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ABSTRACT Based on a future temperature increase of 0.5°C and precipitation decrease of 25%, the climate elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes in 12 Andean watersheds of the Coquimbo Region, north-central Chile, was assessed. Also, the possible relationships between this elasticity and specific physiographic characteristics of the watersheds (area, average elevation, slope distribution, terrain roughness, slope orientation, vegetation cover) were studied. Climate elasticity of streamflow ranged between 0 and 2.8. Watersheds presenting higher elevations, with a fairly well-balanced distribution of slope exposure tend to exhibit lower elasticity, which could be explained by the contribution of snowfall to the hydrological regime, more significant in those watersheds. Results should be considered when downscaling climate model projections at the basin scale in mountain settings. Finally, uncertainties in the approach, given by factors such as streamflow seasonality, data availability and representativeness and watershed characteristics, and therefore the scope of the results, are discussed. 相似文献
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Gustavo M. Cruz-Bello Hallie Eakin Helda Morales Juan F. Barrera 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):103-116
This paper analyses the responses related to land use of coffee growers in Chiapas, Mexico to the impact of Hurricane Stan
(October 2005). A multi-temporal analysis of the effect on land cover was performed through the combination of unsupervised
classification of SPOT multispectral images and visual interpretation of panchromatic images (8 months previous to the hurricane,
and 2, 14, and 40 months after the hurricane). The information provided by this geographic analysis was interpreted in light
of information gathered though household surveys. Although the hurricane wrecked havoc across the region, the main impact
in the study area was in the riparian zones where the extent of the loss experienced in terms of coffee harvest and soil was
such that, even 14 months after the event, households with land in those areas were struggling to recover. Nevertheless, after
40 months, the zones that had suffered total soil loss began to support soil and vegetation, indicating the possibility of
replanting coffee in those areas. Although the hurricane occurred when the coffee sector was particularly fragile as a result
of the preceding several years of poor prices, the impact did not trigger extensive land use change. The surveys showed, however,
that people are now more informed of the risk of living and farming on the river margins and are now performing soil conservation
practices and planting trees to reduce risk. 相似文献
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Boehnhardt Hermann Barucci Antonella Delsanti Audrey De Bergh Catherine Doressoundiram Alain Romon Jennifer Dotto Elisabetta Tozzi Gianpaolo Lazzarin Monica Fornasier Sonia Peixinho Nuno Hainaut Olivier Davies John Rousselot Philippe Barrera Luis Birkle Kurt Meech Karen Ortiz JoseLuis Sekiguchi Tomohiko Watanabe Jun-ichi Thomas Nick West Richard 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2003,92(1-4):145-156
BVRI photometry of 107 TNOs and Centaurs establishes the range of spectral gradients to be between –5 to 55%/100 nm (with one exception). A cluster of very red Cubewanos is firmly identified in orbits of low inclination and eccentricity beyond 40 AU from the Sun. Further correlations between surface colours and dynamical parameters (inclination and perihelion distance) are suggested for Cubewanos and scattered disk objects, but lack complete confidence for their reality. Plutinos and Centaurs do not show any clear correlation between surface colours and orbital parameters. We present in this paper 12 spectra obtained in the visible region and nine of them for which we obtained also near infrared spectra up to 2.4 microns. A few other objects have been observed, but the data are still under reduction and analysis. The principal reported results obtained are: (i) a wide range of visible slopes; (ii) evidence for surface variations on 2001 PT13; and (iii) possible detection of few percent of water ice (1999 TC36}, 2000 EB173, 1999 DE9, 2001 PT13, 2000 QC243, 1998 SG35). 相似文献
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In a total of 181 photographic spectrograms, obtained at the Manuel Foster Observatory of the Catholic University in Santiago (Chile), the equivalent widths of the absorption lines HeI 4471 and MgII 4481 have been determined for 10 selected southern Be stars and 4 normal B-type stars. The mean equivalent widths of each star are compared to published mean values from largers samples of B stars. On the average, Be stars coincide with normal B-type stars in their equivalent width. However, a striking difference between rapidly and slowly rotating stars in their line ratios (HeI/MgII) was found, which is probably an artifact due to a systematic misclassification of spectral types of rapidly rotating B stars (v sini>200 km s–1). Six of the ten Be stars show evidence for variability in HeI and/or MgII with time-scales shorter than a few days and amplitudes up to a factor 2 in equivalent width. Line variability occurs in the entire range of projected rotation velocity (70 km s–1<v sini<350 km s–1), but seems to be restricted to spectral types B2-B4. In addition, variations at longer time-scales (years) were observed in two cases. Three of the variable stars (HR 4074, HR 4537, and Ara) present correlated variations in both lines, one ( Cen) anti-correlated variability. We interpret our results in terms of nonradial pulsations and stress the importance to study the HeI/MgII lines and their variability in a larger sample of Be, Bn, and normal B stars, including archival material in order to follow-up line variability for several decades in the past. 相似文献
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Michael J.S. Belton Karen J. Meech Steven Chesley Jana Pittichová Brian Carcich Michal Drahus Alan Harris Stephen Gillam Joseph Veverka Nicholas Mastrodemos William Owen Michael F. A’Hearn S. Bagnulo J. Bai L. Barrera Fabienne Bastien James M. Bauer J. Bedient B.C. Bhatt Hermann Boehnhardt H. Zhao 《Icarus》2011,213(1):345-368
