排序方式： 共有20条查询结果，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Omid Ghorbanzadeh Hashem Rostamzadeh Thomas Blaschke Khalil Gholaminia Jagannath Aryal 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(2):497-517
In this paper, we evaluate the predictive performance of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using six different membership functions (MF). In combination with a geographic information system (GIS), ANFIS was used for land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSM) in the Marand plain, northwest Iran. This area is prone to droughts and low groundwater levels and subsequent land subsidence damages. Therefore, a land subsidence inventory database was created from an extensive field survey. Areas of land subsidence or areas showing initial signs of subsidence were used for training, while one-third of inventory database were reserved for testing and validation. The inventory database randomly divided into three different folds of the same size. One of the folds was chosen for testing and validation. Other two folds was used for training. This process repeated for every fold in the inventory dataset. Thereafter, land subsidence related factors, such as hydrological and topographical factors, were prepared as GIS layers. Areas susceptible to land subsidence were then analyzed using the ANFIS approach, and land subsidence susceptibility maps were created, whereby six different MFs were applied. Lastly, the results derived from each MF were validated with those areas of the land subsidence database that were not used for training. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were drawn for all LSSMs, and the areas under the curves were calculated. The ROC analyses for the six LSSMs yielded very high prediction values for two out of the six methods, namely the difference of DsigMF (0.958) and GaussMF (0.951). The integration of ANFIS and GIS generally led to high LSSM prediction accuracies. This study demonstrated that the choice of training dataset and the MF significantly affects the results. 相似文献
2.
Binil Aryal 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2011,11(3)
We present an analysis of the winding sense(S and Z-shapes) of 1 621 field galaxies that have radial velocity between 3 000 km s-1 and 5 000 km s-1.The preferred alignments of S-and Z-shaped galaxies are studied using chi-square,autocorrelation and Fourier series tests.We classify all the galaxies into 32 subsamples and notice a good agreement between the position angle(PA) distribution of the S-and Zshaped galaxies.The homogeneous distribution of the S-and Z-shaped galaxies is more noticeable for the late-... 相似文献
3.
The decline or loss of traditional social- ecological systems may induce adverse effects to the societies and ecosystems. Transhumance, the recurring and seasonal movement of grazing livestock, is increasingly constrained by a numbers of factors including policy, land use and soeio-economic changes in Nepal. To explore how these changes have affected the transhumance, this study investigated transhumance at the Langtang valley in central Nepal. The specific objectives of this study were to determine the herd size and composition, spatial-temporal patterns and to identify the major drivers of the system and the system changes. Data were collected from field study comprising semi-structured interviews with the herders, focus group discussions, key informants survey, and observations of rangeland and livestock management systems. The study revealed that the transhumanee system in the Langtang is influenced by two types of drivers. In one hand, traditional practices are contributing to the sustainability of the system. On the other hand, the grazing patterns and adaptive responses are strongly influenced by changes in government policies, socioeconomic and cultural transformation, livestock productivity, markets, rangeland conditions and climate change. The findings of this study help with the development and implementation of transhumance management policy for the sustainability. 相似文献
4.
We present an analysis of the spatial orientations of 1315 galaxies in 10 Abell clusters of BM type II–III (type II–III in the Bautz–Morgan system). It is found that the spin-vector orientations of the galaxies in six clusters (Abell 168, 426, 1035, 1227, 1367 and 1904) tend to lie parallel to the Local Supercluster (LSC) plane. The spin-vector projections of galaxies in six clusters (Abell 168, 1020, 1035, 1227, 1904 and 1920) are found to be oriented perpendicular with respect to the direction of the LSC centre. Three clusters (Abell 1920, 2255 and 2256) show a bimodal orientation: spin vectors tend to be oriented both parallel and perpendicular to the LSC plane. No dependence of radial velocity, distance and cluster magnitude on galaxy orientation is noticed. In a comparison with previous work, we noticed that the anisotropy might increase from early-type (BM type I) to late-type (BM types II–III and III) clusters. We notice a vanishing angular momentum for the less massive galaxy clusters (richness class 0). A significant alignment of the angular momenta of galaxies for massive clusters, e.g. the core of the Shapley Supercluster (richness class 4, M > 1015 M⊙ ), is found. 相似文献
5.
By systematically searching regions around planetary nebulae (PNe) for signs of interactions of their precursors’ wind with
ambient matter we found a number of huge IRAS dust structures. Some of them may be chance projections, but a few appear to
be real, like those around NGC 6826 and NGC 2899. In the case of NGC 6826 we noticed a giant (∼2°) bipolar dust emission,
whose axis is along the proper motion of the central star. The PN itself is offset in the direction of motion both as to the
center of this ∼30 pc large dust structure and to the center of a similarly large new Hα nebula. NGC 2899 was found in the center of a 14×11 pc quadrupolar cavity, whose directions of axes coincide with the directions
of the main axes of the optical PN. In both cases, the formation of these structures appears to have commenced in the asymptotic
giant branch (AGB) phase. 相似文献
6.
