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1.
J. Birkmann P. Buckle J. Jaeger M. Pelling N. Setiadi M. Garschagen N. Fernando J. Kropp 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(3):637-655
Disaster associated with natural hazards can lead to important changes—positive or negative—in socio-ecological systems. When
disasters occur, much attention is given to the direct disaster impacts as well as relief and recovery operations. Although
this focus is important, it is noteworthy that there has been little research on the characteristics and progress of change
induced by disasters. Change, as distinct from impacts, encompasses formal and informal responses to disaster events and their
direct and indirect impacts. While smaller disasters do not often lead to significant changes in societies and organizational
structures, major disasters have the potential to change dominant ways of thinking and acting. Against this background, the
article presents an analytical framework for distinguishing change from disaster impacts. Drawing from research in Sri Lanka
and Indonesia, formal and informal changes after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 are examined and discussed against the background
of the conceptual framework. The changes examined range from the commencement of the peace process in Aceh, Indonesia, to
organizational and legal reforms in Sri Lanka. The article concludes that change-making processes after disasters need to
be understood more in depth in order to derive important strategic policy and methodological lessons learned for the future,
particularly in view of the increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making due to climate change. 相似文献
2.
Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Simon N. Gosling Jason A. Lowe Glenn R. McGregor Mark Pelling Bruce D. Malamud 《Climatic change》2009,92(3-4):299-341
The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered. 相似文献
3.
An established numerical tidal model has been used to investigate the impact of various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, as well as SLR in combination with large-scale tidal power plants on European shelf tidal dynamics. Even moderate and realistic levels of future SLR are shown to have significant impacts on the tidal dynamics of the area. These changes are further enhanced when SLR and tidal power plants are considered in combination, resulting in changes to tidal amplitudes, currents and associated tidal dissipation and bed shear stresses. Sea-level rise is the dominant influence on any far-field impacts, whereas tidal power plants are shown to have the prevailing influence over any changes close to the point of energy extraction. The spatial extent of the impacts of energy extraction is shown to be affected by the sea level when more than one tidal power plant in the Irish Sea was considered. Different ways to implement SLR in the model are also discussed and shown to be of great significance for the response of the tides. 相似文献
4.
Critical adaptation to hurricanes in the Mexican Caribbean: Development visions, governance structures, and coping strategies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
David Manuel-Navarrete Mark Pelling Michael Redclift 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):249-258
The need to tackle climate hazards and development efforts simultaneously is widely acknowledged. However, the possibility of alternative visions of development is seldom contemplated. Instead, adaptation research usually assumes monolithic claims about development constructed from the status quo of global capitalism. This paper outlines a critical approach to adaptation and explores the interplay between visions of development, governance structures, and strategies to cope with hurricanes in the Mexican Caribbean, a region at the ‘front line’ of both globalization and climatic extreme phenomena. Critical adaptation formulates the experiencing of hazards as essentially political and tied to contingent development paths, which may eventually become hegemonic. Over a hundred semi-structured and open interviews were held in Cancun, Mahahual, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum including academics, businesspeople, bureaucrats, journalists, non-governmental organizations and tourism workers in order to characterize development visions in the Mexican Caribbean. Findings show a prevalent hegemonic vision supporting mass tourism growth which encourages hurricane coping strategies based on effective evacuation and attracting investments for rapid economic recovery. The actual implementation of this vision increases social inequalities, degrades ecosystems, and amplifies overall exposure to extreme events. Mass tourism is enforced by undemocratic governance structures sustained by a coalition of government and tourism corporations (a government-capital bloc in Gramsci's sense). Some weak signs of counter-hegemony were identified in Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Mahahual. These isolated episodes of resistance might have triggered alternative coping strategies despite having little effect in altering the overall course of development. Further critical research is needed to unveil the socio-political foundations of development visions and their influence on capacities to cope with climatic extreme events. 相似文献
5.
Adaptation and transformation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
6.
