Statistical cosmology with quadratic density fields     

Peter Watts  Peter Coles 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(3):806-815

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A Faraday rotation template for the Galactic sky     

Patrick Dineen  Peter Coles 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,362(2):403-410

Using a set of compilations of measurements for extragalactic radio sources, we construct all-sky maps of the Faraday rotation produced by the Galactic magnetic field. In order to generate the maps, we treat the radio source positions as a kind of 'mask' and construct combinations of spherical harmonic modes that are orthogonal on the masked sky. As long as relatively small multipoles are used, the resulting maps are quite stable to changes in the selection criteria for the sources, and show clearly the structure of the local Galactic magnetic field. We also suggest the use of these maps as templates for cosmic microwave background (CMB) foreground analysis, illustrating the idea with a cross-correlation analysis between the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP ) data and our maps. We find a significant cross-correlation, indicating the presence of a significant residual contamination.  相似文献   

A shipborne magnetic survey in Hudson Bay     

G. V. Haines  R. L. Coles 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1982,5(3):273-300

A marine magnetic total-field survey of Hudson Bay was conducted from 1975 to 1978. Approximately 62 000 line-km of data, or 35 000 five-minute averages, were acquired. The data were corrected for secular variation by means of a polynomial in latitude, longitude, and time, first fitted to annual mean differences from nine observatories and then integrated over time. The data were corrected for diurnal and transient variations by means of a linear interpolation, over geomagnetic latitude, of running hourly mean values from two neighbouring magnetic stations (numbering seven in all). Crossover differences are analysed in terms of a mixture of normal distributions resulting from the intermittent transient variations, and indicate the effectiveness of the corrections. The variance of the data is reduced, as a result of the corrections, by 87% during quiet periods and by 53% during disturbed periods, the weighted variance being reduced by 66%. Navigational accuracy is estimated, from a novel method utilizing crossover differences and field gradients, to be approximately 300 m. Anomalies are presented in profile form, and discussed briefly.Contribution from the Earth Physics Branch No. 973.  相似文献   

The Potential for Environmentally Sound Development of Marine Deposits of Potassic and Phosphatic Minerals Offshore, Southern Africa     

S. K. P. Coles  C. I. Wright  D. A. Sinclair  P. Van den Bossche 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2002,20(2):87-110

Extensive potassium and phosphorous-rich mineralization occurs on the outer continental shelf of the southern and west coasts of South Africa and Nambia. This article reviews the potential of exploiting these deposits in an environmentally sound manner for the manufacture of fertilizer. At present, reserves of potash and phosphate fertilizer are exploited from terresterial deposits, the majority being surface mined. The use of fertilizer in South Africa has shown no growth in the past 13 years, and, in some years, usage has even declined. On average, over the last decade, South Africa has consumed 2 million Mt of fertilizer (including nitrogen) per annum, the vast majority of phosphate fertilizer being produced by FOSKOR from the Phalaborwa Igneous Complex. Potash fertilizer is imported into South Africa. Although fertilizer consumption is expected to decrease in the short-term, there are good future prospects for the domestic and international fertilizer market. Considerable research into both glauconitic (containing K 2 O) and phosphatic deposits along the southern African continental shelf indicate that these sedimentary deposits have a complex genesis and mineralization. Of the total K 2 O reserves of 1300 million Mt on the southern African margin, 1000 million Mt is located off the southern African west coast, and the remainder situated on the Agulhas Bank. The largest glauconite concentration ( ±300 million Mt K 2 O) off southern Africa lies west of Saldanha Bay, South Africa. The distribution of P 2 O 5 off southern Africa is dominated by the vast deposit between Walvis Bay and Luderitz, Nambia. This reserve is estimated to contain 1000 million Mt of greater than 5% P 2 O 5 in a relatively small area of about 10000 km2. The phosphorite deposit south of Saldanha Bay constitutes a reserve of ±3500 million Mt of apatite and the deposit on the Agulhas Bank comprises 5500 million Mt. The phosphate deposit off Saldanha Bay occurs as an extensive, low to medium grade deposit. Although vast resources of potash and phosphatic minerals occur along the southern African outer continental shelf the expensive nature of marine exploitation may render most of these deposits, especially the phosphates, subeconomic. The low price of fertilizer andextensive natureontheonland deposits, although confined to asmallnumber of countries, mean that it will not be financially viable to extract these deposits. Assuming high grade glauconitic sand with the right composition can be located, the high market price indicates good future prospects for these potash deposits.  相似文献   