We present an analysis of the orientations of 1433 galaxies found in the region 15h 48m ≤α(2000) ≤ 19h 28m , −68°≤δ(2000) ≤−62° . In this region we investigated three Abell clusters (S0794, S0797, S0805) of richness Class 0 and the Triangulum Australis cluster. Our aim is to examine non-random effects in galaxy orientations in clusters. In addition, we classified the investigated galaxies into subsamples on the basis of their axial ratio, major diameter and morphology. The spin vector orientations of total galaxies in the investigated region is found to be random. No preferred orientation is found in the clusters. We could not note any morphological dependence of the galaxy orientations in our samples. No preferred orientations can be seen for the spiral galaxies. The morphologically unidentified galaxies, galaxies having major diameters of <47 arcsec, and the nearly edge-on galaxies ( b / a < 0.5, 0.4 < b / a ≤ 0.5) show anisotropy: spin vectors of galaxies tend to be oriented perpendicular to the Local Supercluster plane and spin vector projections tend to point radially with respect to the Virgo cluster centre. 相似文献
7.
Climate change vulnerability depends on who you are, where you are and what you do. The indigenous communities who primarily depend on natural resources for subsistence livelihoods are among the first and most affected by climate change. Climate models have predicted pronounced warming in high altitude regions of the Himalayas. The transhumant communities of the Himalayas follow traditional lifestyles based on seasonal livestock rearing and subsistence agriculture. There is however, no information on how vulnerable transhumant communities are to climate change, and how vulnerability of transhumant herders differs across the mountainous areas of Nepal. Based on semi-structured interviews with transhumant herders and using the IPCC climate change vulnerability framework, this study assessed and compared the vulnerability of transhumant communities from three districts representing Eastern, Central and Western mountainous region of Nepal. The results showed that the livelihood vulnerability and the climate change vulnerability differ across sites; both of them having lowest index values in the Central region. The vulnerability dimensions viz. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are largely influenced by diversity in livelihood strategies, income sources and crops, and access to food, water and health facilities. The findings will inform the design of policies and programmes to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity of indigenous communities in general and the transhumant communities of the Himalayas in particular. 相似文献
8.
Achyut Aryal Dianne Brunton David Raubenheimer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):517-529
The Trans-Himalaya region boasts an immense biodiversity which includes several threatened species and supports the livelihood of local human populations. Our aim in this study was to evaluate the impact of recent climate change on the biodiversity and human inhabitants of the upper Mustang region of the Trans-Himalaya, Nepal. We found that the average annual temperature in the upper Mustang region has increased by 0.13 °C per year over the last 23 years; a higher annual temperature increase than experienced in other parts of Himalaya. A predictive model suggested that the mean annual temperature will double by 2161 to reach 20 °C in the upper Mustang region. The combined effects of increased temperature and diminished snowfall have resulted in a reduction in the area of land suitable for agriculture. Most seriously affected are Samjung village (at 4,100 m altitude) and Dhey village (at 3,800 m) in upper Mustang, where villagers have been forced to relocate to an area with better water availability. Concurrent with the recent change in climate, there have been substantial changes in vegetation communities. Between 1979 and 2009, grasslands and forests in the Mustang district have diminished by 11 and 42 %, respectively, with the tree line having shifted towards higher elevation. Further, grasses and many shrub species are no longer found in abundance at higher elevations and consequently blue sheep (Pseduois nayaur) move to forage at lower elevations where they encounter and raid human crops. The movement of blue sheep attracts snow leopard (Panthera uncia) from their higher-elevation habitats to lower sites, where they encounter and depredate livestock. Increased crop raiding by blue sheep and depredations of livestock by snow leopard have impacted adversely on the livelihoods of local people. 相似文献
9.
This paper introduces a concept of ‘effective length’ in hillslopes to define the effective area influencing the runoff‐producing saturated zones of a hillslope or catchment. This effective area of a catchment usually is less than that given by its physical boundaries, particularly in regions where the total potential evaporation exceeds total rainfall on an annual basis. In this paper, expressions for effective lengths in hillslopes with different scale, shape and soil properties are derived for given climatic conditions. The influence of these variables on effective length is investigated. It is shown that, for a given rainfall frequency and soil parameters, the effective length changes with the planform geometry and profile shape of a hillslope; it is also a function of the ratio of available travel opportunity time to the hillslope's scale response time. The application of the concept to three natural catchments, subdivided into a number of simple hillslopes, is described. It is shown that, for these three test catchments and over 24 years of record, rarely would the entire catchment areas contribute to flow at the respective outlets. The implications of the concept of effective length for several land‐use practices, such as clearing for forest for greater water yield, and planting trees for salinity control, are discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.