Near solar maximum, hard X-ray microflares with peak 20 keV fluxes of 10–2 (cm2 s keV)–1, more than ten times smaller than for typical flares and subflares, can occur at the rate of about once every five minutes. We report here on a search for hard X-ray microflares made on a long duration balloon flight in February 1987 near solar minimum, at a time when no active regions were on the Sun. No microflares were observed over a total observing time of 16.5 hours spread over three days, implying a statistical upper limit to their rate of occurrence about a factor often lower than observed near solar maximum. Thus hard X-ray microflaring appears to be an active region phenomenon, and apparently not associated with flaring of soft X-ray bright points. 相似文献
7.
R. P. Lin D. W. Curtis J. H. Primbsch P. R. Harvey W. K. Levedahl D. M. Smith R. M. Pelling F. Duttweiler K. Hurley 《Solar physics》1982,113(1-2):333-345
We describe a balloon payload designed to study the processes of energy release, particle acceleration, and heating of the active corona, in hard X-ray microflares and normal flares. An array of liquid nitrogen-cooled germanium detectors together with large area phoswich scintillation detectors provide the highest sensitivity (500 cm2) and energy resolution (0.7 keV) ever achieved for solar hard X-ray (15–600 keV) measurements. These detectors were flown in February 1987 from Australia on a long duration RAdiation COntrolled balloON (RACOON) flight (LDBF) which provided 12 days of observations before cutdown in Brazil. The payload includes solar cells for power, pointing and navigation sensors, a microprocessor controlled data system with VCR tape storage, and transmitters for GOES and ARGOS spacecraft. This successful flight illustrates the potential of LDBF's for solar flare studies.Also Physics Department.Presently at Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley CA 94720. 相似文献
8.
J. Birkmann O. D. Cardona M. L. Carreño A. H. Barbat M. Pelling S. Schneiderbauer S. Kienberger M. Keiler D. Alexander P. Zeil T. Welle 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(2):193-211
The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts. 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACTWhat can contemporary geographical research learn from Aadel Brun Tschudi? As a pioneer of development geography, Tschudi emphasised efficiency, equity and the responsibility of geographers to be active in society. While her contributions to development geography were made in the context of nation-building efforts in the mid–late 20th century, the globalising process of the early 21st century raise similar concerns for identity, emergent hierarchies of power and socio-environmental transformation. Using Tschudi’s cardinal principles of equity and efficiency, the paper identifies four action arenas and exemplifies these through interventions aimed at reducing risk and addressing unmet development challenges: (1) high efficiency, low equity (private sector led), (2) low efficiency, low equity (humanitarian sector led), (3) low efficiency, high equity (spontaneous local action), and (4) high efficiency, high equity (collaborative action). The analysis draws out the different ways in which the aspirations and policy communities that own the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 are interacting now and how far these interactions are able to deliver efficiency and equity for the poor in low- and middle-income countries, which is Tschudi’s primary concern. 相似文献
10.
The co-production of risk from a natural hazards perspective: science and policy interaction for landslide risk management in Italy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Soil erosion remains a critical concern worldwide, and predicting the occurrence, location, and evolution of rills on hillslopes and agricultural landscapes remains a fundamental challenge in resource management. To address these questions, a relatively large soil-mantled experimental landscape was subjected to continuous rainfall and episodes of base-level lowering to force the development of a rill network system, and high-resolution digital technologies were used to quantify its evolution over time and space. These results show that waves of degradation and landscape incision occurred in response to base-level lowering, where headcut development and its upstream migration produced a fourth-order rill network. Stream order indices derived for this incised rill network confirm that this pattern emerges relatively early in time, and it remains relatively unchanged despite continued application of rainfall and additional base-level lowering. Using the same digital technologies, a surface drainage system was defined and mapped on the landscape prior to any soil erosion and rill development, and similar network indices also were derived. These results show that network characteristics and organization of this surface drainage system, as well as its location in space, were in very close agreement with the subsequent incised rill network following base-level lowering. It is demonstrated here that rill networks formed in this experiment are strongly conditioned by surface drainage patterns prior to any significant soil erosion and that the location of rill networks can be accurately delineated through analysis of the high-resolution digital terrain. 相似文献