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Limitations associated with deterministic methods to quantify demands and develop rational acceptance criteria have led to the emergence of probabilistic procedures in performance‐based seismic engineering. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research performance‐based methodology is one such approach. In this paper, the impact of certain modelling decisions made at different stages of the evaluation process on the performance assessment of a typical multi‐bent viaduct is examined. Modelling, in the context of this paper, covers hazard modelling, structural modelling and loss modelling. The specific application considered in this study is a section of an existing viaduct in California: the I‐880 interstate highway. Several simulation models of the viaduct are developed, a series of nonlinear time‐history analyses are carried out to predict demands, measures of damage are evaluated and the probability of closure of the viaduct is estimated using the specified hazard for the site. It is concluded that the methodology offers several advantages over existing deterministic performance‐based procedures. Results of the investigation indicate that the assessment methodology is particularly sensitive to the reliability of decisions made by bridge inspectors following a seismic event, and to the dispersion in the demand estimation, which in turn is influenced by several factors including soil–structure interaction effects and ground motion scaling procedures. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The Loreto Bay National Park was established to protect the area's ecosystems from habitat destruction and overexploitation. However, the park has not met two of its primary goals: recovery of commercially valuable fish populations and their sustainable use by stakeholders. Based on evidence from the literature, dialogue with stakeholders, a literature review on using recreational fees for marine protected area (MPA) management, and an economic valuation survey, we provide practical guidelines for addressing factors hindering the park's success. These include: 1) the implementation of management based upon ecosystem science, and rigorous monitoring of park ecosystems, 2) increased communication among stake-holder groups, outreach and education, and 3) a re-organization of the park's administrative structure that would allow for more efficient use of funds. Our results also suggest that the park entrance fee could be raised to support these proposed improvements. 相似文献
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Matthew S. Lachniet Leah Johnson Yemane Asmerom Stephen J. Burns Victor Polyak William P. Patterson Lindsay Burt April Azouz 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(27-28):3348-3360
We present a high-resolution terrestrial archive of Central American rainfall over the period 100–24 and 8.1–6.5 ka, based on δ18O time series from U-series dated stalagmites collected from a cave on the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica. Our results indicate substantial δ18O variability on millennial to orbital time scales that is interpreted to reflect rainfall variations over the cave site. Correlations with other paleoclimate proxy records suggest that the rainfall variations are forced by sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in a fashion analogous to the modern climate cycle. Higher rainfall is associated with periods of a warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean and large SST gradients between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Rainfall variability is likely linked to the intensity and/or latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Periods of higher rainfall in Costa Rica are also associated with an enhanced sea surface salinity gradient on either side of the isthmus, suggesting greater freshwater export from the Atlantic Basin when the ITCZ is stronger and/or in a more northerly position. Further, wet periods in Central America coincide with high deuterium excess values in Greenland ice, suggesting a direct link between low latitude SSTs, tropical rainfall, and moisture delivery to Greenland. Our results indicate that a stronger tropical hydrological cycle during warm periods and large inter-ocean SST gradients enhanced the delivery of low latitude moisture to Greenland. 相似文献
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Okuhata Brytne K. El-Kadi Aly I. Dulai Henrietta Lee Jonghyun Wada Christopher A. Bremer Leah L. Burnett Kimberly M. Delevaux Jade M. S. Shuler Christopher K. 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(1):231-250
Hydrogeology Journal - Fresh groundwater is a critical resource supporting coastal ecosystems that rely on low-salinity, nutrient-rich groundwater discharge. This resource, however, is subject to... 相似文献
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Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Alex de Sherbinin Leah K. VanWey Kendra McSweeney Rimjhim Aggarwal Alisson Barbieri Sabine Henry Lori M. Hunter Wayne Twine Robert Walker 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(1):38-53
This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided. 相似文献
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Leah E. Morgan Madicken Munk Brett Davidheiser‐Kroll Nicholas H. Warner Sanjeev Gupta Rachel Slaybaugh Patrick Harkness Darren F. Mark 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(3):381-396
The chronology of the Solar System, particularly the timing of formation of extra‐terrestrial bodies and their features, is an outstanding problem in planetary science. Although various chronological methods for in situ geochronology have been proposed (e.g., Rb‐Sr, K‐Ar), and even applied (K‐Ar), the reliability, accuracy, and applicability of the 40Ar/39Ar method makes it by far the most desirable chronometer for dating extra‐terrestrial bodies. The method however relies on the neutron irradiation of samples, and thus a neutron source. Herein, we discuss the challenges and feasibility of deploying a passive neutron source to planetary surfaces for the in situ application of the 40Ar/39Ar chronometer. Requirements in generating and shielding neutrons, as well as analysing samples are described, along with an exploration of limitations such as mass, power and cost. Two potential solutions for the in situ extra‐terrestrial deployment of the 40Ar/39Ar method are presented. Although this represents a challenging task, developing the technology to apply the 40Ar/39Ar method on planetary surfaces would represent a major advance towards constraining the timescale of solar system formation and evolution. 相似文献
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The Ethiopian highlands are a center of diversity for numerous globally important crops. Heterogeneous landscapes, traditional agricultural practices, and inaccessibility have created and maintained diverse subsistence agroecosystems. We surveyed sixty-three farms in twelve communities of the Gamo highlands and found high levels of on-farm diversity of crop species and varieties. The extent and nature of this diversity are related to both ecological factors, namely elevation, and anthropogenic factors such as land-use history, accessibility to markets and extension, and strength and scale of farmer exchange networks. These human landscape features have the potential to both enhance and mediate effects of elevation and other environmental factors on crop diversity. The interaction of environmental and anthropogenic forces on the diversity of crops grown by farmers affects the strategies farmers employ to adapt their farming to changing conditions. 相似文献
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Paul R. Renne Alan L. Deino Willis E. Hames Matthew T. Heizler Sidney R. Hemming Kip V. Hodges Anthony A.P. Koppers Darren F. Mark Leah E. Morgan David Phillips Brad S. Singer Brent D. Turrin Igor M. Villa Mike Villeneuve Jan R. Wijbrans 《Quaternary Geochronology》2009,4(5):346-352
Data reported in 40Ar/39Ar geochronology studies are commonly insufficient to allow computation of ages. This deficiency renders it difficult to compare ages based on different standards or constants, and often hinders critical evaluation of the results. Herein are presented an enumeration of the data that should be reported in all 40Ar/39Ar studies, including a discussion in support of these requirements. The minimum required data are identified and distinguished from parameters that are useful but may be derived from them by calculation. Finally, recommendations are made for metadata needed to document age calculations (e.g., from age spectrum or isochron analyses). 相似文献
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Diana Tingley Jóhann Ásmundsson Edward Borodzicz Alexis Conides Ben Drakeford Ingi Rúnar Eðvarðsson Dennis Holm Kostas Kapiris Sakari Kuikka Bogi Mortensen 《Marine Policy》2010
This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control. 相似文献