Longterm Prediction of Solar Activity Using the Combined Method   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hanslmeier  Arnold  Denkmayr  Klaus  Weiss  Peter 《Solar physics》1999,184(1):213-218

The Combined Method is a non-parametric regression technique for long-term prediction of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Starting from a solar minimum, a prediction of the succeeding maximum is obtained by using a dynamo-based relation between the geomagnetic aa index and succeeding solar maxima. Then a series of predictions is calculated by computing the weighted average of past cycles of similar level. This technique leads to a good prediction performance, particularly in the ascending phase of the solar cycle where purely statistical methods tend to be inaccurate. For cycle 23 the combined method predicts a maximum of 160 (in terms of smoothed sunspot number) early in the year 2000.  相似文献