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1.
Summary During the first pilot phase of the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE) in September/October 1987 radiation measurements were carried out above and below broken cloud fields over the German Bight. Analyses of the measurements of 25.9.1987 (broken cumulus cloud field) showed an unexpected high absorption of solar radiation but not those of 28.9.1987 (stratocumulus/stratus cloud field). This might be explained by a partial negligence of cloud side factor under the viewing geometry of the pyranometer and other reasons. The light guide effect (leakage) within holes can account for the depletion of cloud reflectance and the enhancement of cloud transmittance at large cloud cover, as observed during the measurements on 28.9.1987. The fluctuation of the irradiances, which can be characterized by the intermittency parameter, has been related to the corresponding cloud cover by a regression equation. On the condition of similarity, this scaling parameter derived from sample measurements could be extrapolated to that of the whole cloud field. Thus, the estimation of the irradiance spectrum for the whole cloud field may be possible, from samples taken with aircraft and imaging data.With 5 Figures 相似文献
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Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity. 相似文献
3.
Charles?R.?SternEmail author Julien?M.?Allaz Markus?B.?Raschke G.?Lang?Farmer M.?Alexandra?Skewes Jeremy?T.?Ross 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(8):65
Aplite dikes intruding the Proterozoic 1.42(±?3) Ga Longs Peak-St. Vrain Silver Plume-type peraluminous granite near Jamestown, Colorado, contain F, P, and rare earth element (REE)-rich globular segregations, with 40–46% REE, 3.7–4.8 wt% P2O5, and 5–8 wt% F. A combination of textural features and geochemical data suggest that the aplite and REE-rich globular segregations co-existed as two co-genetic liquids prior to their crystallization, and we propose that they are formed by silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate (+?S?+?CO2) melt immiscibility following ascent, cooling, and decompression of what was initially a single homogeneous magma that intruded the granite. The REE distribution coefficients between the silica-rich aplites and REE-rich segregations are in good agreement with experimentally determined distribution coefficients for immiscible silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate melts. Although monazite-(Ce) and uraninite U–Th–Pb microprobe ages for the segregations yield 1.420(±?25) and 1.442(±?8) Ga, respectively, thus suggesting a co-genetic relationship with their host granite, εNd1.42Ga values for the granites and related granitic pegmatites range from ??3.3 to ??4.7 (average ??3.9), and differ from the values for both the aplites and REE-rich segregations, which range from ??1.0 to ??2.2 (average ??1.6). Furthermore, the granites and pegmatites have (La/Yb)N <50 with significant negative Eu anomalies, which contrast with higher (La/Yb)N >100 and absence of an Eu anomaly in both the aplites and segregations. These data are consistent with the aplite dikes and the REE-rich segregations they contain being co-genetic, but derived from a source different from that of the granite. The higher εNd1.42Ga values for the aplites and REE-rich segregations suggest that the magma from which they separated had a more mafic and deeper, dryer and hotter source in the lower crust or upper mantle compared to the quartzo-feldspathic upper crustal source proposed for the Longs Peak-St. Vrain granite. 相似文献
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5.
Summary A hybrid method is developed for the estimation of the daytime downward longwave radiation flux (DLF) at the surface. The method makes use of the grid point thermodynamic fields at the surface and at the 1000 and 850 hPa levels. The cloud parameters are derived from the infrared and visible image data of the satellite METEOSAT-2. The calculation of the DLF is split into a clear-sky contribution, which is calculated from empirical formulae, and a cloud contribution which depends on cloud amount, cloud base height, and temperature.A sensitivity test to perturbations in the relevant parameters resembles closely the response of a multispectral radiation scheme, however the humidity dependence under clear sky has been identified as a weak point. A comparison of the method using observed input parameters with simultaneous measurements of the DLF yields an RMS error of 12.2 W/m2.The method is applied for mapping the DLF over western Europe and the Mediterranean using satellite images for two days near midday and ancillary grid point data obtained during the ALPEX experiment. A comparison with ground measurements of 4 stations in West Germany shows a mean deviation of 3.9 W/m2 and an RMS error of 11.6 W/m2. The method is a first attempt to estimate the DLF at regional scales from satellite data on the cloud field and grid point analysis data on the thermodynamic field.
With 10 Figures 相似文献
Zusammenfassung Zur Schätzung des abwärts gerichteten langwelligen Strahlungsflusses (DLF) während des Tages an der Erdoberfläche wird eine Hybridmethode entwickelt. Die Methode verwendet Gitterpunkt-thermodynamische Felder am Boden und auf den 1000 und 850 h Pa-Flächen. Die Wolkenparameter stammen von den Bilddaten im infraroten und sichtbaren Bereich des Satelliten METEOSAT-2. Die Berechnung des DLF teilt sich in einen, aus empirischen Formeln berechneten Beitrag des wolkenlosen Himmels und einen Beitrag durch Wolken, welcher von der Wolkenmenge, von der Höhe der Wolkenbasis und der Temperatur abhängt.Ein Test der Empfindlichkeit auf Störungen in den relevanten Parametern ist der Reaktion eines multispektraligen Strahlungsschemas sehr ähnlich, obwohl die Feuchtigkeitsabhängigkeit unter wolkenlosem Himmel als Schwachpunkt herausgefunden wurde. Ein Vergleich der Methode unter Verwendung beobachteter Inputparameter bei gleichzeitigen Messungen des DLF ergibt einen RMS-Fehler von 12.2 W/m2.Diese Methode wird für die Kartierung des DLF über Westeuropa und dem Mittelmeer angewendet. Dazu werden Satellitenbilder von zwei Tagen um Mittag und zusätzliche Gitterpunktdaten, die während des ALPEX-Experiments gewonnen wurden, verwendet. Ein Vergleich mit Bodenmessungen von 4 Stationen in West-deutschland zeigt eine mittlere Abweichung von 3.9 W/m2 und einen RMS-Fehler von 11.6 W/m2. Diese Methode ist ein erster Versuch, den DLF im regionalen Bereich aus Satellitendaten des Wolkenfeldes und Gitterpunkt-Analysedaten des thermodynamischen Feldes zu schätzen.
