Modelling the effect of land management interventions and climate change on sediment loads in the Manawatū–Whanganui region     

Les Basher  Raphael Spiekermann  John Dymond  Alex Herzig  Ella Hayman  Anne-Gaelle Ausseil 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2020,54(3):490-511

ABSTRACT

SedNetNZ is used to model the effect of erosion control undertaken under the Sustainable Land Use Initiative (SLUI) and predict the effect of climate change on sediment load in the Manawatū–Whanganui region. Sediment load in 2004 is estimated at 13.4?Mt?yr^?1; by 2018, ≈5000?km² of land had farm plans implemented and annual sediment load reduced by 6.2% of the 2004 load. If SLUI stops at the 2018 level of implementation, by 2038 it is predicted to achieve a 15.7% reduction in annual sediment load. If SLUI continues to implement farm plans, 7949?km² of land will be treated by 2043 and annual sediment load could be reduced by a further 14.7%. Climate change is predicted to substantially increase sediment loads. By 2043 annual sediment load for the region is predicted to increase, compared to 2004, by between 8.3 and 23.7%. However, this can largely be offset by SLUI works. By 2090 an annual sediment load increase of between 53 and 224% due to climate change is predicted. The results suggest climate warming may dominate changes in sediment load in the future.  相似文献   

Remote sensing methods to detect land‐use/cover changes in New Zealand's ‘indigenous’ grasslands     

Emily S. Weeks  Anne‐Gaelle E. Ausseil  James D. Shepherd  John R. Dymond 《New Zealand geographer》2013,69(1):1-13

We compared four remote sensing methods to detect changes in New Zealand's grasslands (image differencing, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) differencing post‐classification and visual interpretation). The visual interpretation resulted in the best classification results, with a 98% overall accuracy when compared with ground‐truthed data. The tests on automatic classification (image differencing, NDVI differencing) and post classification had much lower accuracies, ranging from 47% to 56%. In the New Zealand grassland landscape, automatic detection methods were not able to differentiate between variations of soil moisture and vegetation phenology from variations in land‐use change. This, in combination with topographic effects, which have hampered the automated mapping of vegetation, is the main reason why visual interpretation of high‐resolution imagery is still needed.  相似文献   

Validation of a region-wide model of landslide susceptibility in the Manawatu–Wanganui region of New Zealand     

John R. Dymond  Anne-Gaelle Ausseil  James D. Shepherd  Lars Buettner 《Geomorphology》2006,74(1-4):70-79

Since European settlement 160 years ago, much of the indigenous forest in New Zealand hill country has been cleared for pastoral agriculture, resulting in increased erosion and sedimentation. To prioritise soil conservation work in the Manawatu–Wanganui region, we developed a model of landslide susceptibility. It assigns high susceptibility to steep land not protected by woody vegetation and low susceptibility everywhere else, following the commonly used approach for identifying inappropriate land use. A major storm on 15–16 February 2004 that produced many landslides was used to validate the model. The model predicted hills at risk to landsliding with moderate accuracy: 58% of erosion scars in the February storm occurred on hillsides considered to be susceptible. The model concept of slope thresholds, above which the probability of landsliding is high and below which the probability is low, is not adequate because below 30° the probability of landsliding is approximately linearly related to slope. Thus, reforestation of steep slopes will need to be combined with improved vegetation management for soil conservation on moderate slopes to significantly reduce future landsliding.  相似文献