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1.
Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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We present the discovery and follow-up observations of 142 pulsars found in the Parkes 20-cm multibeam pulsar survey of the Galactic plane. These new discoveries bring the total number of pulsars found by the survey to 742. In addition to tabulating spin and astrometric parameters, along with pulse width and flux density information, we present orbital characteristics for 13 binary pulsars which form part of the new sample. Combining these results from another recent Parkes multibeam survey at high Galactic latitudes, we have a sample of 1008 normal pulsars which we use to carry out a determination of their Galactic distribution and birth rate. We infer a total Galactic population of  30 000 ± 1100  potentially detectable pulsars (i.e. those beaming towards us) having 1.4-GHz luminosities above 0.1 mJy kpc2. Adopting the Tauris & Manchester beaming model, this translates to a total of  155 000 ± 6000  active radio pulsars in the Galaxy above this luminosity limit. Using a pulsar current analysis, we derive the birth rate of this population to be  1.4 ± 0.2  pulsars per century. An important conclusion from our work is that the inferred radial density function of pulsars depends strongly on the assumed distribution of free electrons in the Galaxy. As a result, any analyses using the most recent electron model of Cordes & Lazio predict a dearth of pulsars in the inner Galaxy. We show that this model can also bias the inferred pulsar scaleheight with respect to the Galactic plane. Combining our results with other Parkes multibeam surveys we find that the population is best described by an exponential distribution with a scaleheight of 330 pc. Surveys underway at Parkes and Arecibo are expected to improve the knowledge of the radial distribution outside the solar circle, and to discover several hundred new pulsars in the inner Galaxy.  相似文献   
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This paper adopts standard tests developed in temperate catchment research to determine the total phosphorus (TP) and the algal available (base‐extractable) phosphorus (NaOH–P) content of a wide range of glaciofluvial sediments from the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the TP content of these sediments is broadly similar to the P content of major rock types in Earth's crust (230–670 µgP/g) and so the TP yields of glacier basins may be high owing to the efficacy of suspended sediment evacuation by glacial meltwaters. We show that this is best achieved where subglacial drainage systems are present. The NaOH–P pool of the sediments is found to be low (1–23 µgP/g) relative to the TP pool and also to the NaOH–P pool of suspended sediments in temperate, non‐glacierized catchments. This most probably reflects the restricted duration of intimate contact between dilute meltwaters and glacial suspended sediments during the ablation season. Thus, despite the high surface‐area:volume ratio of glacial suspended sediments, the potential for P adsorption to mineral surfaces following release by dissolution is also low. Further, sorption experiments and sequential extraction tests conducted using glacial suspended sediments from two Svalbard catchments indicate that the generation of reactive secondary minerals (e.g. Fe‐ and other hydroxides) with a strong capacity to scavenge P from solution (and thereby promote the continued dissolution of P) may also be limited by the short residence times. Most P is therefore associated with poorly weathered, calcite/apatite‐rich mineral phases. However, we use examples from the Svalbard glacier basins (Austre Brøggerbreen and Midre Lovénbreen) to show that the high sediment yields of glaciers may result in appreciable NaOH–P loading of ice‐marginal receiving waters. Again, the importance of subglacial drainage is highlighted, as it produces a major, episodic release of NaOH–P at Midre Lovénbreen that results in a yield (8·2 kg NaOH–P/km2/year) more than one order of magnitude greater than that at Austre Brøggerbreen (where subglacial drainage is absent and the yield is 0·48 kg NaOH‐P/km2/year). Therefore, as since both detrimental and beneficial effects of sediment‐bound P loading in ice marginal receiving waters are possible (i.e. either reduced primary productivity owing to increased turbidity or P fertilization following desorption) there is a pressing need to assess the ambient P status of such environments and also the capacity for ice‐marginal ecosystems to adapt to such inputs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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We report on the discovery of three new pulsars in the first blind survey of the north Galactic plane  (45° < l < 135°; | b | < 1°)  with the Giant Meterwave Radio telescope (GMRT) at an intermediate frequency of 610 MHz. The survey covered 106 deg2 with a sensitivity of roughly 1 mJy to long-period pulsars (pulsars with period longer than 1 s). The three new pulsars have periods of 318, 933 and 1056 ms. Their timing parameters and flux densities, obtained in follow-up observations with the Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank and the GMRT, are presented. We also report on pulse nulling behaviour in one of the newly discovered pulsars, PSR J2208+5500.  相似文献   
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Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (B n ) and tangential (B t ) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (P eff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases B n and B t , which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of B n are significantly higher than those of B t at low P eff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption B n  ≈ B t commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio B n /B t actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of B n against B t plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits.  相似文献   
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Curator Debbie James reports on developments at the Herschel House Museum in Bath, once the home of William and Caroline Herschel.  相似文献   
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Two unusual subaerial exposure horizons containing fibrous columnar calcite crystals are described from the (early Chadian) Lower Carboniferous of Portishead, near Bristol in southwest Britain. The lower horizon overlies the Courceyan Black Rock Limestone (mid-ramp facies) and is separated from the upper horizon by the Sub-Oolite Bed and is overlain by the Chadian Gully Oolite (both are inner ramp deposits). Regionally the Portishead Palaeosol Beds are interpreted as forming part of extensive emergent surfaces which developed along the southern margin of the Welsh–Brabant Massif. They correlate with similar subaerial exposure horizons in Belgium and southern Germany, and may be the product of a proposed major eustatic sea level fall at the end of the Courceyan.  相似文献   
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A detailed sedimentary study of the Lower Carboniferous (Courceyan) Shipway Limestone Formation at Three Cliffs Bay on the Gower Peninsula (South Wales) has shown that the bioclastic limestones represent a storm-dominated sequence that contains the storm-related sedimentary structure hummocky cross-stratification (HCS). Conformably overlying the Shipway Limestone is a cross-stratified oolitic sandbody with evidence of subaerial exposure. Six sedimentary lithofacies are identified in these two formations which record a distal to proximal, shallowing-upward trend that passes from beneath mean wave-base to above fairweather wave-base. The shallow marine facies model constructed by Wu (1982) from his study of the Lower Carboniferous limestone sequences of South Wales is re-evaluated. Modifications proposed for the model include the addition of two distal tempestite facies and a proximal oolite sand body. The Shipway Limestone and Brofiscin Oolite record the first major, basin-wide, shallowing-upward phase of the Lower Carboniferous in South Wales.  相似文献   
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