With 10 Figures 相似文献
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Mathias Raschke 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(2):701-707
In this short note, I comment on the research of Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys 171:1599–1624, 2014) regarding the extreme value theory and statistics in the case of earthquake magnitudes. The link between the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as an asymptotic model for the block maxima of a random variable and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a model for the peaks over threshold (POT) of the same random variable is presented more clearly. Inappropriately, Pisarenkoet al. (Pure Appl. Geophys 171:1599–1624, 2014) have neglected to note that the approximations by GEVD and GPD work only asymptotically in most cases. This is particularly the case with truncated exponential distribution (TED), a popular distribution model for earthquake magnitudes. I explain why the classical models and methods of the extreme value theory and statistics do not work well for truncated exponential distributions. Consequently, these classical methods should be used for the estimation of the upper bound magnitude and corresponding parameters. Furthermore, I comment on various issues of statistical inference in Pisarenkoet al. and propose alternatives. I argue why GPD and GEVD would work for various types of stochastic earthquake processes in time, and not only for the homogeneous (stationary) Poisson process as assumed by Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys 171:1599–1624, 2014). The crucial point of earthquake magnitudes is the poor convergence of their tail distribution to the GPD, and not the earthquake process over time. 相似文献
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Modeling of magnitude distributions by the generalized truncated exponential distribution 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mathias Raschke 《Journal of Seismology》2015,19(1):265-271
8.
The beta distribution is used in different models of environmental research. The power of the test for beta distribution of
Raschke [Biased transformation and its application in goodness-of-fit tests for the beta and gamma distribution. Commun. Statist.
B–Computa. Simula. 38 (2009): 1870–1890] is researched here. The power of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Kuiper, Cramér-von Mises,
Watson and Anderson–Darling tests are researched for different sample sizes, levels of significance and parameters of the
beta distribution. The limitation to these tests is discussed including the differences between previous publications. The
empirical behaviour is investigated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations. The most powerful test for the beta distribution
is the Anderson–Darling test for the considered constellations of alternative distribution, contamination or scaling. The
second best test is the Cramér-von Mises test, followed by the Watson test. The analysis of relative humidity data of meteorology
and of runoff coefficients of the hydrology demonstrates the advantages of the new tests and the necessity to test an assumption
of beta distribution. 相似文献
9.
Summary The diurnal variation of the Earth Radiation Budget and its components require for sparsely temporal sampling a high amount of modeling for the derivation of precise daily averages. In the present study the time integration errors of the regional monthly averages of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (Barkstrom, 1984) are estimated for April 1985. For this error assessment we made use of data of the European geostationary satellite Meteosat 2 which narrowbanded measurements have been converted to reasonable estimates of broad-band radiation fluxes. Based on this data set the measurements of the ERBE satellites, ERBS, NOAA 9, and NOAA 10 are simulated. For the time integration the ERBE time integration models are used.The mean error for the regional monthly average of the net radiation flux varies between — 3 and + 5 W/m2 for the combination of all three satellites. The largest contribution to this uncertainty is given by the time integration of the shortwave fluxes. A new approach for the time integration procedure is presented which is based on the Maximum Entropy spectral analysis of temporal high resolution data sets as provided by geostationary satellites.This study closes with the estimation of the final error for ERBE regional monthly averages of the net radiation flux, which includes the uncertainties of the instruments, the inversion process and the time integration process. These errors lie between 11.1 W/m2 for single NOAA 9 products and 7.8 W/m2 for the combination of all three satellites. With that the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment fulfills the required accuracy.With 12 Figures 相似文献
10.
Mathias Raschke 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(1):21-34
In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In essence, I contend that the individual random component is reproduced adequately by a simple stochastic mechanism of random impulses acting in the horizontal plane, with random directions. The random number of impulses was Poisson distributed. The parameters of the model were estimated according to a proposal by Raschke J Seismol 17(4):1157–1182, (2013a), with the sample of random difference ξ?=?ln(Y 1 )-ln(Y 2 ), in which Y 1 and Y 2 are the horizontal components of local ground-motion intensity. Any GMR element was eliminated by subtraction, except the individual random components. In the estimation procedure, the distribution of difference ξ was approximated by combining a large Monte Carlo simulated sample and Kernel smoothing. The estimated model satisfactorily fitted the difference ξ of the sample of peak ground accelerations, and the variance of the individual random components was considerably smaller than that of conventional GMRs. In addition, the dependence of variance on the epicentre distance was considered; however, a dependence of variance on the magnitude was not detected. Finally, the influence of the novel model and the corresponding approximations on PSHA was researched. The applied approximations of distribution of the individual random component were satisfactory for the researched example of PSHA. 相似文献