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Flux-transport type solar dynamos have achieved considerable success in correctly simulating many solar cycle features, and are now being used for prediction of solar cycle timing and amplitude. We first define flux-transport dynamos and demonstrate how they work. The essential added ingredient in this class of models is meridional circulation, which governs the dynamo period and also plays a crucial role in determining the Sun’s memory about its past magnetic fields. We show that flux-transport dynamo models can explain many key features of solar cycles. Then we show that a predictive tool can be built from this class of dynamo that can be used to predict mean solar cycle features by assimilating magnetic field data from previous cycles.  相似文献   
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Meridional circulation in stellar convection zones is not generally well observed, but may be critical for the workings of MHD dynamos operating in these domains. Coriolis forces from differential rotation play a large role in determining what the meridional circulation is. Here, we consider the question of whether a stellar differential rotation that is constant on cylinders concentric with the rotation axis can drive a meridional circulation. Conventional wisdom says that it can not. Using two related forms of the governing equations that respectively estimate the longitudinal components of the curl of the meridional mass flux and the vorticity, we show that such differential rotation will drive a meridional flow. This is because to satisfy anelastic mass conservation, non-spherically symmetric pressure contours must be present for all differential rotations, not just ones that depart from constancy on cylinders concentric with the rotation axis. Therefore, the fluid is always baroclinic if differential rotation is present. This is because, in anelastic systems, the perturbation pressure must satisfy a Poisson type equation, as well as an equation of state and a thermodynamic equation. We support our qualitative reasoning with numerical examples, and show that meridional circulation is sensitive to the magnitude and form of departures from rotation constant on cylinders. The effect should be present in 3D global anelastic convection simulations, particularly those for which the differential rotation driven by global convection is nearly cylindrical in profile. For solar-like differential rotation, Coriolis forces generally drive a two-celled circulation in each hemisphere, with a second, reversed flow at high latitudes. For solar like turbulent viscosities, the meridional circulation produced by Coriolis forces is much larger than observed on the Sun. Therefore, there must be at least one additional force, probably a buoyancy force, which opposes the meridional flow to bring its amplitude down to observed values.  相似文献   
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Given the complexity involved in a flux-transport-type dynamo driven by both Babcock – Leighton and tachocline α effects, we present here a step-by-step procedure for building a flux-transport dynamo model calibrated to the Sun as a guide for anyone who wishes to build this kind of model. We show that a plausible sequence of steps to reach a converged solution in such a dynamo consists of (i) numerical integration of a classical α – ω dynamo driven by a tachocline α effect, (ii) continued integration with inclusion of meridional circulation to convert the model into a flux-transport dynamo driven by only a tachocline α effect, (iii) final integration with inclusion of a Babcock – Leighton surface α effect, resulting in a flux-transport dynamo that can be calibrated to obtain a close fit of model output with solar observations.  相似文献   
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We use the flux-transport dynamo prediction scheme introduced by Dikpati, de Toma, and Gilman (Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L05102, 2006) to make separate simulations and predictions of sunspot cycle peaks for northern and southern hemispheres. Despite the division of the data, the skill level achieved is only slightly lower than that achieved for the sum of both hemispheres. The model shows skill at simulating and predicting the difference in peaks between North and South, provided that difference is more than a few percent. The simulation and prediction skill is achieved without adjustment to any parameters of the model that were used when peaks for the sum of North and South sunspot areas was simulated. The results are also very insensitive to the averaging length applied to the input data, provided the simulations and predictions are for peaks defined by averaging the observations over at least 13 rotations. However, in its present form, the model is not capable of skillfully simulating or predicting short-time-scale features of individual solar cycles.  相似文献   
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Dikpati and Choudhuri (1994, 1995) developed a model for the poleward migration of the weak diffuse magnetic field on the Sun's surface. This field was identified with the poloidal component produced by the solar dynamo operating at the base of the convection zone, and its evolution was studied by considering the effects of meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. The earlier model is extended in this paper by incorporating the flux from, the decay of tilted active regions near the solar surface as an additional source of the poloidal field. This extended model can now explain various low-latitude features in the time-latitude diagram of the weak diffuse fields. These low-latitude features could not be accounted for in the earlier model, which was very successful in modeling the behavior at high latitudes. The time-latitude diagrams show that regions of a particular polarity often have tongues of opposite polarity. Such tongues can be produced in the theoretical model by incorporating fluctuations in the source term arising out of the decaying active regions.  相似文献   
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Although the sunspots migrate towards the equator, the large-scale weak diffuse magnetic fields of the Sun migrate poleward with the solar cycle, the polar field reversing at the time of the sunspot maxima. We apply the vector model of Dikpati and Choudhuri (1994, Paper I) to fit these observations. The dynamo layer at the base of the convection zone is taken to be the source of the diffuse field, which is then evolved in the convection zone subject to meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. We find that the longitudinally averaged observational data can be fitted reasonably well both for positive and negative values of the-effect by adjusting the subsurface meridional flow suitably. The model will be extended in a future paper to include the decay of active regions as an extra source of the diffuse field, which may be necessary to explain the probable phase lag betweenB r andB at lower latitudes.  相似文献   
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We assume the large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the Sun to originate from the poloidal component of a dynamo operating at the base of the convection zone, whereas the sunspots are due to the toroidal component. The evolution of the poloidal component is studied to model the poleward migration of the diffuse field seen on the solar surface and the polar reversal at the time of sunspots maxima (Dikpati and Choudhuri 1994, 1995).  相似文献   
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Observational and theoretical knowledge about global-scale solar dynamo ingredients have reached the stage that it is possible to calibrate a flux-transport dynamo for the Sun by adjusting only a few tunable parameters. The important ingredients in this class of model are differential rotation (Omega-effect), helical turbulence (alpha-effect), meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. The meridional circulation works as a conveyor belt and governs the dynamo cycle period. Meridional circulation and magnetic diffusivity together govern the memory of the Sun's past magnetic fields. After describing the physical processes involved in a flux-transport dynamo, we will show that a predictive tool can be built from it to predict mean solar cycle features by assimilating magnetic field data from previous cycles. We will discuss the theoretical and observational connections among various predictors, such as dynamo-generated toroidal flux integral, cross-equatorial flux, polar fields and geomagnetic indices. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   
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