset consisting of a selection of lake and river sites in the lower Gordon River valley. Five distinct stratigraphic zones were identified in the core. These zones indicated specific stages in the development of the Gordon River lakes from river backwaters to ectogenically-maintained meromictic lakes which will, finally, become terrestrialised by encroaching rainforest. The onset of a stratified water column was identified by the emergence of a dominant freshwater algal flora which suggested that the lake had developed a mixolimnion and become meromictic ca. 2070 ± 50 ¹⁴C yrs ago. In the context of this long history of meromixis, the rapid demise in meromictic stability following construction of the dam is judged to be inconsistent with natural rates of development. The palaeolimnological studies, of which this paper is one part, prompt recommendations for a management strategy to prevent the further decay of these meromictic lakes in the World Heritage Area.  相似文献   

‘Gendered spaces’ in urban and rural contexts: An introduction     

Joos Droogleever Fortuijn  Andre Horn  Wim Ostendorf 《GeoJournal》2004,61(3):215-217

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Stratigraphic signatures of translation of thrust-sheet top basins over low-angle detachment faults   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Quintijn Clevis  Gerben de Jager  Wouter Nijman  Poppe L. de Boer 《Basin Research》2004,16(2):145-163

Abstract Low‐angle detachment faults and thrust‐sheet top basins are common features in foreland basins. However, in stratigraphic analysis their influence on sequence architecture is commonly neglected. Usually, only eustatic sea level and changing flexural subsidence are accounted for, and when deformation is considered, the emphasis is on the generation of local thrust‐flank unconformities. This study analyses the effects of detachment angle and repetitive detachment activation on stratigraphic stacking patterns in a large thrust‐sheet top basin by applying a three‐dimensional numerical model. Model experiments show that displacement over low‐angle faults (2–6°) at moderate rates (～5.0 m kyr^?1) results in a vertical uplift component sufficient to counteract the background flexural subsidence rate. Consequently, the basin‐wide accommodation space is reduced, fluvio‐deltaic systems carried by the thrust‐sheet prograde and part of the sediment supply is spilled over towards adjacent basins. The intensity of the forced regression and the interconnectedness of fluvial sheet sandstones increases with the dip angle of the detachment fault or rate of displacement. In addition, the delta plain is susceptible to the formation of incised valleys during eustatic falls because these events are less compensated by regional flexural subsidence, than they would be in the absence of fault displacement.  相似文献   

A parameterisation for the threshold shear velocity to initiate deflation of dry and wet sediment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wim M. Cornelis  Donald Gabriels  Roger Hartmann 《Geomorphology》2004,59(1-4):43

A new parameterisation for the threshold shear velocity to initiate deflation of dry and wet particles is presented. It is based on the balance of moments acting on particles at the instant of particle motion. The model hence includes a term for the aerodynamic forces, including the drag force, the lift force and the aerodynamic-moment force, and a term for the interparticle forces. The effect of gravitation is incorporated in both terms. Rather than using an implicit function for the effect of the aerodynamic forces as reported earlier in literature, a constant aerodynamic coefficient was introduced. From consideration of the van der Waals force between two particles, it was further shown that the effect of the interparticle cohesion force between two dry particles on the deflation threshold should be inversely proportional to the particle diameter squared. The interparticle force was further extended to include wet bonding forces. The latter were considered as the sum of capillary forces and adhesive forces. A model that expresses the capillary force as a function of particle diameter squared and the inverse of capillary potential was deduced from consideration of the well-known model of Fisher and the Young–Laplace equation. The adhesive force was assumed to be equal to tensile strength, and a function which is proportional to particle diameter squared and the inverse of the potential due to adhesive forces was derived. By combining the capillary-force model and the adhesive force model, the interparticle force due to wet bonding was simplified and written as a function of particle diameter squared and the inverse of matric potential. The latter was loglinearly related to the gravimetric moisture content, a relationship that is valid in the low-moisture content range that is important in the light of deflation of sediment by wind. By introducing a correction to force the relationship to converge to zero moisture content at oven dryness, the matric potential–moisture content relationship contained only one unknown model parameter, viz. moisture content at −1.5 MPa. Working out the model led to a rather simple parameterisation containing only three coefficients. Two parameters were incorporated in the term that applies to dry sediment and were determined by using experimental data as reported by Iversen and White [Sedimentology 29 (1982) 111]. The third parameter for the wet-sediment part of the model was determined from wind-tunnel experiments on prewetted sand and sandy loam aggregates. The model was validated using data from wind-tunnel experiments on the same but dry sediment, and on data obtained from simulations with the model of Chepil [Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Proc. 20 (1956) 288]. The experiments showed that soil aggregates should be treated as individual particles with a density equal to their bulk density. Furthermore, it was shown that the surface had to dry to a moisture content of about 75% of the moisture content at −1.5 MPa before deflation became sustained. The threshold shear velocities simulated with our model were found to be in good agreement with own observations and with simulations using Chepil's model.  相似文献