Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex,central coastal British Columbia,Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake     

Jennifer M. Galloway  Christine T. Doherty  R. Timothy Patterson  Helen M. Roe 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(4):322-335

A pollen‐based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740 ± 70 ¹⁴C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860 ± 50 ¹⁴C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso‐ to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi‐permanent air mass. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jennifer M. Olson  Gopal Alagarswamy 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):898-911

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.  相似文献   

Seasonal variations of alkenones and U₃₇ in the Chesapeake Bay water column     

Jennifer L. Mercer  Meixun Zhao  Steven M. Colman   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,63(4):675-682

Alkenone unsaturation indices (U^K₃₇ and U^K′₃₇) have long been used as proxies for surface water temperature in the open ocean. Recent studies have suggested that in other marine environments, variables other than temperature may affect both the production of alkenones and the values of the indices. Here, we present the results of a reconnaissance field study in which alkenones were extracted from particulate matter filtered from the water column in Chesapeake Bay during 2000 and 2001. A multivariate analysis shows a strong positive correlation between U^K₃₇ (and U^K′₃₇) values and temperature, and a significant negative correlation between U^K₃₇ (and U^K′₃₇) values and nitrate concentrations. However, temperature and nitrate concentrations also co-vary significantly. The temperature vs. U^K₃₇ relationships (U^K₃₇=0.018 (T)−0.162, R²=0.84, U^K′₃₇=0.013 (T)−0.04, R²=0.80) have lower slopes than the open-ocean equations of Prahl et al. [1988. Further evaluation of long-chain alkenones as indicators of paleoceanographic conditions. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 52, 2303–2310] and Müller et al. [1998. Calibration of the alkenone paleotemperature index U^K′₃₇ based on core-tops from the eastern South Atlantic and the global ocean (60°N–60°S). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 62, 1757–1772], but are similar to the relationships found in controlled studies with elevated nutrient levels and higher nitrate:phosphate (N:P) ratios. This implies that high nutrient levels in Chesapeake Bay have either lowered the U^K₃₇ vs. temperature slope, or nutrient levels are the main controller of the U^K₃₇ index. In addition, particularly high abundances (>5% of total C₃₇ alkenones) of the tetra-unsaturated ketone, C_37:4, were found when water temperatures reached 25 °C or higher, thus posing further questions about the controls on alkenone production as well as the biochemical roles of alkenones.  相似文献   

Inter-annual variability in larval supply to populations of three invertebrate taxa in the northern California Current     

Stephen R. Wing  Louis W. Botsford  Lance E. Morgan  Jennifer M. Diehl  Carolyn J. Lundquist 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,57(5-6):859-872

We investigated sources of inter-annual variability in larval supply to crab and sea urchin populations at Bodega Head and Point Reyes in northern California. During the spring and summer upwelling seasons of the years 1992 through 1997 we monitored the weekly settlement rates of nine species of crabs and two species of sea urchins. As observed in previous studies, daily values of alongshore windstress, temperature and salinity provided evidence for the poleward flow of relatively warm, low salinity water from south of Point Reyes, an apparent retention zone, during upwelling relaxation events. In years dominated by these events (1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996) we observed that alongshore windstress, temperature and salinity were coherent and temperature was significantly correlated with cancrid crab settlement. During these years the magnitude of cancrid crab settlement and the fraction of cancrid crabs relative to other crab species settling were high. Over four years of concurrent sampling there was consistently greater cancrid crab settlement at the Point Reyes site, within the retention zone, than at Bodega Head. Settlement of non-cancrid crabs (porcellanids, grapsids, pagurids and majids) was not as closely linked to intra-annual patterns of upwelling and relaxation, possibly due to the shorter seasonal availability of larvae allowing for the influence of fewer relaxation events. Settlement of this group among years was positively correlated with environmental indicators of strong seasonal upwelling; high salinity, Bakun upwelling index and low temperature. Sea urchin settlement events were observed in June and July of 1992, 1994 and 1997 during warming periods when salinity and temperature were increasing and alongshore windstress was low. Across the six years of the study, we found that cancrid crab larvae had a more even seasonal availability than larvae of non-cancrid species, which settled in greatest numbers during the early portion of the upwelling season. Sea urchins settled in greatest numbers during the later part of the upwelling season. Together these patterns demonstrate the taxon-specific way that inter-annual variability in larval supply is forced by the coincidence of larval availability with favorable physical transport mechanisms.  相似文献   

Ten-year record of Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii population dynamics: comparison of aquaculture and non-aquaculture sites in the Quoddy Region     

Smith  Aaron C.; Martin  Jennifer L.; Ehrman  James M.; Kaczmarska  Irena 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(2):391-397

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Relative abundance, age, growth, and fecundity of grubby Myoxocephalus aenaeus in Niantic River and Niantic Bay, Long Island Sound     