EISCAT/CRRES observations: nightside ionospheric ion outflow and oxygen-rich substorm injections     

N. G. J. Gazey  M. Lockwood  M. Grande  C. H. Perry  P. N. Smith  S. Coles  A. D. Aylward  R. J. Bunting  H. Opgenoorth  B. Wilken 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,14(10):1032-1043

We present combined observations made near midnight by the EISCAT radar, all-sky cameras and the combined released and radiation efects satellite (CRRES) shortly before and during a substorm. In particular, we study a discrete, equatorward-drifting auroral arc, seen several degrees poleward of the onset region. The arc passes through the field-aligned beam of the EISCAT radar and is seen to be associated with a considerable upflow of ionospheric plasma. During the substorm, the CRRES satellite observed two major injections, 17 min apart, the second of which was dominated by O⁺ ions. We show that the observed are was in a suitable location in both latitude and MLT to have fed O⁺ ions into the second injection and that the upward flux of ions associated with it was sufficient to explain the observed injection. We interpret these data as showing that arcs in the nightside plasma-sheet boundary layer could be the source of O⁺ ions energised by a dipolarisation of the mid- and near-Earth tail, as opposed to ions ejected from the dayside ionosphere in the cleft ion fountain.  相似文献   

Partnership behavior in disaster relief operations: a case study comparison of the responses to the tornado in Joplin,Missouri and Hurricane Sandy along the Jersey Coast     

John Coles  Jing Zhang  Jun Zhuang 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):625-647

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A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

S. A. Sisson  L. R. Pericchi  S. G. Coles 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(4):296-306

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.  相似文献   

Interplanetary scintillation observations of interaction regions in the solar wind     

A. R. Breen  P. J. Moran  C. A. Varley  W. P. Wilkinson  P. J. S. Williams  W. A. Coles  A. Lecinski  J. Markkanen 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(10):1265-1282

Co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) between fast and slow streams of plasma are a prominent feature of the solar wind. Measurements of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) using the three widely separated antennas of the EISCAT facility have been used to detect the compression regions at the leading edges of interaction regions and to determine the location and velocity of the structure. Observations show that interaction regions have developed as close to the Sun as 25–30 solar radii, a result supported by theoretical modelling which shows that the conditions needed for CIRs to develop exist inside 30 solar radii.  相似文献   

Modelling the X-ray cluster dipole and cluster contribution to the soft X-ray background     

V.Kolokotronis  M.Plionis  P.Coles  S.Borgani 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,295(1):19-32

We investigate the sampling and dipole convergence properties of flux-limited samples of mock X-ray clusters in relation to their underlying 'parent' cluster distribution. To this purpose, we resort to numerical simulations of the cluster distribution and extract samples resembling the main observational features of X-ray selected cluster samples. The flux-limited samples, being quite sparse, underestimate the amplitude of the 'parent' cluster dipole by ≈ 15 per cent on average for Local Group-like observers. However, the general shapes of their dipole amplitude profiles are in relatively good agreement. We also calculate the expected contribution of clusters, selected according to the relevant criteria, to the soft (i.e. 0.1–2.4 keV) extragalactic X-ray background (XRB), using the ESO Key Project X-ray luminosity function, assuming a flat universe with vanishing cosmological constant. We obtain a value of about 10 per cent of the observed XRB flux.  相似文献   

Dispersion measure variations and their effect on precision pulsar timing     

X. P. You  G. Hobbs  W. A. Coles  R. N. Manchester  R. Edwards  M. Bailes  J. Sarkissian  J. P. W. Verbiest  W. van Straten  A. Hotan  S. Ord  F. Jenet  N. D. R. Bhat  A. Teoh 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,378(2):493-506

We present an analysis of the variations seen in the dispersion measures (DMs) of 20-ms pulsars observed as part of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array project. We carry out a statistically rigorous structure function analysis for each pulsar and show that the variations seen for most pulsars are consistent with those expected for an interstellar medium characterized by a Kolmogorov turbulence spectrum. The structure functions for PSRs J1045−4509 and J1909−3744 provide the first clear evidence for a large inner scale, possibly due to ion–neutral damping. We also show the effect of the solar wind on the DMs and show that the simple models presently implemented into pulsar timing packages cannot reliably correct for this effect. For the first time we clearly show how DM variations affect pulsar timing residuals and how they can be corrected in order to obtain the highest possible timing precision. Even with our presently limited data span, the residuals (and all parameters derived from the timing) for six of our pulsars have been significantly improved by correcting for the DM variations.  相似文献