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Guinevere Kauffmann Timothy M. Heckman Simon D. M. White Stéphane Charlot Christy Tremonti Jarle Brinchmann Gustavo Bruzual Eric W. Peng Mark Seibert Mariangela Bernardi Michael Blanton Jon Brinkmann Francisco Castander Istvan Csábai Masataka Fukugita Zeljko Ivezic Jeffrey A. Munn Robert C. Nichol Nikhil Padmanabhan Aniruddha R. Thakar David H. Weinberg Donald York 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(1):33-53
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In most lakes, phosphorus (P) is the nutrient controlling the trophic state. Thus, for effective control of eutrophication, the uncertainty in P-loading should be encoded as a probability density function (pdf). Specifically, the pdf of P-loading Y from non-point agricultural sources is sought by means of an event-based stochastic model.P-loading events are triggered by precipitation events (X1, X2, T), in which X1 is the rainfall amount, X2 the duration, and T the interarrival time between events. (X1, X2) are dependent random variables, while T is assumed to be exponentially distributed. The precipitation event causes runoff, which carries dissolved P into the lake with a concentration C1 and sediment yield, Z, which carries fixed or sorbed P into the lake in a fraction C2 of Z. Seasonal loading of P is calculated by adding random numbers of random variables. The model accounts separately for dissolved P and sorbed P. Explicit expressions are given for the mean and variance of each type of P-loadings. The case study of a sub-watershed of Lake Balaton, Hungary, is used to illustrate the methodology. Precipitation data, empirical rainfall-runoff-sediment yield relationships and a small number of observations of events are used to calibrate the model and estimate the means and variances of loading per event and per season. Then a simulation method is used to estimate complete pdf of these random variables. Use of the model for alternative methods of controlling P-loading is briefly discussed, as well as the economics of control. 相似文献
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Bianca Mitrică Istvan Bogardi Eugen Mitrică Irena Mocanu Marin Minciună 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2017,71(1):12-29
The article examines the risk of water shortages due to the climate change on Leu-Rotunda Plain, which is part of Oltenia Plain in Romania. The region has been exposed to several extreme climatic phenomena, mostly droughts, which has created several problems related to water quality and quantity. The authors defined climate change scenarios using two regional climate models. Water resources under climate change were estimated by a regional numerical groundwater model covering a deep aquifer. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, was used to estimate water supply, water demand, and the consequences of water shortages. The results of the study revealed significant vulnerability in the water supply, a limited territorial expansion of sewerage networks, an expected increase in households’ demand, an expected increase in industrial and services water demand, a relatively stable demand for water for livestock farming, and an important water shortage in the study area. The authors conclude by highlighting a set of actions to mitigate the risk of the potential crisis. 相似文献
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Improved Analyses and Forecasts With AIRS Temperature Retrievals Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this paper we investigate the impact of the Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals on data assimilation and the resulting forecasts using the four-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation scheme and a reduced resolution version of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). Our results indicate that the AIRS temperature retrievals have a significant and consistent positive impact in the Southern Hemispheric extratropics on both analyses and forecasts, which is found not only in the temperature field but also in other variables. In tropics and the Northern Hemispheric extratropics these impacts are smaller, but are still generally positive or neutral. 相似文献
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François Bache Speranta‐Maria Popescu Marina Rabineau Christian Gorini Jean‐Pierre Suc Georges Clauzon Jean‐Louis Olivet Jean‐Loup Rubino Mihaela Carmen Melinte‐Dobrinescu Ferran Estrada Laurent Londeix Rolando Armijo Bertrand Meyer Laurent Jolivet Gwénaël Jouannic Estelle Leroux Daniel Aslanian Antonio Tadeu Dos Reis Ludovic Mocochain Nikola Dumurdžanov Ivan Zagorchev Vesna Lesić Dragana Tomić M. Namık Çağatay Jean‐Pierre Brun Dimitrios Sokoutis Istvan Csato Gülsen Ucarkus Ziyadin Çakır 《Basin Research》2012,24(2):125-153
The Messinian Salinity Crisis is well known to have resulted from a significant drop of the Mediterranean sea level. Considering both onshore and offshore observations, the subsequent reflooding is generally thought to have been very sudden. We present here offshore seismic evidence from the Gulf of Lions and re‐visited onshore data from Italy and Turkey that lead to a new concept of a two‐step reflooding of the Mediterranean Basin after the Messinian Salinity Crisis. The refilling was first moderate and relatively slow accompanied by transgressive ravinement, and later on very rapid, preserving the subaerial Messinian Erosional Surface. The amplitude of these two successive rises of sea level has been estimated at ≤500 m for the first rise and 600–900 m for the second rise. Evaporites from the central Mediterranean basins appear to have been deposited principally at the beginning of the first step of reflooding. After the second step, which preceeded the Zanclean Global Stratotype Section and Point, successive connections with the Paratethyan Dacic Basin, then the Adriatic foredeep, and finally the Euxinian Basin occurred, as a consequence of the continued global rise in sea level. A complex morphology with sills and sub‐basins led to diachronous events such as the so‐called ‘Lago Mare’.This study helps to distinguish events that were synchronous over the entire Mediterranean realm, such as the two‐step reflooding, from those that were more local and diachronous. In addition, the shoreline that marks the transition between these two steps of reflooding in the Provence Basin provides a remarkable palaeogeographical marker for subsidence studies. 相似文献
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Zajacz Zoltan; Kovacs Istvan; Szabo Csaba; Halter Werner; Pettke Thomas 《Journal of Petrology》2007,48(5):853-883
Olivine-clinopyroxenite xenoliths exhumed in alkali basalts(sensu lato) in the Nógrád–GömörVolcanic Field (NGVF), northern Hungary, contain abundant silicatemelt inclusions. Geothermobarometric calculations indicate thatthese xenoliths crystallized as cumulates in the upper mantlenear the Moho. These cumulate xenoliths are considered to representa period of Moho underplating by mafic alkaline magmas priorto the onset of Late Tertiary alkaline volcanism in the Carpathian–Pannonianregion. The major and trace element compositions of silicatemelt inclusions in olivine display an evolutionary trend characterizedby a strong decrease in CaO/Al2O3. The parental melt of thecumulates was a basanite formed by low-degree ( 2%) partialmelting of a garnet peridotite source. The compositional trendof the silicate melt inclusions, textural features, and modellingwith pMELTS show that the parental melt evolved by major clinopyroxeneand minor olivine crystallization followed by the appearanceof amphibole simultaneously with significant resorption of theearlier clinopyroxene and olivine. The resulting residual meltwas highly enriched in Al2O3, alkalis and most incompatibletrace elements. This type of melt is likely to infiltrate andreact with surrounding mantle peridotite as a metasomatic agent.It might also form high-pressure pegmatite-like bodies in themantle that might be the source of the amphibole and sanidinemegacrysts also found in the alkali basalts of the NGVF. Preferentialremelting of the later-formed (i.e. lower temperature) mineralassemblage (amphibole, sanidine, residual glass) might havesignificantly contaminated the host alkaline mafic lavas, increasingtheir Al2O3 and total alkali contents and, therefore, reducingtheir MgO, FeO and CaO content. KEY WORDS: silicate melt inclusions; geochemistry; petrogenesis; Nógrád–Gömör Volcanic Field; Pannonian Basin 相似文献