Edward F. Roseman  Christine A. Tomichek  Tracy Maynard  Jennifer A. Burton 《Journal of Sea Research》2005,53(4):309-318

Grubby (Myoxocephalus aenaeus, Cottidae) is a common benthic fish of inshore waters and estuaries of eastern Long Island Sound; however, little information exists on their life history or population demographics. This study utilised a long-term data series (1976–2002) to assess grubby life history and population demographics and explores trends in the Niantic River and Niantic Bay populations. In addition, we examined the age, size, and fecundity of adult grubby in 2001–02 to determine the population characteristics in the region. Mean grubby catch per unit effort (CPUE) in Niantic Bay ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1976 to 2.9 per trawl in 1984 while river CPUE ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1977 to 7.6 per trawl in 1989. Catch of grubby in bottom trawls varied seasonally with highest CPUE occurring in winter. Highest entrainment of grubby larvae occurred in 2001 while the lowest entrainment observed was in 1991. Four age classes, 0+ through III+, were derived from otolith analysis (N = 51) although length frequency analysis suggested the possibility of older fish in the population. The total number of eggs in ovaries ranged from 286 to 16 451 for grubby (N = 64) between 52 mm and 155 mm TL. Results of this study indicated a decline in abundance of adult grubby over the 26-year period, possibly related to concurrent declines in eelgrass (Zostera marina) abundance and/or increased water temperature.  相似文献   

Seasonal variation in lysosomal destabilization in oysters,Crassostrea virginica     

Ringwood AH  Hoguet J  Keppler CJ 《Marine environmental research》2002,54(3-5):793-797

Lysosomal destabilization assays have been used as valuable biomarkers of pollutant exposures in a variety of bivalve and fish species. The responses of oysters, Crassostrea virginica, deployed at and native to various reference and degraded sites were evaluated for lysosomal destabilization during both summer and winter seasons. In both native and deployed oysters, lysosomal destabilization rates tended to be higher during the winter at both reference and polluted sites. There are at least two hypothetical explanations. Greater lysosomal destabilization rates may be related to physiological changes associated with mobilization of nutrient reserves during the winter and gametogenesis. However, lysosomal destabilization in deployed oysters was correlated with tissue metal concentrations. These data also support a second hypothesis that seasonal differences in physico-chemical factors (such as reduced levels of acid volatile sulfides) may increase the bioavailability of metals during the winter so that adverse effects are more pronounced.  相似文献   

Effects of organochlorine compounds on cytochrome P450 aromatase activity in an immortal sea turtle cell line     

Keller JM  McClellan-Green P 《Marine environmental research》2004,58(2-5):347-351

Many classes of environmental contaminants affect the reproductive function of animals through interactions with the endocrine system. The primary components affected by endocrine active compounds (EACs) are the steroid receptors and the enzymes responsible for steroidogenesis. This study sought to develop an in vitro model for assessing EAC effects in sea turtles by examining their ability to alter cytochrome P450 aromatase (CYP19) activity. Aromatase is the enzyme responsible for the conversion of testosterone to estradiol. This enzyme is critical in the sexual differentiation of reptiles which demonstrate temperature-dependent sex determination. An immortal testis cell line GST-TS from a green sea turtle was grown in culture at 30 degrees C in RPMI 1640 media. The cells were exposed to three known aromatase inducers; dexamethasone (Dex), 8Br-cyclic AMP, or human chronic gonadotropin (HCG) and one aromatase inhibitor 4-androstenol-dione (4-OHA). In addition, the GST-TS cells were exposed to 0.1-30 microM atrazine and 3-100 microM 4,4'-DDE. The inducing compounds that have been shown to increase aromatase activity in other systems failed to induce aromatase activity in the GST-TS cells, yet exposure to the inhibiting compound, 4-OHA, did result in a significant reduction. Atrazine (0.1, 1.0 and 10 microM) significantly induced aromatase activity following a 24 h exposure, and 4,4'-DDE inhibited the activity but only at cytotoxic concentrations (100 microM). Based on these results, this in vitro model can be useful in examining the endocrine effects of EACs in sea turtles.  相似文献   

Chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland     

Sean W. Campbell  John C. Dixon  Colin E. Thorn  & Robert G. Darmody 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2002,84(3&4):179-185

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, northern Sweden. The chemical flux rates within the valley are strongly influenced by the local geology. Chemical denudation rates determined for the study period are more than double those previously reported in the literature for this valley. Rates of greater than 46t km⁻² a⁻¹ were measured at the valley mouth over the course of the melt season. This difference is likely due to differences in measurement technique compared to that used by past researchers. This rate is also much higher than for other arctic and alpine watersheds. Chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is comparable to larger temperate rivers. The rapid chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is likely due to sulfide weathering creating acid solutions.  相似文献