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Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month, while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region. Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature, leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary conditions from another global climate model, a different emission scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate sources of uncertainties in climate change projections. 相似文献
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Hilkka Pellikka Jenni Rauhala Kimmo K. Kahma Tapani Stipa Hanna Boman Antti Kangas 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(1):197-215
We present four case studies of exceptional wave events of meteorological origin, observed on the Finnish coast in the summers of 2010 and 2011. Eyewitnesses report unusually rapid and strong sea-level variations (up to 1 m in 5–15 min) and strong oscillating currents during these events. High-resolution sea-level measurements confirm the eyewitness observations, but the oscillations recorded by tide gauges mostly have a considerably smaller amplitude. The oscillations coincide with sudden jumps in surface air pressure at coastal observation stations, related to the passage of squall lines or gust fronts. These fronts propagate above the sea at a resonant speed, allowing efficient energy transfer between the atmospheric disturbance and the sea wave that it generates. Thus, we interpret the observed sea-level oscillations as small meteotsunamis, long tsunami-like waves generated by meteorological processes and resonance effects. 相似文献
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A family of high-velocity stars (Energy-19000 km2/sec2, angular momentum 1150 kpc km/sec) were computed using Innanen's (1966) mass model of the Galaxy. The stars were set initially on the curve of zero velocity. The inclination diagram indicates a quasi-isolating third integral. 相似文献
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Mauri J. Valtonen Kimmo A. Innanen Leena Tähtinen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1984,107(2):209-222
Numerical simulations have been performed in order to study the gravitational interaction between the outlying population of the Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The following effects have been noted: (1) halo objects are partially removed from the orbital distance of the LMC such that a local minimum is created in the radial density profile; (2) a large number of halo objects go into escape orbits. This possibility makes the determination of the mass of the Galaxy by virial theorem arguments unreliable; (3) the orbit of the LMC decays faster than what one would expect on the basis of the classical dynamical friction calculation. The excess friction derives from three-body effects, which are not accounted for in the classical dynamical friction. Finally, the fates of globular clusters and dwarf galaxies near the Galaxy and the LMC are discussed. 相似文献
7.
Characterizing the degree of amplitude‐variation‐with‐offset nonlinearity in seismic physical modelling reflection data 下载免费PDF全文
The nonlinearity of the seismic amplitude‐variation‐with‐offset response is investigated with physical modelling data. Nonlinearity in amplitude‐variation‐with‐offset becomes important in the presence of large relative changes in acoustic and elastic medium properties. A procedure for pre‐processing physical modelling reflection data is enacted on the reflection from a water‐plexiglas boundary. The resulting picked and processed amplitudes are compared with the exact solutions of the plane‐wave Zoeppritz equations, as well as approximations that are first, second, and third order in , , and . In the low angle range of 0°–20°, the third‐order plane‐wave approximation is sufficient to capture the nonlinearity of the amplitude‐variation‐with‐offset response of a liquid‐solid boundary with , , and ρ contrasts of 1485–2745 m/s, 0–1380 m/s, and 1.00–1.19 gm/cc respectively, to an accuracy value of roughly 1%. This is in contrast to the linear Aki–Richards approximation, which is in error by as much as 25% in the same angle range. Even‐order nonlinear corrective terms are observed to be primarily involved in correcting the angle dependence of , whereas the odd‐order nonlinear terms are involved in determining the absolute amplitude‐variation‐with‐offset magnitudes. 相似文献
8.
Larry Lines Joe Wong Kris Innanen Fereidoon Vasheghani Carl Sondergeld Sven Treitel Tadeusz Ulrych 《Geophysical Prospecting》2014,62(1):190-195
While seismic reflection amplitudes are generally determined by real acoustical impedance contrasts, there has been recent interest in reflections due to contrasts in seismic‐Q. Herein we compare theoretical and modelled seismic reflection amplitudes for two different cases of material contrasts. In case A, we examine reflections from material interfaces that have a large contrast in real‐valued impedance () with virtually no contrast in seismic‐Q. In case B, we examine reflections from material interfaces that have virtually no contrast in but that have very large seismic‐Q contrasts. The complex‐valued reflection coefficient formula predicts non‐zero seismic reflection amplitudes for both cases. We choose physical materials that typify the physics of both case A and case B. Physical modelling experiments show significantly large reflections for both cases – with the reflections in the two cases being phase shifted with respect to each other, as predicted theoretically. While these modelling experiments show the existence of reflections that are predicted by theory, there are still intriguing questions regarding the size of the Q‐contrast reflections, the existence of large Q‐contrast reflections in reservoir rocks and the possible application of Q‐reflection analysis to viscosity estimation in heavy oilfields. 相似文献
9.
Mads Faurschou Knudsen Peter Riisager Fabio Donadini Ian Snowball Raimund Muscheler Kimmo Korhonen Lauri J. Pesonen 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,272(1-2):319-329
All absolute paleointensity data published in peer-reviewed journals were recently compiled in the GEOMAGIA50 database. Based on the information in GEOMAGIA50, we reconstruct variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the past 50 kyr, with a focus on the Holocene period. A running-window approach is used to determine the axial dipole moment that provides the optimal least-squares fit to the paleointensity data, whereas associated error estimates are constrained using a bootstrap procedure. We subsequently compare the reconstruction from this study with previous reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole moment, including those based on cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C). This comparison generally lends support to the axial dipole moments obtained in this study. Our reconstruction shows that the evolution of the dipole moment was highly dynamic, and the recently observed rates of change (5% per century) do not appear unique. We observe no apparent link between the occurrence of archeomagnetic jerks and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment, suggesting that archeomagnetic jerks most likely represent drastic changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic dipole axis or periods characterized by large secular variation of the non-dipole field. This study also shows that the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment was high compared to that of the preceding 40 kyr, and that 4 · 1022 Am2 appears to represent a critical threshold below which geomagnetic excursions and reversals occur. 相似文献
10.
Symplectic methods have been widely used in Solar System dynamics. This paper discusses both single step and multistep symplectic methods. For single step methods we point out that the modified algorithm (Wisdom et al., 1991, Kinoshita et. al., 1991) can be executed in the mass center coordinate system and in the Jacobian coordinate system. For multistep methods we describe the connections between symmetric and symplectic methods. 相似文献