The evolution of the spin rate of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (in 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13 year as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and from 2888 observations taken over a period of 50 days from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 ± 0.025°/dy (41.335 ± 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 ± 0.016°/dy (41.055 ± 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 ± 0.030°/dy (40.783 ± 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 ± 0.012°/dy (40.827 ± 0.002 h) in the interval 2006–2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 ± 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 ± 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 ± 0.003°/dy/dy at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 dy before impact), which provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations.The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. (Thomas et al. [2007]. Icarus 187, 4–15) pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180° error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 at 20:42.We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3–2.5 × 107 kg m2 s?2 acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the Sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than ～1° per perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque occurs before perihelion are in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up. 相似文献
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What drives national adaptation? A global assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Lea Berrang-Ford James D. Ford Alexandra Lesnikowski Carolyn Poutiainen Magda Barrera S. Jody Heymann 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):441-450
That the climate is changing and societies will have to adapt is now unequivocal, with adaptation becoming a core focus of climate policy. Our understanding of the challenges, needs, and opportunities for climate change adaptation has advanced significantly in recent years yet remains limited. Research has identified and theorized key determinants of adaptive capacity and barriers to adaptation, and more recently begun to track adaptation in practice. Despite this, there is negligible research investigating whether and indeed if adaptive capacity is translating into actual adaptation action. Here we test whether theorized determinants of adaptive capacity are associated with adaptation policy outcomes at the national level for 117 nations. We show that institutional capacity, in particular measures of good governance, are the strongest predictors of national adaptation policy. Adaptation at the national level is limited in countries with poor governance, and in the absence of good governance other presumed determinants of adaptive capacity show limited effect on adaptation. Our results highlight the critical importance of institutional good governance as a prerequisite for national adaptation. Other elements of theorized adaptive capacity are unlikely to be sufficient, effective, or present at the national level where national institutions and governance are poor. 相似文献
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Summary Over the last 25 years the term “cold pool” has come to be used in many spheres as a synonym for floods. This has given rise
to a major confusion that has even moved into international scientific and technical circles. In this paper we analyse how
the concept of “cold air pool” has evolved from when it was defined at the beginning of the 20th century down to the present
day, in which the Spanish term “DANA” (similar to a cut-off low) has been introduced in order to avoid existing confusions.
In the course of the paper we take account of cold air pool genesis and their thermal and dynamic characteristics, and we
discuss the factors that have led to them being identified (erroneously) with heavy rainfall events. The study takes as its
basis a systematic analysis of all the cold air pools recorded in Europe, and particularly in the Iberian Peninsula, over
the period 1974–1983, as well as in studies of the floods recorded in eastern Spain since 1950 until nowadays. The discussion
done on the basis of this accurate analysis leads to the identification of a cold air pool as a type cut-off low (COL) and
justifying the use of this more generic term when a structure like this is present in a heavy rainfall event. For a better
illustration of the previous discussion and understanding of the role of COLs in intense rainfall events, we present the episode
of September 1971 in Catalonia, in which over 400 mm were recorded. The analysis was carried out with the MM5 initialised
with the ERA-40 re-analyses. The results show that the role of COLs in the heavy rainfall episodes recorded in Spain is mainly
dynamic, both in terms of the circulation they create at low levels and the potential vorticity anomaly generated. This circulation
draws in very warm, moist and potentially unstable air perpendicularly to the coast and the littoral mountain chains. The
factor of thermal instability, owing to the presence of cold air at medium and higher levels, shows itself to be more important
in zones where this warm moist advection at low levels is not as significant as in the Mediterranean zone. 相似文献
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Juan Armando Flores de la Torre Kerry Mitchell Magdalena Samantha Ramos Gómez Alma Lilian Guerrero Barrera Laura Yamamoto Flores Francisco Javier Avelar González 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(10):386
Concentrations of Pb and Zn, plant uptake of these metals, the influence of the plants’ growth on the physicochemical properties and metal concentrations in the tailings of an abandoned 300-year-old mine tailing dam in Zacatecas, Mexico were investigated. Tailings were found to be heavily contaminated, with average levels of 2621 ± 53 and 3827 ± 83 mg/kg for Pb and Zn, respectively (maximum concentrations of 8466 ± 116 and 12,475 ± 324 mg/kg, respectively), exceeding international standards. Though physico-chemical conditions (pH, conductivity, redox potential, moisture, organic matter, nitrate, nitrite, ammonium nitrogen, total nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfates) do not favor the development of vegetation, some plants have adapted to these adverse conditions. Moreover, there was a significant reduction of Pb and Zn concentration in the rhizosphere (between 10–78% for Pb and 18–62% for Zn, depending on plant species). Sporobolus airoides showed average biomass concentrations of 173 ± 2 and 313 ± 6 mg/kg, for Pb and Zn, respectively; which implies a risk for mobility and possible incorporation into the food chain. Barcleyanthus salicifolius, Asclepsias linaria and Cortaderia selloana on the other hand, showed average biomass concentrations of 28 ± 3 and 121 ± 5 mg/kg of Pb and Zn, respectively, thus representing a lower biomagnification risk. The effect of these plants to reduce metal concentrations in the rhizosphere, improve physico-chemical conditions in metal polluted substrates, but with limited metal accumulation in biomass, suggests that they can be evaluated for use in stabilizing metal polluted tailings. 相似文献